DONNYBROOKS AND DEBACLES: BELGIUM'S REGIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000715

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: DONNYBROOKS AND DEBACLES: BELGIUM'S REGIONAL
ELECTION CAMPAIGNS HEAT UP


1. Summary: The Belgian regional and European elections will
be held on June 7, and both Flemish and Francophone parties
have used mudslinging tactics to get ahead in the polls. For
the Flemish elections, the media fight between the Liberals
and the populist Lijst Dedecker have hurt both parties, and
allowed the Christian Democrats to maintain a lead. It is
unclear whether these three parties could form a center-right
coalition with a fourth party or whether a center left
coalition might be formed that includes the Liberals and the
weaker Socialists or even the Greens. On the Francophone
side, the Liberals and Socialists are fighting hard for first
place; the Liberals would like to exclude the Socialists from
the new regional government, but it is unclear if the Greens
or the Center Humanist party would join them in a coalition.
The parties forming the post-June 7 regional governments
might make strong arguments that the national government
should be reshuffled to match the regional mix. The European
election campaigns between former Liberal PM Guy Verhofstadt
and former Christian Democrat PM Jean-Luc Dehaene have not
resulted in the same level of vitriol or picked up as much
press. End Summary.

INTRODUCTION


2. Mudslinging, scandals and defections have so far
dominated the Belgian campaign for the June 7 regional and
European elections. On the weighty issues, like the soaring
budget deficit, political leaders are treading with caution.
They know that after June 7 the federal government will have
to tackle the soaring budget deficit, and that regional
governments will have no choice but to cut their expenditures.

FLUCTUATIONS AND FIGHTING IN FLANDERS


3. The Flemish regional campaign centers on the contest
between Christian Democrats (CD&V) and liberals (Open VLD)
for leadership of the region. Five years ago, the CD&V had
coaxed the nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) into an
alliance. This combination (CD&V-N-VA) was successful, not
only in the 2004 elections but also in the general elections
of 2007 and was easily the largest party grouping. The
alliance ended in late 2008, and the CD&V is now running
alone. At the outset of the campaign the Open VLD sensed
that it had a real chance at beating the CD&V. By becoming
the largest party of the region, it would be in a position to
claim the Minister-President portfolio for Open VLD party
president Bart Somers. However, Somers made a serious
blunder by offering in writing a parliamentary seat or
matching pay to a potential defector from another rival
party, Lijst Dedecker (LDD). Somers' blunder forced the
party to drop him from the top of the list and substitute
regional minister Dirk Van Mechelen at the head of the list
in the last two weeks before the election. The ensuing media
vitriol between Open VLD and the populist LDD has lowered the
standing of both parties, and allowed the CD&V to rise into
the front runner's position. At this stage of the campaign,
a continuation of the current three-party coalition of CD&V,
Open VLD, and Socialist (sp.a) appears to be the most likely
outcome of the election. However, the current weakness of
the sp.a could pave the way for smaller parties to join a
coalition. The most recent poll had the sp.a at 14.2 percent
of the popular vote, a historic low for the party. Until
recently, the Greens (Groen!) seemed unlikely to perform
well, but the most recent poll showed their support rising to
almost nine percent.


4. Disseminating a new brand of populism, the LDD list of
Representative Jean-Marie Dedecker is an unknown quantity for
political pundits. A strong LDD showing t on June 7 would
likely come at the expense of Open VLD, Dedecker's former
party, and the extreme-right Vlaams Belang (VB). With the
new LDD option for right wing voters, the VB will not be able
to repeat its previous 24 percent showing in the 2004
regional elections. Dedecker dreams of forming a
center-right coalition composed of CD&V, Open VLD and his own
party. The most recent polls show that these three parties
might need the support of N-VA to command a majority in the
Flemish regional parliament. The majority of the Flemish
vote will be center-right and right wing, but will not
necessarily lead to a center-right Flemish regional
government.

HOW GREEN WAS MY PARTY: MR COURTS THE FRANCOPHONE GREENS


5. It has been the life-long ambition of Francophone Liberal
(MR) leader Didier Reynders to break the Socialist hegemony
in Francophone Belgium. He failed in the regional elections
of 2004, and his party was kicked out of the regional

BRUSSELS 00000715 002 OF 002


coalitions in Wallonia and Brussels. His stated goal of
removing the Socialists from office has resulted in open and
unending feuding between the Socialist PS and Liberal MR,
impacting negatively on the performance of the current
federal government, of which they both are part of. The
mudslinging between the two has led to the current insult
hurling between the PS and MR leaders. The most recent polls
indicate that the Socialists have the upper hand in Wallonia,
and that Reynders will have to seek the support from third
parties to overcome the Socialists. In Wallonia the
Christian Democratic CDH is locked in a contest with the
Greens (Ecolo) for third position. Ecolo long ago shed its
traditional green trappings. Contrary to its Flemish
counterpart, Ecolo has learned that a leftist view of world
affairs does not win votes. Ecolo is currently experiencing
a spectacular climb in the polls, and could become the second
largest party of Brussels and third largest of Wallonia.
Reynders is actively courting Ecolo, hoping to form a
coalition of Liberals, Christian Democrats and Greens.

THE CAPITAL OF BELGIUM AND OF EUROPE


6. In the predominantly Francophone Brussels capital region,
the Flemish parties have a guaranteed number of seats in the
regional parliament and ministries in the government. This
legal requirement results in large coalitions. The MR is the
largest party of the region, but in 2004 it was excluded from
the majority coalition by a Socialist-led coalition of
Christian Democrats, the Francophone Greens and Open VLD, six
parties in total.


7. So far, the European parliament campaign has failed to
appear on the radar screen. Two former prime ministers, Guy
Verhofstadt of Open VLD and Jean-Luc Dehaene from CD&V, are
running for office, but they have decided to avoid personal
attacks, opting for academic discussions on the future of the
Union. There are slight differences of opinion between the
two. Verhofstadt is positioning himself as the champion of a
federal Europe, while his older colleague is focusing on
steps to achieve more cohesion among the 27 member states.
Verhofstadt has let it be known that he would not serve as
Belgium's EU commissioner under outgoing EU Commission
President Jose Manuel Barroso.

COMMENT


8. Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, one of the country's
most seasoned politicians, has avoided involvement in the
regional and European campaigns from the outset. He knows
that joining the fray would undermine the federal
government's stability. The latest verbal confrontation
between his Vice Premiers Reynders and Laurette Onkelinx
(PS),and her veiled threat to leave the national government,
has demonstrated just how real that danger is. The outcome
of June 7 will impact the federal government. It will most
likely cause a federal government reshuffle, and in a worst
case scenario result in a protracted crisis. Van Rompuy has
repeatedly stated that after the election, the federal
government will have to tackle the rapidly deteriorating
budget situation. To achieve his goal he will need the full
cooperation from the new regional governments. Consequently,
a federal government wth the same parties that run the new
regional governments would be his best outcome.

BUSH
.