REGIONAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS STRENGTHEN GREENS AND FLEMISH

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000816

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: REGIONAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS STRENGTHEN GREENS AND FLEMISH
NATIONALISTS, ADD TO FEDERAL GOVERNMENT COMPLEXITY

INTRODUCTION
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1. The results of the June 7 regional and European elections of
June 7 will allow the Belgian federal government of Prime Minister
Herman Van Rompuy (CD&V) to carry on, but the formation of regional
government coalitions in Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels could cause
a reconsideration of the existing federal government coalition. As
expected, the three regions of Belgium, Flanders, Brussels and
Wallonia, voted differently. The Christian Democratic CD&V remains
the leading political force of Flanders, the Liberal MR leads in
Brussels, and the Socialist PS stays on top in Wallonia. The most
spectacular gains were made by the nationalist N-VA in Flanders and
the green Ecolo party in Wallonia and Brussels. The far right in
Belgium suffered severe losses. In Flanders, the anti-immigration
Vlaams Belang was resoundingly defeated and in Wallonia, the Front
National has all but disappeared from the political map.

KRIS PEETERS IN COMMAND IN FLANDERS
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2. The CD&V won 22.9 percent of the popular vote in Flanders and
its former ally, the democratic nationalist N-VA, won 13.1 percent.
Added up, the result is even better than in 2004 when the two
parties formed an alliance at the federal level, which later in 2008
cracked under the stresses of governing. CD&V leader and Flanders
Minister-President Kris Peeters is credited with having run a
flawless campaign. The greatest setbacks were suffered by the
far-right Vlaams Belang (-8.8 percentage points),and the liberal
Open VLD, which is led by Foreign Minister Karel De Gucht, down 4.8
percentage points. The Socialist SP.A failed to recoup ground lost
in the 2007 general election. The populist Lijst Dedecker (LDD)
made its election debut, winning 7.6 percent of the popular vote, a
score entirely due to the popularity of party founder Representative
Jean-Marie Dedecker.

SOCIALISTS KEEP THE EDGE IN WALLONIA
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3. After a fiercely competitive campaign, the Parti Socialiste (PS)
managed to hold on to its leading position in Wallonia. The party
managed to garner 32.8 percent, remaining well ahead of the liberal
Mouvement Reformateur (MR) of Vice Premier and Minister of Finance
Didier Reynders. Polls had predicted a much lower score, reflecting
scandals involving PS national and local party officials. The MR
had hoped to dethrone the PS but won a rather disappointing 23.4
percent. The Christian Democratic CDH failed to gain ground in
Wallonia, but did not lose any either. The acknowledged "winner" in
Wallonia, despite its third-place showing, was the green Ecolo
party, which garnered a spectacular 18.6 percent, a 10 percentage
point increase compared to the regional election of 2004.

LIBERALS KEEP BRUSSELS
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4. In Brussels, the MR managed to keep its leading position winning
29.8 percent of the Francophone vote. The PS managed to hold on to
second position, but Ecolo caused a sensatQn by winning 20.2
percent of the Francophone vote. In stark contrast with their
respective performances in Flanders, both Open VLD and SP.A did
rather well among the Flemish voters of the capital region.
Although immigration is a sensitive issue in the capital, the
far-right, both Flemish and Francophone, failed to capitalize on the
issue and sustained important losses as in Wallonia and Flanders.

VERHOFSTADT WINS BEAUTY CONTEST
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5. In the European Parliament election, Belgium followed the
general trend in Europe with a swing to the center-right. Former
Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD) garnered an impressive
number of personal preference votes, outdistancing his predecessor
Jean-Luc Dehaene (CD&V). With Belgium down from 24 to 22 seats, the
aim for most parties was to hold on to what they had. Only Ecolo
and LDD managed to win an additional seat. The losses were incurred
by CD&V, PS, MR, and Vlaams Belang, the four parties losing one
European seat each in the process.

SOMERS FORCED TO RESIGN
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6. Open VLD party president Bart Somers became the first casualty
of election day - the very next day. Because of the disappointing
performance of his party he faced no other choice than to announce
his resignation. With Somers' resignation Verhofstadt, in his
capacity of vice-chair, finds himself back at the helm of his party.
Verhofstadt is expected to use the summer months to select a new
party leader. Representative Mathias De Clercq would be the most

likely choice, but many in the party believe that this talented
young man lacks the necessary experience to deal with the feuding
factions inside the party.

FORMING COALITIONS
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7. During the coming days the leading party of each region will try
to form a coalition government. In Flanders, CD&V and its former
ally N-VA could be the backbone of the new government, even though
the parties have no intention of resuscitating their NOW defunct
alliance. CD&V and N-VA together would be in a position to choose
from the SP.A or Open VLD for third coalition partner. However,
both Open VLD and SP.A fear the nationalist rhetoric of N-VA, which
was a major source of rancor in the Leterme government. If the N-VA
opts for playing institutional hardball, the result could be
continuation of the outgoing CD&V-Open VLD-SP.A coalition. Because
of the many denigrating remarks made by MR leader Didier Reynders
about the Socialist leadership during the campaign, the PS leaders,
including party president Elio Di Rupo, are on record saying that
they will not form a coalition with the MR.


8. At this very moment, a PS-CDH-Ecolo Walloon regional coalition
(whimsically known as the "Olivier" or olive-tree) seems like the
most probable outcome of the ongoing negotiations. In Brussels
Senate President Armand De Decker, the local MR leader, has started
preliminary talks with the other Brussels party leaders. But the
Brussels PS leaders have already made it understood that they favor
the "Olivier", same as in Wallonia. As the Brussels regional
government is composed of Francophone and Flemish ministers, an
MR-led coalition might need support from the Open VLD to command a
majority.

THE OUTLOOK
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9. Knowing that a landslide defeat by a majority party would have
wrecked his government, Prime Minister Van Rompuy was a rather happy
man when election day was over. He immediately reiterated his
promise to tackle pending socio-economic problems without further
delay. Karel De Gucht had to acknowledge the setback suffered by
his Open VLD party. He sounded defiant, but by Monday June 8 it was
clear that the new Open VLD leadership, i.e. Verhofstadt himself,
had determined that quitting the federal government was not a viable
option. The real danger for PM Van Rompuy could come from the MR.
After having failed to dethrone the PS in Wallonia, a failure to
secure ministerial portfolios in the Walloon, Brussels and
francophone community governments would certainly undermine Didier
Reynders' position, forcing him to resign as party leader.
Ultimately, this could conceivably result in the MR quitting the
federal government.


10. Overall, the regional election results highlight a continued
strengthening of center-right parties in Flanders and of the
center-left (plus Green) in Wallonia. This political divergence
makes governing the whole of Belgium somewhat more difficult. The
rise in popularity of the N-VA, which insistently pushes Flemish
independence, and its possible participation in government in
Flanders may push other Flemish parties to stiffen their backs on
Flemish regional issues. Little noticed as well is the importance
of the FDF - a francophone chauvinist group within the MR - to the
success that MR had in Wallonia and Brussels. Despite the
above-mentioned concerns, PM Van Rompuy remains composed and
confident his government can survive until 2011. At least, the
federal government can turn its attention to the business of
governing, NOW that the regional elections are behind it.

BUSH