WHAT THE EP ELECTIONS MEAN FOR HUNGARY

UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000388 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR EUR/CE LAMORE EB FOR JENNIFER BOGER COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/OIPR/ SILVIA SAVICH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL EU HU SUBJECT: WHAT THE EP ELECTIONS MEAN FOR HUNGARY REF: BUDAPEST 362 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Landslide opposition victory is forecasted for Hungary's June 7 European Parliamentary (EP) elections when voters will elect 22 representatives to go to Brussels. As expected, domestic issues dominate party campaigns. With the MSzP expected to suffer a major defeat, opposition parties are hoping it will shake socialist MP support for the Bajnai government and lead to early elections. The smaller MDF and liberal SzDSz parties are polling poorly and their failure to cross the five percent threshold will severely cloud their futures. More worrying, however, is pollsters' predictions that the far-right Jobbik party could enter the European Parliament. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Hungarians go to the polls on June 7 to elect 22 members to the European Parliament, two fewer members than in 2004, as recent EU enlargement cost Hungary two seats. Although 21 parties announced the intent to run in early 2009, eight finally managed to collect the 20,000 supporting signatures required by Hungary's electoral law. Parties must receive five percent of all the votes cast in order to win a seat, but as there is no threshold for participation, the elections will be valid regardless of turnout. FORECAST: LOW TURNOUT AND FIDESZ LANDSLIDE ¶3. (U) All polls predict a landslide victory for opposition party FIDESZ. An early May Gallup poll found that FIDESZ can expect 66 percent of all votes, while the MSzP would receive approximately 22 percent. Two other polling companies, Median and Szonda Ipsos, also forecast a near two-thirds victory for FIDESZ. Think tank Vision Consulting predicts that FIDESZ and its Christian Democratic Party ally will register the largest victory throughout Europe, and note that it could have the effect of weakening support for the current government and possibly even trigger early elections. ¶4. (SBU) Member of the MSzP Executive Committee Gergely Barandy told the Embassy May 22 that while a major defeat could trigger some irrational reactions within the MSzP, he does not believe early elections would be beneficial for the party. He pointed out the austerity measures have a good potential to help Hungary get out of the crisis and "if people see the results - a much stronger forint and higher take-home pay due to tax cuts - then the expected elections in 2010 might hold a better outcome for the socialists." ¶5. (SBU) It remains to be seen whether any of the smaller parties will be able to pass the five percent threshold. According to latest surveys, neither the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) nor the Alliance of Free Democrats (SzDSz) would garner five percent of the votes if Hungary held general elections now. However, because the turnout in EU elections is traditionally lower than in general elections, a low turnout would increase the chances of small parties reaching the five percent threshold. Pollsters seem to agree that the far-right Jobbik party has a chance to obtain one seat on June ¶7. Participation is not expected to exceed that of the 2004 elections, which was 38.5 percent. Median predicts 37 percent turnout, while in April, Sonda Ipsos forecasted a turnout of 35 percent. VIGOROUS FIDESZ CAMPAIGN ¶6. (U) Stimulated by its wide lead in the polls, the opposition FIDESZ party is actively urging Hungarians to vote as a statement of opposition against the policies of the Bajnai government. FIDESZ posters dominate the streets and bridges of Budapest with the slogans "Enough" and "Vote" and FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban himself has been on a nationwide campaign tour since May 4. Domestic political issues rather than European ones are the focus of the FIDESZ campaign that harshly criticizes the austerity measures of the Bajnai cabinet. Orban's main message is that the EU elections will be "a referendum about the performance of the current government." FIDESZ spokesman Peter Szijjarto announced the party will not spend more than HUF 100 million (approximately USD 500,000) for the campaign as "it is distasteful to overspend in an economic crisis." ¶7. (U) The party plans to retain most of its current MEPs (12 now in Brussels),but there are two new names on its election list: Orban's former chief of cabinet Tamas Deutsch and former House Speaker Janos Ader. MEP Pal Schmitt, a former Olympic champion and Orban confidant, leads the FIDESZ list and polls forecast the party will win between 13 and 16 seats. LANGUID SOCIALISTS ¶8. (SBU) The MSzP campaign lacks the energy and intensity of that of FIDESZ, and many believe that the MSzP's anticipated poor showing on election day is causing them to downplay the significance of the elections. Although party president Ildiko Lendvai asserted the party takes the EU elections seriously and will spend HUF 100 million (USD 500,000) for the campaign, it has less visibility than that of FIDESZ. The only tangible event in addition to posters and some resounding phrases ("we want to import good solutions from the EU rather than export domestic conflicts there") was when they kicked off their campaign on May Day attracting a small crowd in Budapest's City Park where the newly inaugurated PM Gordon Bajnai explained the need for the austerity measures. ¶9. (U) Former Foreign Minister Kinga Goncz tops the MSzP list followed by two current MEPs, Zita Gurmai and Edit Herczog. Goncz said recently the party's MEPs in Brussels should do their best during the coming years to maximize EU funds for Hungary. According to surveys, the MSzP can expect to win five to six seats out of the 22 for Hungary. The party currently has nine representatives in the EP. THE REAL QUESTION: WHO COMES IN THIRD? ¶10. (U) Since most expect a strong FIDESZ victory over the MSzP in the June 7 elections, the real question is which party comes in third. The Alliance of Free Democrats (SzDSz),who performed surprisingly well in 2004 - winning over 7 percent and two seats - performs poorly in all surveys. Their departure from the government coalition with the MSzP a year ago did not result in higher support, and it is questionable whether the main election theme on their posters - "who do you want, the radicals or the liberals?" - will mobilize enough voters to pass the threshold. SzDSz MEP Istvan Szent-Ivanyi, who is the chair of the SzDSz National Council, leads the party list. ¶11. (SBU) In a May 22 telephone conversation, SzDSz executive Laszlo Csozik painted a fairly negative picture of the Free Democrats' situation, confirming rumors that internal party fights continue and that a party split is possible should the SzDSz lose its presence in Brussels. He quoted party President Gabor Fodor to have said that, "if we do not reach the five percent, then we won't make it to the Hungarian Parliament in 2010 either." ¶12. (U) The Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF),which recently lost its parliamentary caucus in the Hungarian Parliament due to internal party conflicts (its former members continue to serve as independent MPs),faces problems similar to those of the Free Democrats. Poor showings in public opinion surveys suggest the party may lose its only mandate in the European Parliament. ¶13. (SBU) In a surprising move, former MSzP finance minister Lajos Bokros leads the MDF list - a well-known name in Hungarian politics who may attract as many voters as he may alienate. (Note: a top-notch economist, Bokros' package of austerity measures in 1995 helped stabilize the Hungarian economy. Nevertheless, many people view him as a "ruthless exploiter." End Note). ¶14. (SBU) MDF Presidium member Szabolcs Kerek-Barczy was more optimistic when he told the Embassy May 22 that Bokros and the MDF have 13 percent support among decided voters and predicted the party may win two seats. (Note: Most polls do not show this level of support for MDF. End note.) He believes the turnout will be under 40 percent and emphasized "our campaign focuses on uncertain voters and we try to convince them to choose us rather than the two large parties." FAR-RIGHT SUCCESS POSSIBLE ¶15. (SBU) Just as the case with the SzDSz and the MDF, the non-parliamentary far-right radical Jobbik party also hopes to reach the five percent threshold due to low turnout on June 7. The economic crisis and dissatisfaction with the ruling socialist party is resulting in increased support for the far right (Reftel),and which could result in Jobbik winning a seat in June. Surprisingly, polls reveal that support is increasing for both Jobbik and FIDESZ, suggesting that both parties are attracting disillusioned former socialist supporters. ¶16. (SBU) The Jobbik list is led by Krisztina Morvai, a professor of law who on several occasions has voiced extremist views - including anti-Semitic statements - in public fora. Besides tough criticism of the Bajnai administration, Jobbik also attacks FIDESZ claiming "it is too soft and has been unable to remove the socialists from power." COMMENT: IMPACT ON DOMESTIC POLITICAL LANDSCAPE ¶17. (SBU) As has often been the case, domestic politics, rather than broader European issues, are taking center stage in Hungary's European Parliamentary elections. While the expected FIDESZ victory will likely provide a springboard to the party in its preparations for the 2010 general elections, the EP election results have the potential to considerably shake up the rest of the domestic political landscape. The governing MSzP's popularity has fallen to levels not seen since the early 1990s, and it appears likely they will suffer a major defeat in June. Such a result could create panic within the party, whose MPs are already under pressure for supporting austerity measures that adversely impact their traditional voter base. Socialist MPs may decide that early general elections are no longer the "worst case scenario," as a FIDESZ victory in early elections would force the opposition to bear some of the load in carrying out austerity measures, possibly improving the MSzP's chances in the October 2010 local elections. ¶18. (SBU) If the SzDSz does not pass the five percent threshold, it may exacerbate the leadership conflict between current President Fodor and his predecessor and now caucus leader Janos Koka. A similar failure for the MDF may cost party President Ibolya David her position, as she will attract blame for choosing a former socialist to lead the party's electoral list. This could make it even more difficult for SzDSz and the MDF to meet the five percent threshold in the general elections. Moreover, many see a Jobbik success in the EP elections as an increasing possibility. Because of the traditionally higher turnout in general elections, however, a Jobbik success in winning a seat in the EP elections will not necessarily mean they will receive enough support to meet the five percent threshold to make it into the national Parliament in the general elections. It would, however, help them galvanize support toward that goal. End comment. LEVINE