REGIONAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS STRENGTHEN GREENS AND FLEMISH

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000816 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV BE SUBJECT: REGIONAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS STRENGTHEN GREENS AND FLEMISH NATIONALISTS, ADD TO FEDERAL GOVERNMENT COMPLEXITY INTRODUCTION -------------- ¶1. The results of the June 7 regional and European elections of June 7 will allow the Belgian federal government of Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy (CD&V) to carry on, but the formation of regional government coalitions in Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels could cause a reconsideration of the existing federal government coalition. As expected, the three regions of Belgium, Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia, voted differently. The Christian Democratic CD&V remains the leading political force of Flanders, the Liberal MR leads in Brussels, and the Socialist PS stays on top in Wallonia. The most spectacular gains were made by the nationalist N-VA in Flanders and the green Ecolo party in Wallonia and Brussels. The far right in Belgium suffered severe losses. In Flanders, the anti-immigration Vlaams Belang was resoundingly defeated and in Wallonia, the Front National has all but disappeared from the political map. KRIS PEETERS IN COMMAND IN FLANDERS -------------- ¶2. The CD&V won 22.9 percent of the popular vote in Flanders and its former ally, the democratic nationalist N-VA, won 13.1 percent. Added up, the result is even better than in 2004 when the two parties formed an alliance at the federal level, which later in 2008 cracked under the stresses of governing. CD&V leader and Flanders Minister-President Kris Peeters is credited with having run a flawless campaign. The greatest setbacks were suffered by the far-right Vlaams Belang (-8.8 percentage points),and the liberal Open VLD, which is led by Foreign Minister Karel De Gucht, down 4.8 percentage points. The Socialist SP.A failed to recoup ground lost in the 2007 general election. The populist Lijst Dedecker (LDD) made its election debut, winning 7.6 percent of the popular vote, a score entirely due to the popularity of party founder Representative Jean-Marie Dedecker. SOCIALISTS KEEP THE EDGE IN WALLONIA -------------- ¶3. After a fiercely competitive campaign, the Parti Socialiste (PS) managed to hold on to its leading position in Wallonia. The party managed to garner 32.8 percent, remaining well ahead of the liberal Mouvement Reformateur (MR) of Vice Premier and Minister of Finance Didier Reynders. Polls had predicted a much lower score, reflecting scandals involving PS national and local party officials. The MR had hoped to dethrone the PS but won a rather disappointing 23.4 percent. The Christian Democratic CDH failed to gain ground in Wallonia, but did not lose any either. The acknowledged "winner" in Wallonia, despite its third-place showing, was the green Ecolo party, which garnered a spectacular 18.6 percent, a 10 percentage point increase compared to the regional election of 2004. LIBERALS KEEP BRUSSELS -------------- ¶4. In Brussels, the MR managed to keep its leading position winning 29.8 percent of the Francophone vote. The PS managed to hold on to second position, but Ecolo caused a sensatQn by winning 20.2 percent of the Francophone vote. In stark contrast with their respective performances in Flanders, both Open VLD and SP.A did rather well among the Flemish voters of the capital region. Although immigration is a sensitive issue in the capital, the far-right, both Flemish and Francophone, failed to capitalize on the issue and sustained important losses as in Wallonia and Flanders. VERHOFSTADT WINS BEAUTY CONTEST -------------- ¶5. In the European Parliament election, Belgium followed the general trend in Europe with a swing to the center-right. Former Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD) garnered an impressive number of personal preference votes, outdistancing his predecessor Jean-Luc Dehaene (CD&V). With Belgium down from 24 to 22 seats, the aim for most parties was to hold on to what they had. Only Ecolo and LDD managed to win an additional seat. The losses were incurred by CD&V, PS, MR, and Vlaams Belang, the four parties losing one European seat each in the process. SOMERS FORCED TO RESIGN -------------- ¶6. Open VLD party president Bart Somers became the first casualty of election day - the very next day. Because of the disappointing performance of his party he faced no other choice than to announce his resignation. With Somers' resignation Verhofstadt, in his capacity of vice-chair, finds himself back at the helm of his party. Verhofstadt is expected to use the summer months to select a new party leader. Representative Mathias De Clercq would be the most likely choice, but many in the party believe that this talented young man lacks the necessary experience to deal with the feuding factions inside the party. FORMING COALITIONS -------------- ¶7. During the coming days the leading party of each region will try to form a coalition government. In Flanders, CD&V and its former ally N-VA could be the backbone of the new government, even though the parties have no intention of resuscitating their now defunct alliance. CD&V and N-VA together would be in a position to choose from the SP.A or Open VLD for third coalition partner. However, both Open VLD and SP.A fear the nationalist rhetoric of N-VA, which was a major source of rancor in the Leterme government. If the N-VA opts for playing institutional hardball, the result could be continuation of the outgoing CD&V-Open VLD-SP.A coalition. Because of the many denigrating remarks made by MR leader Didier Reynders about the Socialist leadership during the campaign, the PS leaders, including party president Elio Di Rupo, are on record saying that they will not form a coalition with the MR. ¶8. At this very moment, a PS-CDH-Ecolo Walloon regional coalition (whimsically known as the "Olivier" or olive-tree) seems like the most probable outcome of the ongoing negotiations. In Brussels Senate President Armand De Decker, the local MR leader, has started preliminary talks with the other Brussels party leaders. But the Brussels PS leaders have already made it understood that they favor the "Olivier", same as in Wallonia. As the Brussels regional government is composed of Francophone and Flemish ministers, an MR-led coalition might need support from the Open VLD to command a majority. THE OUTLOOK -------------- ¶9. Knowing that a landslide defeat by a majority party would have wrecked his government, Prime Minister Van Rompuy was a rather happy man when election day was over. He immediately reiterated his promise to tackle pending socio-economic problems without further delay. Karel De Gucht had to acknowledge the setback suffered by his Open VLD party. He sounded defiant, but by Monday June 8 it was clear that the new Open VLD leadership, i.e. Verhofstadt himself, had determined that quitting the federal government was not a viable option. The real danger for PM Van Rompuy could come from the MR. After having failed to dethrone the PS in Wallonia, a failure to secure ministerial portfolios in the Walloon, Brussels and francophone community governments would certainly undermine Didier Reynders' position, forcing him to resign as party leader. Ultimately, this could conceivably result in the MR quitting the federal government. ¶10. Overall, the regional election results highlight a continued strengthening of center-right parties in Flanders and of the center-left (plus Green) in Wallonia. This political divergence makes governing the whole of Belgium somewhat more difficult. The rise in popularity of the N-VA, which insistently pushes Flemish independence, and its possible participation in government in Flanders may push other Flemish parties to stiffen their backs on Flemish regional issues. Little noticed as well is the importance of the FDF - a francophone chauvinist group within the MR - to the success that MR had in Wallonia and Brussels. Despite the above-mentioned concerns, PM Van Rompuy remains composed and confident his government can survive until 2011. At least, the federal government can turn its attention to the business of governing, now that the regional elections are behind it. BUSH