SPECIAL ENVOY GRATION BRIEFS THE EU'S POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001724 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PBTS PINR PREF SMIG KAWC KPKO CD, SU SUBJECT: SPECIAL ENVOY GRATION BRIEFS THE EU'S POLITICAL AND SECURITY COMMITTEE ON SUDAN Classified By: USEU DCM Christopher Murray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Briefing the EU Council Political and Security Committee (PSC) in Brussels on December 18, Special Envoy Scott Gration said that the U.S. seeks to end the conflict in Darfur, supports the North-South Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),and wants to keep Sudan from becoming a safehaven for terrorists. Gration reported that the U.S. supports the Doha peace process, strengthening UNAMID, and working with NGOs. To implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, Gration said that the U.S. is actively engaged with the parties in an effort to prepare for the post CPA period. Gration identified four areas for U.S. and EU cooperation - security and stabilization, support of UNAMID and UNMIS peacekeeping operations, elections, and humanitarian assistance. PSC Ambassadors welcomed Gration's overview and posed a range of questions about the implications of current developments. End Summary. U.S. Efforts to Achieve Peace -------------- ¶2. (C) Special Envoy Gration briefed the EU Council Political and Security Committee (PSC) in Brussels December 18 about U.S. objectives in Sudan, which are seeking an end to the conflict in Darfur, supporting the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),and keeping Sudan from becoming a safehaven for terrorists. In an effort to end the conflict, Gration reported that the U.S. supports the Doha peace process, strengthening UNAMID, and working with NGOs. To further the CPA, Gration said that the U.S. is actively engaged with the parties in an effort to prepare for the post-referendum period. ¶3. (C) Gration identified four areas for U.S. and EU cooperation. He highlighted security and stabilization as the first area, calling for mechanisms to enhance security for local populations. Next, Gration suggested continued support of UNAMID and UNMIS peacekeeping operations and support for April 2010 elections. Lastly, Gration identified humanitarian assistance, including support for local communities as IDPs transition out of camps in the future. EU Reactions and Concerns -------------- ¶4. (C) European Commission representative to the PSC Richard Wright said that the EU will decide next month on an election monitoring mission for the April 2010 elections, a decision which High Representative Ashton will make, according to Wright. Wright said that these would be the first elections in nearly 25 years, so an evaluation of electoral conditions would be necessary. Wright asked Gration about the feasibility of credible elections, noting that political leaders in southern Sudan were following preparations closely. ¶5. (C) Danish Ambassador Faaborg-Anderson said that elections are key and noted some progress in setting up necessary legislation for them. He was most interested in learning how Gration saw a post-2011 scenario and inquired as to whether the south will want to secede. Dutch Ambassador De Kwaasteniet suggested that voter registration has gone smoothly and similarly shared concern about the potential for secession of the South, asking Gration for his views about next steps after the election. ¶6. (C) UK Ambassador Barrow noted some recent positives and asked Gration whether there was a link between elections and a referendum, and his views on the Mbeki report. The Portuguese Ambassador said that he shared most of our views and asked what role the African Union could play. The View from the U.S. -------------- ¶7. (C) Gration said that the U.S. is pleased with the level of participation in the voter registration process, adding that the SPLM may register up to two million persons. Given the arrival of rains, Gration said that it was important to hold the elections on time. Turning to the referendum registration process, Gration said that it will begin in July 2010 and it must be transparent. Gration said that the election is a dry run for the referendum as the processes are similar and that successful April 2010 elections will add legitimacy to the referendum results. ¶8. (C) Concerning scenarios for 2011, Gration reported that BRUSSELS 00001724 002 OF 002 it was likely Southerners will vote to secede. The CPA says we will work until 2011 to have unity and separation on equal footing. Envisioning the south to declare independence on July 9, 2011, Gration said that increased government capacity, roads, and railway connections were vital and he stressed that return to civil war would be disastrous. To help avert this, Gration said that we should strive for a soft border between North and South which would better enable resource sharing on issues such as grazing land, Nile waters, and petroleum, adding that the parties must agree on these elements. He noted that Chatham House and the USIP have done good analytical work in this area, adding that on oil sharing both sides would need a solution seen as win-win. ¶9. (C) Gration said that there is a proxy war between Chad and Sudan playing out in Darfur, and that the role of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebels must be reduced. He suggested that the Dakar Agreement needed to be implemented and said that there was a role for the Mbeki Plan on accountability and justice. Gration suggested merging this with the ICC, adding that there was less and les of a role for Doha on security and Chad-Sudanrelations. ¶10. (C) Greek Ambassador Demiris asked about elections, international monitors, and the relationship among Russia, Egypt, and UNAMID, while Polish Ambassador Peksa-Rawiec stressed cooperation. German Ambassador Andreas Kindal asked about the working of the Defense Board. Belgian Ambassador Walter Stevens suggested that links between Khartoum and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) were contributing to violence in the South; and he asked about Bashir and the ICC. Irish Ambassador Bean mentioned Chad-Sudan issues and Italian Deputy PSC Ambassador di Michele pointed to the role of China. ¶11. (C) Gration noted that Russia and China are part of the Envoy Six, or E6, group and have the same interests as Europe and the U.S. in a stable Sudan, though for different reasons. UNAMID has suffered some losses, primarily among its Rwandan forces. NGOs face a tough environment in Sudan. Concerning relations between former South African president Mbeki, who headed the AU/UN High Level Panel on Darfur, and Djibril Bassole, the AU/UN Joint mediator, Gration suggested that both needed to have complementary relations, not competitive ones, adding that time was running out on the Doha process. As for DDR and the Defense Board, Gration said making the military more professional, with better capacity, should be the goal. Concerning possible linkages between the National Congress Party and the LRA, Gration reported that the U.S. cannot find any and that there appear to be no arms going from Khartoum to the south. EUSR Torben Brylle said that he hopes to have complementarity between the Doha process and Mbeki report. ¶12. (U) Special Envoy Gration has cleared on this cable. KENNARD .