ROMANIA'S ETHNIC HUNGARIANS: A CRUCIAL SWING VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUCHAREST 000766

SIPDIS

STATE EUR/CE FOR ASCHEIBE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV RO
SUBJECT: ROMANIA'S ETHNIC HUNGARIANS: A CRUCIAL SWING VOTE

Classified By: DCM JERI GUTHRIE-CORN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The opposition Democratic Union of Hungarians
in Romania (UDMR) is positioning itself as kingmaker for the
upcoming Presidential elections. UDMR expects its candidate,
Kelemen Hunor, to win approximately seven percent of the
popular vote in the November 22 first round. The party will
then instruct its constituents how to vote in the December 6
runoff. UDMR,s goals are to position itself to return to
Government and to obtain support for enhanced local autonomy
in exchange for ethnic Hungarian votes. While party leaders
are increasingly frustrated with President Basescu and the
governing Liberal Democrats (PDL),they are likely to support
the candidate who offers the best deal. End Summary.

2. (SBU) "The Hungarian community wants us back in
government, but only under certain conditions," UDMR
President Marko Bela told foreign diplomats at a November 9
meeting. "We need an adequate program for minorities and a
solution to the economic crisis." After twelve years in
government, the party was left out of the ruling coalition
following the November 2008 parliamentary elections. Since
then, economic conditions in the already-poor majority
Hungarian counties of Harghita, Covasna and Mures have
worsened and, as an opposition party, the UDMR has been
unable to garner patronage or government projects for those
areas. Nevertheless, Romania's 600,000 ethnic Hungarians are
expected to unify around the UDMR at election time, as they
have in the past.

3. (SBU) Enhanced local autonomy remains the central tenet of
the UDMR platform, and the party will push the Presidential
finalists to support that goal in exchange for the ethnic
Hungarian vote. UDMR has previously been either unwilling or
unable to define autonomy in concrete terms, but candidate
Kelemen (N.B. his family name - most Hungarians list their
surname first) has identified some benchmarks, such as
devolving more decision-making authority to the local level
and increasing the proportion of income tax receipts
available to local government. Other thorny issues remain:
establishment of a state-supported autonomous
Hungarian-language university in the city of Cluj;
declaration of Hungarian as an official language for the
region; and passage of a law on national minorities.

4. (C) Marko and senior UDMR member Laszlo Borbely told the
assembled diplomats the UDMR would decide whom to support
only after the first round, with no negotiations before that
November 22 vote. In the meantime, Marko will cede the
public spotlight to Kelemen, 42, a colorless intellectual
from Cluj and an MP since 2000. (Note: Marko reportedly
prefers Kelemen as his eventual successor over the more
experienced Borbely. Marko's decision to tap Kelemen was
designed to strengthen the latter's position among party
stalwarts. End Note.)
COMMENT: WHOM WILL UDMR SUPPORT?

5. (C) If President Basescu advances to the second round,
which seems almost certain, UDMR will face a difficult
choice. While party leaders perceive Basescu as not
unfriendly to ethnic Hungarian interests, they are
disappointed with his dictatorial style and with PDL's
failure to deliver on minority issues. Following the
collapse of the Boc government the UDMR criticized Basescu,s
Prime Minister designates, Lucian Croitoru and Liviu Negoita,
for not addressing minority concerns in their proposed
governing programs. UDMR leaders are also disappointed in
Basescu,s push for the non-binding referendum for a
unicameral Parliament, which they fear will reduce the number
of minority Parliamentarians. Kelemen's statement to the
media last week that he would support PNL candidate Crin
Antonescu over Basescu in a runoff reflected this
disappointment, but it may have been premature. If the past
is any guide, the UDMR will go with the candidate who offers
the best deal, and that could still be Basescu.
GITENSTEIN