EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: GROUPS PREPARE FOR VOTE ON BARROSO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000877


SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: GROUPS PREPARE FOR VOTE ON BARROSO

REF: (A) USEU Brussels 848; (B) USEU Brussels 826

Sensitive but Unclassified - please handle accordingly.


1. (U) SUMMARY: On June 24, Joseph Daul, the chairman of the
European People Party (EPP) group in the newly-elected European
Parliament (EP),confirmed that the EPP would push for a
confirmation vote of Jose Manuel Barroso as Commission President at
the July 15 EP plenary session. The Progressive Alliance of
Socialists and Democrats (PASD - new name of the Socialist group),
the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and the
Greens have called for a postponement of the vote until September.
The EPP intends to offer to either the ALDE or the PASD leader a
"technical agreement" to share the EP Presidency during the second
half of Parliament's five-year term in exchange for their support of
Barroso's confirmation in July. The decision on whether to hold the
vote on July 15 will be taken by the EP Conference of Presidents
(meeting of political group leaders) on July 9. The Swedish
Presidency has invited the chairs of the EP groups to Stockholm
before July 9. Commission President confirmations are by secret
ballot in the EP, making the outcome less certain. END SUMMARY.

BARROSO NOMINATION AT CENTER OF EP TRADE-OFFS
--------------


2. (U) As political group leaders in the European Parliament NOW
bargain over EP top jobs, the nomination of Commission President
Barroso has become a factor in the trade-offs. The Conference of
Presidents (the chairpersons of the EP political groups) will decide
July 9 whether the confirmation vote on Barroso will be on July 15
in Strasbourg, or postponed to (at least) September. The Conference
of Presidents decides by simple majority, with each leader carrying
the proportional weight of his group by MEP seats. (Daul will have
264 votes, Schulz, 183, etc.)


3. (U) The Green co-leader, Daniel Cohn-Bendit, launched an
"anti-Barroso" campaign immediately after the June 4-7 EP elections,
calling for a center-left alliance with the Liberals to oppose
Barroso's nomination. Socialist leader, Martin Schulz, and Liberal
leader, Graham Watson, subsequently confirmed their intentions to
ask for a postponement to (at least) September of the confirmation
vote in the European Parliament, with some hoping that a contender
to Barroso could emerge.


4. (U) EPP chairman Joseph Daul countered on June 24 that the EPP
wanted to maintain a July 15 vote on Barroso's confirmation. Daul
said he would consult next week with both ALDE and PASD (former PES)
to shape a "technical agreement" with one of the two groups for the
sharing of the EP Presidency, in exchange for an agreement to
confirm Barroso at the July Plenary session. The position of EP
President (Speaker) has traditionally been shared between the EPP
and the Socialists; however, current ALDE chairman Graham Watson is
also a candidate for the post for the second half of the EP term.


5. (U) Polish MEP Jerzy Buzek and Italian MEP Mario Mauro are EPP
candidates for the EP Presidency. The EPP will vote on July 7.
Should Buzek win, as expected, Mauro may get the Foreign Affairs
Committee chair as compensation.

EPP-ALDE DEAL: FEASIBLE, BUT POLITICALLY DIFFICULT
-------------- --------------


6. (U) Daul noted that a technical agreement with the ALDE was
mathematically feasible, since the new Conservative group's 55 MEPs
will most likely also vote in favor of Barroso's appointment,
providing, with the ALDE, a comfortable majority of 394 members (out
of 736). Daul acknowledged, however, that breaking the tradition of
the two biggest groups sharing the EP Presidency could lead to a
more polarized parliament in the future.

MEETING WITH PRESIDENCY POSTPONED
--------------


7. (U) The Swedish Presidency invited the chairs of the EP groups to
Stockholm June 25, to launch consultations with the European
Parliament in the "spirit of Lisbon," as the EU leaders had agreed
to do. However, given the current uncertainty in the EP, Daul
reportedly found an "excuse" not to go, Schulz simply refused to go,
and ALDE MEPs have not yet decided on their new leader. Sweden thus
renewed its invitation for consultations on July 7, two days ahead
of the July 9 meeting of the Conference of Presidents.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Whenever the confirmation vote in the Parliament
on Barroso's candidacy for President of the European Commission, it
is important to keep in mind that this vote only requires a simple
majority of MEPs voting, and the vote is by secret ballot. Daul
cannot be certain that the Euro-skeptic Czech ODS (President Klaus's
party) or the Polish Law and Justice party (President Kaczynski's

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party) will vote to help him quickly reappoint Barroso. Moreover,
it remains to be seen whether some EU heads of government belonging
to the center-left (PASD) family who have long stated their
preference for Barroso (Zapatero, Socrates, Brown, Stanishev) will
be willing to put real pressure on their MEPs to secure the
reappointent of the current Commission President. END CMMENT

THE NEXT STEPS
--------------

.(U) Following are the next steps in the process for the
appointment of the Commission President:

--June 30: ALDE group meets to elect its new President (most likely
Guy Verhofstadt); EPP starts political consultations with ALDE and
others.

--July 2: EPP holds internal meeting to work out how to achieve a
'pro-Barroso' majority.

--July 7: EPP holds internal secret vote to decide on Jerzy Buzek
(PL, most likely) or Mario Mauro (IT) as EP President candidate;
Sweden has invited group leaders to Stockholm for consultations to
decide if a vote on Barroso is possible on July 15.

--July 9: EP Conference of Presidents votes whether a vote on
Barroso could take place on July 15.

--July 14: Parliament meets for the first time in Strasbourg and
votes to elect its president.

--July 15: (subject to confirmation) A secret vote on Barroso could
take place at the Parliament's Strasbourg plenary session, if the
Conference of EP Presidents were to agree that it can be held on
this date.

MURRAY