BELGIAN FM DE GUCHT TO MOVE TO EUROPEAN COMMISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 000945 SIPDIS STATE PASS EUR/WE AND EUR/ERA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL EU EUN BE SUBJECT: BELGIAN FM DE GUCHT TO MOVE TO EUROPEAN COMMISSION REF: A. USEU TODAY JULY 8 ¶B. 2009 Classified By: Acting DCM Richard Eason for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (U) Belgian media reported July 8 that Flemish Liberal (OpenVLD) Vice Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Karel De Gucht would soon resign his posts to accept Belgian's EU commission seat being vacated by EU Commissioner for Development Louis Michel; Commissioner Michel will be sworn in as a member of the European Parliament next week. It is possible Commission President Barroso will rearrange the portfolios in his second term, so it is unclear at this time what portfolio De Gucht would hold under Barroso II. (Note: The term of the Barroso I Commission ends October 31 officially, but could be extended pending ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. End Note.) De Gucht did not speculate on when he would resign or who his likely replacement in the Belgian government would be. His departure creates an opening for a new OpenVLD minister in the 10-member Council of Ministers and in the five-member Core Cabinet of Vice PMs. The media predict Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V) and former PM Yves Leterme would be the most likely candidate to take the FM job, followed by current Vice PM and Finance Minister Didier Reynders of the Francophone Liberals (MR). ¶2. (C) Comment: Embassy contacts confirmed that former PM Leterme is indeed the most likely option. Mark Deweerdt, an Advisor to PM Van Rompuy for Parliamentary Affairs, indicated that when PM Van Rompuy left his position as Speaker of the House of Representatives to assume the Prime Ministership in December 2008, OpenVLD MP Patrick Dewael took his place; the two parties then agreed that Leterme would be the next FM should De Gucht move on. Carl DeVos, a political scientist at the University of Ghent said the Francophone parties have been clambering for one of the two foreign policy positions, FM or DefMin, but probably lacked the wherewithal to obtain either position within the government. Deeweerdt also said Francophone Socialist (PS) Energy Minister Paul Magnette was interested in leaving his position to join the soon-to-be-installed Walloon regional government, creating an opening for the PS to fill. The OpenVLD would also need to choose a new Vice PM from their party. Deeweerdt said PM Van Rompuy would try to complete all reshuffling within his government before Belgian National Day July 21. FM De Gucht remains FM until PM Van Rompuy announces a new Council of Ministers and Core Cabinet. End Comment. BUSH .