BELGIUM:SPLIT BETWEEN LEFTISTS AND CENTRISTS COULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000551 SIPDIS STATE PASS EUR/WE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL BE SUBJECT: BELGIUM:SPLIT BETWEEN LEFTISTS AND CENTRISTS COULD SEND FLEMISH SOCIALISTS TO THE REGIONAL OPPOSITION Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Richard Eason for reasons 1 .4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Flemish Socialist Party (sp.a) is undergoing an internal struggle between leftists and centrists that could send it into the opposition after the June 7, 2009 regional elections. The party is currently part of the three party Flemish regional government with the Christian Democrats (CD&V) and the Liberals (OpenVLD),but went into opposition at the national level after its poor performance in the 2007 national elections. With the party's weak poll numbers varying between thirteen and fourteen percent, Poloff met with representatives of the leftist old guard and the more modern centrists to gauge the party's prospects of once again participating in a regional coalition. sp.a Vice Chairman Dirk Van der Maelen advocates the party's return to a leftist, worker-based platform, while centrist MP and former Minister of Social Security Bruno Tobback believes the party's future is competing for the center. Van der Maelen believes the party should go in to opposition at the regional level and focus on a developing a new leftist message, while Tobback and the younger wing would like to rejoin government at both regional and national levels. If the party were to do well in June and rejoin a regional government, it could push for rehabilitation at the national level. On the other hand, strong electoral returns for the center-right and rightist parties could lead to a right-wing regional government, making sp.a's chances of returning to the national coalition nil. End Summary. ¶2. (C) sp.a Vice President Dirk Van der Maelen described himself to Poloff in late March as part of the sp.a's leftist old guard. He said social democratic parties were doing poorly throughout Europe, with Spain as the possible exception. He attributed social democracy's decline, and the Flemish Socialists' drubbing in the 2007 national elections, to too many years in government, compromising on core principles, and the lack of a grand message to draw voters. He is one of the major advocates within the sp.a for time in opposition after June's regional election. Van der Maelen argued time in opposition at both national and local levels would allow the party to concentrate on building its base and sharpening its message. He noted that the party's younger wing disagreed. Van der Maelen said he was one of the strongest voices within sp.a arguing for a return to focusing on worker's issues and a stronger leftist message. He derided the younger wing's focus on attracting socially liberal professionals living in urban areas. He would continue to push for a focus on workers as the party's true constituents, especially in this time of economic downturn. He even attributed the recent rise of right-wing protest parties in Flanders as a reaction by former sp.a voters to the compromises the sp.a was forced to make as part of government; after a few years in opposition these disaffected socialists would return to the sp.a. ¶3. (C) MP and Former Minister of Social Services Bruno Tobback told Poloff March 30 that being a politician in Belgium right now, especially in the opposition, was unpleasant, as the government has put all major decisions on hold until after the regional elections. Tobback was televised April 4 delivering the sp.a critique of the government's failure to pass a budget and address the financial crisis. Tobback would like his party to re-enter government nationally. He is not certain about sp.a's chances of joining a regional coalition after the June 7 election and predicts that his party might demand a strong concession in a coalition governing plan if it does well, which could include an invitation to rejoin the national government. When asked about the Francophone PS' desire to have sp.a back in the national government, Tobback explained that the PS would face serious criticism if the national government is forced to scale back some social programs in the next few years, while the Flemish Socialists criticize cuts from the opposition. Though Tobback yearns to be back in government, he admits his party has serious challenges in appealing to voters right now. Rather than attributing the sp.a's woes to abandoning Socialist orthodoxy however, he believes the party has failed to compete effectively for the center. The Flemish electorate lies in the center or the center-right according to Tobback, and the sp.a needs to focus on attracting those voters. ¶4. (C) Comment: Only a few months ago, another three party Flemish regional government (CD&V-OpenVLD-sp.a) seemed the most likely outcome after the upcoming June 7 regional elections. The split between the leftists and centrists BRUSSELS 00000551 002 OF 002 within the Flemish Socialist party may prevent sp.a from focusing on a core message and deciding whether to join a coalition should they do better than the thirteen to fourteen percent predicted by recent polls. Alternately, the Flemish center-right parties may choose to court a right-wing party as a governing partner rather than give in to demands from the sp.a that would appease its leftist wing. Whether sp.a decides to go for leftist or centrist voters, it has a long-term problem in the predominantly center-right Flemish political environment. The number of leftist voters seems to be shrinking and the competition for centrist voters is already fiercely contested by the CD&V and the OpenVLD. It is the Francophone Socialist PS across the border in Wallonia that is the main proponent of sp.a success. The PS is part of the national coalition government and would like a Flemish partner to assist in supporting a socialist program nationally. A strong center-right election result on June 7 in Flanders would make it harder for the PS to resist cuts in social programs at the national level and hurt its long-term prospects among its constituents. BUSH .