EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: GROUPS PREPARE FOR VOTE ON BARROSO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000877 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/ERA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN SUBJECT: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: GROUPS PREPARE FOR VOTE ON BARROSO REF: (A) USEU Brussels 848; (B) USEU Brussels 826 Sensitive but Unclassified - please handle accordingly. ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: On June 24, Joseph Daul, the chairman of the European People Party (EPP) group in the newly-elected European Parliament (EP),confirmed that the EPP would push for a confirmation vote of Jose Manuel Barroso as Commission President at the July 15 EP plenary session. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (PASD - new name of the Socialist group), the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and the Greens have called for a postponement of the vote until September. The EPP intends to offer to either the ALDE or the PASD leader a "technical agreement" to share the EP Presidency during the second half of Parliament's five-year term in exchange for their support of Barroso's confirmation in July. The decision on whether to hold the vote on July 15 will be taken by the EP Conference of Presidents (meeting of political group leaders) on July 9. The Swedish Presidency has invited the chairs of the EP groups to Stockholm before July 9. Commission President confirmations are by secret ballot in the EP, making the outcome less certain. END SUMMARY. BARROSO NOMINATION AT CENTER OF EP TRADE-OFFS -------------- ¶2. (U) As political group leaders in the European Parliament now bargain over EP top jobs, the nomination of Commission President Barroso has become a factor in the trade-offs. The Conference of Presidents (the chairpersons of the EP political groups) will decide July 9 whether the confirmation vote on Barroso will be on July 15 in Strasbourg, or postponed to (at least) September. The Conference of Presidents decides by simple majority, with each leader carrying the proportional weight of his group by MEP seats. (Daul will have 264 votes, Schulz, 183, etc.) ¶3. (U) The Green co-leader, Daniel Cohn-Bendit, launched an "anti-Barroso" campaign immediately after the June 4-7 EP elections, calling for a center-left alliance with the Liberals to oppose Barroso's nomination. Socialist leader, Martin Schulz, and Liberal leader, Graham Watson, subsequently confirmed their intentions to ask for a postponement to (at least) September of the confirmation vote in the European Parliament, with some hoping that a contender to Barroso could emerge. ¶4. (U) EPP chairman Joseph Daul countered on June 24 that the EPP wanted to maintain a July 15 vote on Barroso's confirmation. Daul said he would consult next week with both ALDE and PASD (former PES) to shape a "technical agreement" with one of the two groups for the sharing of the EP Presidency, in exchange for an agreement to confirm Barroso at the July Plenary session. The position of EP President (Speaker) has traditionally been shared between the EPP and the Socialists; however, current ALDE chairman Graham Watson is also a candidate for the post for the second half of the EP term. ¶5. (U) Polish MEP Jerzy Buzek and Italian MEP Mario Mauro are EPP candidates for the EP Presidency. The EPP will vote on July 7. Should Buzek win, as expected, Mauro may get the Foreign Affairs Committee chair as compensation. EPP-ALDE DEAL: FEASIBLE, BUT POLITICALLY DIFFICULT -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) Daul noted that a technical agreement with the ALDE was mathematically feasible, since the new Conservative group's 55 MEPs will most likely also vote in favor of Barroso's appointment, providing, with the ALDE, a comfortable majority of 394 members (out of 736). Daul acknowledged, however, that breaking the tradition of the two biggest groups sharing the EP Presidency could lead to a more polarized parliament in the future. MEETING WITH PRESIDENCY POSTPONED -------------- ¶7. (U) The Swedish Presidency invited the chairs of the EP groups to Stockholm June 25, to launch consultations with the European Parliament in the "spirit of Lisbon," as the EU leaders had agreed to do. However, given the current uncertainty in the EP, Daul reportedly found an "excuse" not to go, Schulz simply refused to go, and ALDE MEPs have not yet decided on their new leader. Sweden thus renewed its invitation for consultations on July 7, two days ahead of the July 9 meeting of the Conference of Presidents. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Whenever the confirmation vote in the Parliament on Barroso's candidacy for President of the European Commission, it is important to keep in mind that this vote only requires a simple majority of MEPs voting, and the vote is by secret ballot. Daul cannot be certain that the Euro-skeptic Czech ODS (President Klaus's party) or the Polish Law and Justice party (President Kaczynski's BRUSSELS 00000877 002 OF 002 party) will vote to help him quickly reappoint Barroso. Moreover, it remains to be seen whether some EU heads of government belonging to the center-left (PASD) family who have long stated their preference for Barroso (Zapatero, Socrates, Brown, Stanishev) will be willing to put real pressure on their MEPs to secure the reappointent of the current Commission President. END CMMENT THE NEXT STEPS -------------- .(U) Following are the next steps in the process for the appointment of the Commission President: --June 30: ALDE group meets to elect its new President (most likely Guy Verhofstadt); EPP starts political consultations with ALDE and others. --July 2: EPP holds internal meeting to work out how to achieve a 'pro-Barroso' majority. --July 7: EPP holds internal secret vote to decide on Jerzy Buzek (PL, most likely) or Mario Mauro (IT) as EP President candidate; Sweden has invited group leaders to Stockholm for consultations to decide if a vote on Barroso is possible on July 15. --July 9: EP Conference of Presidents votes whether a vote on Barroso could take place on July 15. --July 14: Parliament meets for the first time in Strasbourg and votes to elect its president. --July 15: (subject to confirmation) A secret vote on Barroso could take place at the Parliament's Strasbourg plenary session, if the Conference of EP Presidents were to agree that it can be held on this date. MURRAY