WALLONIA AND BRUSSELS REGIONAL ELECTIONS OVERVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BRUSSELS 000659 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV ECON BE SUBJECT: WALLONIA AND BRUSSELS REGIONAL ELECTIONS OVERVIEW REF: BRUSSELS 648 Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Richard Eason, reason 1.4(d ). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Belgian voters will go to the polls in regional elections on June 7. The outcome of the election is not likely to shake the foundations of the federal government coalition unless a major upset of one of the federal coalition parties occurs, which would discredit some of the traditional party leaders. The Parti Socialiste (PS) is running neck and neck with the Mouvement Reformateur (MR) in Wallonia, with the MR just a bit ahead in the Brussels region. The Socialists are trying to overcome public distaste for a series of scandals they have been involved in, while hoping to make hay from what they perceive as the global failure of the liberal economics espoused by the MR. The Centre Democratique Humaniste (CDH) is holding its own in terms of the vote it can pull, but it is the green party Ecolo that is gaining the most votes from the limping PS, benefiting from both its "clean" image and growing concern about industrial and environmental problems. The exact composition of the coalitions to come from the elections depends on the vote totals, in particular whether the MR can surpass the Socialists and have the first chance at forming a government. In Wallonia, a PS-CDH-Ecolo grouping is given the best chance. In Brussels the same result, or an MR-CDH-Ecolo combination, is generally expected. End Summary. ON THE LEFT, THE SOCIALIST PARTY -------------- ¶2. (U) The election of 2009 is an important one for both the Socialist Party (PS) and the center-right, European liberal Mouvement Reformateur (MR) in Wallonia and Brussels. The PS holds 34 seats in the 75-seat regional parliament in Namur, the largest bloc. But the party suffered from a series of corruption scandals in local government, notably in Charleroi. As a result, it fell behind the MR in the 2007 federal elections. The PS is hoping to ride dissatisfaction with what its leader, Elio Di Rupo, likes to call the "liberal crisis", to regain the predominant place in Wallonia. "Our values aren't traded on any exchange, our actions profit everyone," is the slogan. The Socialists promote the value of the state, the importance of regulation and of the social security system, and point to gains made under its "Marshall plan" for Wallonia, that seeks to make the region more welcoming for both domestic and foreign investment. The plan has had some success, as regional leaders like to point out, with the arrival of a Microsoft research center and a major Google data center. ¶3. (U) But the party was seen to stumble at the outset of the campaign, uncomfortably reminding voters of past ethical difficulties among long-entrenched PS officials. A recent junket to the U.S. west coast by senior Walloon politicians, enough of them Socialists to draw fire in their direction, has been roundly condemned as a wasteful pleasure trip at public expense. The junketeers, most of whom are closing out their political careers, clumsily defended the trip. They left it to their junior colleagues to deal with the negative fallout, which has mostly hurt the Socialists. Suspicions of a sweetheart deal in the reconstruction of the house of one Socialist leader, Philippe Van Cau, have not helped either. An intra-party auditing board is looking into the matter, but won't have much time before the elections to repair the damage. Nor will the rumored opening in late May of the trial of one of the corrupt mayors help. Therefore it is not surprising that Di Rupo's May 1 speech emphasized the "big time defrauders" whose worldwide machinations led to the "liberal crisis" hitting Belgium. ¶4. (U) The party is using some innovative means, for Belgium, to campaign. Campaign literature is being distributed house to house by supporters, rather than simply mailed out, in order to make personal contact with voters. "D-stress" evenings, where curious voters can share a glass of wine with ministers and candidates, add a personal touch to campaigning. Internet junkies can watch a "You-tube"-like PS-TV that, inter alia, has coverage of the March 29 party congress with a reggae beat and introduces the party's youngest candidate, 18 year old Julien Uyttendaele, who is 68th on the party's Brussels election list, which is topped by popular incumbent Minister-President Charles Picque. It has put the most recognizable names in Belgian Socialism on the Wallonia party list to attract votes, including Di Rupo, Minister-President Rudy Demotte, federal Minister of Climate and Energy Paul Magnette and former Defense Minister Andre BRUSSELS 00000659 002 OF 004 Flahaut. A LITTLE BIT RIGHT, THE MOUVEMENT REFORMATEUR -------------- ¶5. (U) The MR is the PS's closest competitor and has its heart set on surpassing the Socialists' regional vote total in 2009, as it did in for the first time in 2007 at the federal level, becoming both a governing party and having the first crack at creating a government. The 2007 result was a great improvement over the 2004 regional elections, when the MR lagged far behind the Socialists. However, the 2007 performance was obtained in large part on the back of strong negative campaigning by the MR president, Didier Reynders. Reynders, who is vice-premier and Minister of Finance in the federal government, went hard at the personalities in the PS and the Centre Democratique Humaniste (CDH) in 2007. As a result, he burned a lot of bridges that might help his party into a coalition that would put the PS into opposition. After the Fortis debacle and the economic crisis (or liberal crisis, as Di Rupo styles it),long-time Finance Minister Reynders has his own vulnerabilities. This time around, the MR is trying to keep the focus on domestic issues and on Wallonia and Brussels, not on Belgium or the world. These include education, governance, employment and training, and economic development; all under the slogan "We are re-inventing the future." Prominent MR politicians, who are on the regional party list and may figure in a government, are former regional minister Serge Kubla and former federal state secretary Herve Jamar. SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, THE CDH -------------- ¶6. (U) The Centre Democratique Humaniste (CDH),formerly known as the Christian Democrats, is facing relegation to fourth-place status in Wallonia and Brussels, losing ground to the Ecolo party. The CDH, coalition partner with the PS in the current Wallonia government, has always had a problem distinguishing itself from the Socialists. Didier Reynders of the MR likes to refer to the two parties as "Scotch-taped" together. CDH insiders say the party has had its disagreements with the PS, but has tended to "wash its dirty laundry within the family," something that doesn't necessarily pay off at election time. ¶7. (U) The party holds to the concept of "humanism" as a crosscutting philosophy that exceeds socialism, liberalism and ecology. But it has a hard time explaining that in convenient sound bites, and its long-winded prescriptions for improving education and other services are hard going for the average voter. The party's program for Wallonia runs to 340 pages in total. Its public face, Joelle Milquet, is federal minister of employment. Somewhat austere, she has the ability to rally the party faithful and a number of Socialists as well, though she herself would not appear in an eventual regional government in Brussels or Namur. However, during the long-running crisis to form a government in 2007, she gained the moniker "Madame Non" for her opposition to any compromise. Some francophone voters may want to thank her for her strong position. Others may punish her for her role in extending the nine-month long crisis. COMING UP FROM BEHIND, ECOLO -------------- ¶8. (U) Opinion polls show a significant resurgence in popularity of the Ecolo party in both Wallonia and Brussels. Ecolo won about 20 percent of the vote ten years ago in the 1999 federal elections, but crashed to 7-8 percent in later elections. According to a party spokesman, a vote for Ecolo in 1999 was still an irrational, emotional protest. Today, he says, the choice for Ecolo has become rational. The energy and climatic crises have led industry and mainstream politicians to "green up" their policies and thus to validate the ecologists' argument. While earlier the Ecolo program may have seemed anti-progress and destructive of employment, now it can be seen as a way forward, with jobs flowing from investment in conservation and "green" investments. At the same time, of course, Ecolo is benefiting from a PS and CDH that have lurched from scandal to scandal in Wallonia, allowing the out-of-power party to be perceived as clean and "different." The party's leader, Jean-Michel Javaux, presents a less-bohemian image than might be expected. He has succeeded in making peace within the party among realists and militants. Enjoying its improved polling numbers, Ecolo is counting the days to June 7 and trying to avoid mistakes. It says it is ready to participate in government after the elections -- overcoming rejectionists in the party -- and BRUSSELS 00000659 003 OF 004 offer a realistic response to modern challenges. The fact according to one poll, that Javaux is the second most popular choice for Wallonia Minister-President after the incumbent Socialist Rudy Demotte, is evidence that the public too sees Ecolo as ready to govern. HANDICAPPING THE ELECTION AND THE NEXT GOVERNMENTS -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) The most recent poll available was performed by the Universite Libre de Bruxelles and published by the French-language left-center newspaper Le Soir on April 30. In Wallonia, it shows the considerable resurgence by Ecolo, with 18 percent of voters expressing an intent to vote "green", compared to 8.52 percent in the 2004 regionals. Ecolo's strength seems to come mainly at the expense of the PS, which although still the most popular party at 28.5 percent, is far down from the nearly 37 percent it actually received in the 2004 regionals. MR clocks in at 25.5 percent, compared to 31.1 percent in the 2007 federal election and nearly equal to its 2004 vote count. This is probably because of concern about the economic situation and a general dissatisfaction with the MR leader, Didier Reynders. Some of that vote may be going to Ecolo as well. Preferences for CDH (15.1 percent) are little changed from previous elections. The right wing Front Nationale has continued a decline from 2004, attracting only 4.9 percent of voters. The most likely outcome of the election is a PS-CDH-Ecolo Wallonia regional government. However, if the MR tops the Socialists in the region for the first time, it would have an opportunity to form a coalition with the CDH and Ecolo, but without the Socialists. ¶10. (U) All Flemish and francophone parties compete for votes in the Brussels region. In the contest for the 72 francophone seats in the regional parliament, the PS has lost support to Ecolo as it has in Wallonia. MR is the most popular party, but it has lost a couple of points since 2007. By contrast, the CDH has gained a little bit. Despite the large number of white-collar workers in the city, MR may be struggling in Brussels as the immigrant population of the city increases, since the Socialists and CDH are more attractive to those who suffer the brunt of Brussels' 20 percent unemployment rate. It also may be losing strength to Ecolo among intellectuals. The entire lineup, according to the poll, is as follows: MR, 26.8 percent, PS, 20.2 percent, Ecolo, 18.8 percent, CDH, 14.1 percent. Currently the strongest Flemish party in Brussels, surpassing the right-wing and Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang, the center-right, European liberal Open VLD has 4.2 percent of voters' preferences. It is competing with the other Flemish parties for seventeen of the 89 seats in the Brussels parliament. As in Wallonia, the rightist parties, FN and Vlaams Belang, have lost strength since 2004. The Socialists would like to reconstitute their PS-CDH-Ecolo-VLD-Sp.A (Flemish Socialist)-CD&V (Flemish Christian Democrat) coalition, but if they cannot overcome MR's lead in the polls by election day they may not get their chance. WHAT DOES THE REGION MEAN FOR BELGIUM? -------------- ¶11. (C) With a month to go before the elections and with probably a quarter of the electorate still undecided about how to vote, there is of course still a chance for surprises. A continuation of center-left rule in Namur and Brussels would emphasize the contrast with the more right-leaning Flemish electorate. But only a major upset, possibly via a truly major gain by Ecolo, coupled with an equivalent surprise in Flanders, would discredit established leaders like Reynders, Di Rupo and Milquet and call into question the viability of the federal coalition. Prime Minister Van Rompuy, a Flemish Christian Democrat, has told Charge that his preference for stability's sake is for the same coalitions to be governing in the regions as in the federal government, that is, Liberal-Socialist-Christian Democrat (reftel). He may get something close to that. In any event, the institutional issues that have been put on the back burner during the regional elections are very likely to return to the fore after June 7. The makeup of the coalitions in Brussels and Namur could have a more or less subtle influence on the course of those discussions. For example, the idea of joining Brussels and Wallonia in a single francophone region is attractive to the MR, which is strong in Brussels, and was recently endorsed by Milquet of the CDH. The PS is quiet about that, however, because its strength would be diluted in a single francophone region. NELSON BRUSSELS 00000659 004 OF 004