EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS I: THE SETTING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000755

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/ERA

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TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN ECON

SUBJECT: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS I: THE SETTING

REF: 08 BRUSSELS 1825


1. SUMMARY: The European Parliament (EP),the only multinational
parliamentary assembly in the world elected by universal suffrage,
will be re-elected 4-7 June across the 27 member states of the
European Union for another five-year term. The EP's 754 members
will represent 500 million citizens. The elections will be held
under the provisions of the Nice Treaty, absent ratification of the
Lisbon Treaty. The EP shares with the European Council European
Union budget authority, and decision-making powers on such issues as
financial services, environment, transportation, data privacy,
development aid, asylum and immigration -- all significant issues in
U.S.-EU relations. (Additional powers would be granted to the EP
under the Lisbon Treaty.) Candidates run as national party members
but function in the EP as part of European party groups. Low voter
turnout is expected, and member-state domestic issues will likely
prevail. Although the EP called for election results to be taken
into account for the designations of Commission and EP presidents,
those appointments appear, once again, to have been decided in
advance. END SUMMARY

THE EP ROLE IN THE EU: BACKGROUND
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2. The European Parliament (EP) was created in 1962 when the
European Coal and Steel Community Assembly decided to describe
itself as the "European Parliament." It became one of the three
primary EU institutions, joining the appointed European Commission
representing "community interests," and the Council of Ministers
representing member-state governments. In 1976, the member states
adopted an act providing for direct elections of MEPs to five-year
terms, making the EP the only EU institution directly elected. The
first elections were held 30 years ago, in 1979. For much of its
life, the European Parliament could well have been labeled a
"multi-lingual talk shop"; however, its power has grown rapidly over
the last few years, and the EP is NOW one of the most powerful
legislatures in the world both in terms of its legislative and
executive oversight powers and the import of its agenda.

EP: WHAT IT CAN DO
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3. The EP does not fulfill all of the functions of traditional
national parliaments. It cannot raise revenues for the EU
(member-state governments do) or initiate legislation (only the
European Commission does). Nonetheless, the EP has steadily gained
powers under the successive European treaties (Reftel),and this
trend will continue if the Lisbon Treaty is adopted. The EP's
powers consist principally of: (1) budgetary powers, whereby the EP
can amend and must give final approval to the EU budget (except for
agricultural expenditures) and must also approve transfers between
key budget lines (for instance, to supplement foreign affairs
spending); (2) "co-decision" power, shared equally between the EP
and the member states (through the Council),to amend or reject
Commission-initiated legislation in internal markets -- including
areas that can affect U.S. interests such as transportation, data
protection, environment and development aid; and (3) oversight and
monitoring of the other EU institutions. The European Parliament
also has the final say on the accession of new member states, and
can vote to approve or reject, as a slate, the European
Commissioners appointed by the member states. The EP is consulted
on certain types of treaties concluded by the EU with other
governments.

SEAT ALLOCATION FOR THE 2009 ELECTION
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4. The number of MEPs has risen with each enlargement. Seat
allocation is determined generally according to population, but with
a minimal threshold for smaller countries and considerably more
voters per MEP in the larger countries.


5. Because the Lisbon Treaty has not yet been ratified, this year's
European elections will be arranged under the modified Treaty of
Nice. Lisbon and Nice differ on both the total numbers and the
allocation of seats between member states. Nice provides for 736
seats and the Lisbon Treaty for 751 seats. There were two
complications: The number of German MEPs should have decreased from
99 to 96 after the elections, and twelve member states should have
gained a seat or two each. As it was difficult to expel three MEPs
during a parliamentary term, heads of state decided in December 2008
to allow 754 MEPs until the end of the five year parliamentary term
in 2014 (thus the term "modified Treaty of Nice").

The number of MEPs per country is as follows, in descending order:

-- Country - 2004-2009/Nice/Lisbon/2009 election

-- Germany - 99/99/96/99
-- France - 78/72/74/74

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-- Italy - 78/72/73/73
-- UK - 78/72/73/73
-- Spain - 54/50/54/54
-- Poland - 54/50/51/51
-- Romania - 35/33/33/33
-- Netherlands - 27/25/26/26
-- Belgium, Czech Rep., Greece, Hungary, Portugal - 24/22/22/22
-- Sweden - 19/18/20/20
-- Austria - 18/17/19/19
-- Bulgaria - 18/17/18/18
-- Denmark, Finland, Slovakia - 14/13/13/13
-- Ireland, Lithuania - 13/12/12/12
-- Latvia - 9/8/9/9
-- Slovenia - 7/7/8/8
-- Luxembourg, Estonia, Cyprus - 6/6/6/6
-- Malta - 5/5/6/6

POLITICAL GROUPS IN THE EP
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6. MEPs are generally elected in their countries on national party
lists, with each country's seats allocated among political parties
on a proportional basis. MEPs then unite in transnational political
party groupings in the EP. The Socialists/Social Democrats (PES)
and the Christian Democrats/Conservatives (EPP-ED) have always been
the two largest groups, with a changing pattern of smaller groups.
The EPP-ED was the largest group in 2004-2009, with 288 seats to 217
for the PES. The Liberal group grew to become the third group with
100 members, the right UEN grew with the Polish Law and Justice
Party to become the fourth group with 44 seats, the Greens followed
(now 43 seats),and then the far-Left (GUE-NGL NOW 41 seats.)
Political groups will be re-forming after the 2009 elections.
Notably, the UK conservatives have announced they will leave the
EPP-ED group to create a new Euro-skeptic group, which may cause the
EPP-ED to lose its first position to the Socialists.

LOW INTEREST IN EP ELECTIONS
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7. Preliminary indications are that voters' lack of understanding
of the EP will continue a decline in voter participation. Despite
the direct vote and the Parliament's increasing influence, voter
turnout has fallen consistently. While turnout reached 63% in 1979,
it was 45.6% in 2004. Although EU-wide issues such as the economic
crisis, future EU enlargement, and EU relations with third
countries, such as the U.S., should ordinarily play a role in the
campaign, polls indicate the EP elections will focus, once again,
mainly on issues voters associate not with the EU, but with the
performance of their national governments, such as unemployment,
crime, and immigration.


8. The campaign issues will be the subject of our following cable
on the EP elections.

MURRAY