Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BRUSSELS293
2009-03-03 15:54:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:
FRANCOPHONE LIBERAL REYNDERS EYES JUNE REGIONAL
how-toVZCZCXRO8205 RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHBS #0293 0621554 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 031554Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8657 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000293
SIPDIS
STATE PASS EUR/WE KATHERINE SHARP
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: FRANCOPHONE LIBERAL REYNDERS EYES JUNE REGIONAL
ELECTIONS
UNCLAS BRUSSELS 000293
SIPDIS
STATE PASS EUR/WE KATHERINE SHARP
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: FRANCOPHONE LIBERAL REYNDERS EYES JUNE REGIONAL
ELECTIONS
1. Summary: In the upcoming June European and Regional
elections, the Francophone Liberal (MR) party, led by Didier
Reynders, seeks to become the number one party in the Walloon
and Brussels regional governments. The MR's stronghold is
Brussels, but Wallonia remains a contested area. Reynders
has been focusing on strategies to ensure the best possible
outcome. Concerned with a challenge by well-known,
conservative Fleming Rudy Aernoudt's participation on the
Francophone ballot, Reynders invited Aernoudt to join the MR
ticket. This caused tension in the MR from its nationalist
wing, the Francophone Democratic Front (FDF). Forced to
choose between the FDF and Aernoudt, Reynders abruptly struck
Aernoudt off the ticket. A second part of Reynders,
strategy is to form a coalition with the Christian Democrats
(CDH),who have remained committed to a coalition with the
Socialists. End Summary.
RECENT FRANCOPHONE ELECTORAL AND POLITICAL HISTORY
2. The MR has tried for decades to dislodge the Socialists
from their position as the strongest party in Francophone
Belgium. In the nineties, then MR leader Louis Michel,
attempted to form a coalition with the CDH, but the effort
never succeeded. Michel instead joined the federal and
regional governments with the Socialists in 1999. In 2004,
the MR continued its efforts to recruit defectors from the
CDH, and thereby increase its numbers until the MR
outnumbered the PS. As a result, Socialist Party (PS)
President Elio Di Rupo considered forming a PS-CDH regional
coalition that excluded the MR. The MR viewed this as a
&betrayal" and began the continuing "open warfare" between
the MR and PS. Tension between the two parties heightened
when the PS lost the Namur and Charleroi municipal elections
in 2006.
3. In the upcoming June 7 regional and European elections the
Federal Deputy, Prime Minister, and Finance Minister Reynders
hopes to make the MR the leading party in Wallonia and the
Brussels region. In the 2004 Walloon regional elections the
PS won 36.9 percent of the popular vote and the MR 24.3
percent; in the Brussels region the PS beat the MR by less
than 1%. By 2007 the MR. In the 2007 federal elections, the
MR defeated the PS in Wallonia 31.2 percent to 29.5 percent;
in Brussels the MR outpolled the PS by a ten percent margin.
The MR was helped by a series of political scandals among the
PS in Wallonia. In June, the main area of contention will
once again be Wallonia, where the MR will try to repeat its
federal success at the regional level. The Brussels region
has become an MR stronghold.
CURIOUS COMPETITION FROM A FLEMING
4. Reynders was confronted with an unusual electoral decision
in 2008, when the fiercely pro-Belgian Fleming Rudy Aernoudt,
who had moved to Wallonia, decided to run as a candidate in
the Walloon regional and European elections. Aernoudt is
well known for leaking revelations about his former boss,
Flemish Regional Minister Fientje Moerman. After his exile
from Flemish politics, he moved to Wallonia to become
chief-of-staff to then MR Walloon Regional Minister of
Economy Serge Kubla. Aernoudt is a conservative, free
enterprise advocate and is no real threat to Reynders' party,
but Reynders did not want to take any chances on losing a few
percentage points in the total vote and offered the popular
Aernoudt a spot on his ticket. The Francophone nationalist
wing of the MR in the Brussels region, the anti-Flemish
Francophone Democratic Front (FDF),strongly opposed
Aernoudt's addition to the MR list. The FDF is a relentless
advocate of a greater (Francophone) Brussels capital region,
to which Aernoudt is opposed. There are also significant
differences between the FDF and Aernoudt on social policy.
Forced to choose between the two, Reynders pulled Aernoudt
off the MR ticket.
5. Comment: Reynders has long been considered one of the
country's finest political strategists. However his erratic
turn about in the Aernoudt episode, his handling of the
financial crisis, and the criticism of the finance ministry
and tax bureaucracy have tarnished his image. The brilliant
strategist may have a problem defeating the Socialists
decisively on the June 7. His recent problems might also
make the CDH less comfortable with his dream MR-CDH
coalition. Reynders could well end up swallowing his pride
and reaching out to the Socialists on June 8 to form an
MR-PS-CDH coalition.
BUSH
.
SIPDIS
STATE PASS EUR/WE KATHERINE SHARP
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: FRANCOPHONE LIBERAL REYNDERS EYES JUNE REGIONAL
ELECTIONS
1. Summary: In the upcoming June European and Regional
elections, the Francophone Liberal (MR) party, led by Didier
Reynders, seeks to become the number one party in the Walloon
and Brussels regional governments. The MR's stronghold is
Brussels, but Wallonia remains a contested area. Reynders
has been focusing on strategies to ensure the best possible
outcome. Concerned with a challenge by well-known,
conservative Fleming Rudy Aernoudt's participation on the
Francophone ballot, Reynders invited Aernoudt to join the MR
ticket. This caused tension in the MR from its nationalist
wing, the Francophone Democratic Front (FDF). Forced to
choose between the FDF and Aernoudt, Reynders abruptly struck
Aernoudt off the ticket. A second part of Reynders,
strategy is to form a coalition with the Christian Democrats
(CDH),who have remained committed to a coalition with the
Socialists. End Summary.
RECENT FRANCOPHONE ELECTORAL AND POLITICAL HISTORY
2. The MR has tried for decades to dislodge the Socialists
from their position as the strongest party in Francophone
Belgium. In the nineties, then MR leader Louis Michel,
attempted to form a coalition with the CDH, but the effort
never succeeded. Michel instead joined the federal and
regional governments with the Socialists in 1999. In 2004,
the MR continued its efforts to recruit defectors from the
CDH, and thereby increase its numbers until the MR
outnumbered the PS. As a result, Socialist Party (PS)
President Elio Di Rupo considered forming a PS-CDH regional
coalition that excluded the MR. The MR viewed this as a
&betrayal" and began the continuing "open warfare" between
the MR and PS. Tension between the two parties heightened
when the PS lost the Namur and Charleroi municipal elections
in 2006.
3. In the upcoming June 7 regional and European elections the
Federal Deputy, Prime Minister, and Finance Minister Reynders
hopes to make the MR the leading party in Wallonia and the
Brussels region. In the 2004 Walloon regional elections the
PS won 36.9 percent of the popular vote and the MR 24.3
percent; in the Brussels region the PS beat the MR by less
than 1%. By 2007 the MR. In the 2007 federal elections, the
MR defeated the PS in Wallonia 31.2 percent to 29.5 percent;
in Brussels the MR outpolled the PS by a ten percent margin.
The MR was helped by a series of political scandals among the
PS in Wallonia. In June, the main area of contention will
once again be Wallonia, where the MR will try to repeat its
federal success at the regional level. The Brussels region
has become an MR stronghold.
CURIOUS COMPETITION FROM A FLEMING
4. Reynders was confronted with an unusual electoral decision
in 2008, when the fiercely pro-Belgian Fleming Rudy Aernoudt,
who had moved to Wallonia, decided to run as a candidate in
the Walloon regional and European elections. Aernoudt is
well known for leaking revelations about his former boss,
Flemish Regional Minister Fientje Moerman. After his exile
from Flemish politics, he moved to Wallonia to become
chief-of-staff to then MR Walloon Regional Minister of
Economy Serge Kubla. Aernoudt is a conservative, free
enterprise advocate and is no real threat to Reynders' party,
but Reynders did not want to take any chances on losing a few
percentage points in the total vote and offered the popular
Aernoudt a spot on his ticket. The Francophone nationalist
wing of the MR in the Brussels region, the anti-Flemish
Francophone Democratic Front (FDF),strongly opposed
Aernoudt's addition to the MR list. The FDF is a relentless
advocate of a greater (Francophone) Brussels capital region,
to which Aernoudt is opposed. There are also significant
differences between the FDF and Aernoudt on social policy.
Forced to choose between the two, Reynders pulled Aernoudt
off the MR ticket.
5. Comment: Reynders has long been considered one of the
country's finest political strategists. However his erratic
turn about in the Aernoudt episode, his handling of the
financial crisis, and the criticism of the finance ministry
and tax bureaucracy have tarnished his image. The brilliant
strategist may have a problem defeating the Socialists
decisively on the June 7. His recent problems might also
make the CDH less comfortable with his dream MR-CDH
coalition. Reynders could well end up swallowing his pride
and reaching out to the Socialists on June 8 to form an
MR-PS-CDH coalition.
BUSH
.