AFTER THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL: BARROSO HEADING TOWARD SECOND

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000413

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN
SUBJECT: AFTER THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL: BARROSO HEADING TOWARD SECOND
TERM AT COMMISSION'S HELM

REF: USEU-Today 3/18/09

1. (U) SUMMARY. Last week's European Council meeting appears to
have been fruitful for Jose Manuel Barroso. Contacts among the EU
leaders seemed to have helped Barroso regain what may prove decisive
momentum in his campaign to be reappointed President of the EU
Commission. His current five-year term is due to expire at the end
of October 2009. END SUMMARY.

2. (SBU) At a March 19 gathering in Brussels ahead of the European
Council, political leaders belonging to national parties affiliated
with the European People's Party (EPP) gave a new boost to Barroso's
candidacy. EPP President Wilfried Martens told reporters that "Mr.
Barroso has a broad appeal in all the main political families and is
by far the best candidate for this position..." (Note: Neither
Sarkozy nor his Prime Minister Francois Fillon, whose name has been
mentioned in some circles as a possible alternative to Barroso,
attended the EPP meeting on Thursday. End Note).

3. (U) A rival gathering of the European Socialist leaders on March
19 failed to agree on a possible left-wing candidate for the
Commission Presidency (the name of former Danish Social-Democrat PM
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen had been mentioned in that respect). Consensus
among Socialist/Social-Democrats proved impossible as some of their
leaders, including UK's Brown, Portugal's Socrates, Spain's
Zapatero, have already voiced support for a renewal of Barroso's
mandate. Finnish PM Vanhanen (neither EPP nor Socialist) also
repeatedly called for a renewal of Barroso's mandate.

4. (U) For its part, the European Parliament made it clear through
its President Hans-Gert Poettering on March 19 that it was in favor
of EU leaders agreeing on their nominee for the Commission
Presidency in June so that Parliament can hold its Treaty-required
confirmation vote on the nominee in mid-July. Poettering stressed
that the choice of the Commission President "must reflect the
outcome of the European elections" and that "for this to happen,
consultations between the Council Presidency and the European
Parliament will be necessary." Based on the text of his address to
EU leaders and his own clarifications at a press conference,
Poettering served notice that Parliament would be "willing to
conduct consultations with the Presidency (of the EU Council) after
the elections and before the June (18-19) meeting of the European
Council." Poettering implied that such consultations could happen
around June 16-17, taking account of the delay necessary for the
newly-elected Parliament to organize itself.

5. (SBU) There was a rumor in last week's European Council corridors
that the June 18-19 meeting of the European Council could be
postponed for a week. When questioned about it at the final press
conference, Czech PM/European Council chair Mirek Topolanek
demurred, noting that the question was "not discussed." As for
Poettering's insistence that the leaders should pronounce in June,
Topolanek observed this was not a proposal from Poettering (as the
questioner and the EP President implied) but a decision from the
December 2008 European Council.

6. (SBU) At the end of 2008, EU leaders actually agreed they would
decide on the next Commission President at their June 2009 Summit,
shortly after the European elections. However, French President
Nicolas Sarkozy cast doubt on this timetable by suggesting earlier
this month that the appointment should only be decided upon after
another Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which is set
scheduled (but with no precise date) for Fall 2009. (Comment:
Sarkozy, who had been forced to adjust the terms of his government's
plan to assist the French car industry in consultations with the
Commission last month, appears to have toned down his public backing
of the Commission President in the run-up to the Euro-elections,
knowing that his political opponents will use the campaign to
criticize the policies of the Barroso Commission. End Comment)

7. (SBU) The March 19-20 European Council and side meetings to it
appear to have reinforced the utility of choosing a Commission
President shortly after the June Euro-elections in order limit
political uncertainties about the holders of key EU positions in the
middle of a deepening economic crisis. Provided that the EEP group
retains its dominant position in the European Parliament elected on
June 4-7 (a reasonably safe assumption, according to opinion polls),
this plays into the hands of the incumbent and front-runner Barroso.
To be sure, Barroso would like his mandate to be renewed as early
as possible instead of seeing his fate hanging on the future of the
Lisbon Treaty and a more comprehensive bargaining on nominations to
top-level EU jobs to be created under the Lisbon Treaty.

MURRAY