AMBASSADOR GUTMAN'S OCTOBER 16 MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001512 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RPM AND ISN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MNUC ECON BE SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR GUTMAN'S OCTOBER 16 MEETING WITH BELGIAN DEFENSE MINISTER PIETER DE CREM Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Lange Schermerhorn, reaso n 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a wide-ranging conversation with Belgian Defense Minister Peter De Crem, the Ambassador urged De Crem to take an active role in world security issues, including Afghanistan, closure of the Guantanamo prison, and climate change. De Crem was sympathetic, and indicated that Belgian Prime Minister Van Rompuy may be more easily convinced to seek a leadership role in Europe for Belgium than Foreign Minister Yves Leterme. De Crem was satisfied with the reception given his restructuring plans for the Belgian military, which he had presented the day before to the Belgian parliament. Despite a 97 million euro cut planned for defense expenditures, he has no plans to reduce the Belgian commitment to Afghanistan through 2010 and in fact expects to send a second Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team (OMLT) in the next few months. Looking even farther forward, De Crem showed interest in purchasing Joint Strike Fighers to replace Belgium's F-16's when they reach the end of their useful life. He spoke at length about differences in cultural and social values in Flanders and Wallonia. He described Belgium's bilateral relationship with the Netherlands as strong, despite recent differences over deepening for the Scheldt river leading to the port of Antwerp. De Crem's colleagues described the military's efforts to lower the average age of Belgium's military by seeking talented recruits from disadvantaged families, especially new immigrants. They also discussed Belgium's intention to take command of the EU's anti-piracy operation Atalanta in the second half of 2010, which will require Belgium to seek assistance in quartering command personnel and accommodating necessary communications equipment. Also participating in the meeting were De Crem's Chief of Staff, Ludwig Van Der Veken, the Chief of Military Operations, Admiral Marc Ectors, and the MOD's diplomatic advisor, Vincent Mertens de Wilmars. End Summary. A LEADERSHIP ROLE FOR BELGIUM -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met privately with De Crem for nearly one hour. The Ambassador and De Crem agreed that there is a growing concern in the Belgian government about Belgium's standing in the world. This has manifested itself in disappointment expressed to the Ambassador by various Belgian officials with Belgium's failure to be included in the G-20, although its economy ranks about number 18 in the world. De Crem noted that in the past the world has revolved around the U.S. and Europe, with Belgium firmly a part of Europe. Now, the world has moved from seven large, dominant economies to 20 plus 3, with Belgium on the outside looking in. He admitted that Belgium has no one to blame for this but itself. Belgium could be playing more "above its weight" like Denmark, De Crem recognized. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador said he understands Belgium's budgetary constraints, but sees an opportunity to create a win-win situation for both Belgium and the United States. There are a number of current issues, he said, that are less about money and more about taking leadership. One such issue, which is viewed with importance in Washington, is closure of the Guantanamo prison. The difficulties in transferring the detainees are now raising doubts about whether it can be closed on schedule. The Ambassador said that the problem is a worldwide concern, and Europe's leadership is needed. That could easily originate in Belgium. FM Leterme could make a speech announcing Belgium's intention to take fifteen detainees and urging other European nations to take an equal number each. The issue of Guantanamo would be quickly put to an end. The same logic applies to Afghanistan. When a call for action is issued after the McChrystal report is analyzed, Belgium could be first out of the box. Another area in which Belgium could take a more active role, the Ambassador suggested, is climate change in the run-up to the Copenhagen Summit. Belgium's help to smooth out potential areas of disagreement as the Summit preparations continue will be much appreciated, he said. ¶4. (C) De Crem was enthusiatic about the concept of a win-win scenario, although he made no immediate commitment. He understood it as an opportunity for Belgium to take the lead on one or more meaningful issues. De Crem said that he believes Prime Minister Van Rompuy can be brought onto the same page, but that Foreign Minister Leterme will be harder to convince. He promised to carry the Ambassador's message to the Prime Minister. He said that Belgium is making no cuts to its existing Afghanistan commitments and that he is BRUSSELS 00001512 002 OF 003 in a position to increase them, so long as other members of the government can be convinced to go along. BUDGET AND RESTRUCTURING -------------- ¶5. (C) The meeting with De Crem took place one day after De Crem had presented his plan for restructuring of the Belgian military to the Parliament, and two days after the government decided on its overall budget for 2010-2011. De Crem said he viewed the budget as a big win for the government, where previously its acceptance has been a chronic problem. He confirmed that the expected cut in defense expenditures for 2010-2011 is firm at 97 million euros. He was, however, content that the Belgian system gives him a relatively free hand in deciding the shape of the military within the given budget. While he may well reduce Belgium's commitment to UNIFIL in Lebanon and KFOR in Kosovo, he does not intend to cut Belgium's contributions to ISAF in Afghanistan. In fact, he intends to send a second Operational Liaison and Mentoring Team to Afghanistan, probably just after the new year begins. ¶6. (C) De Crem wondered aloud how he could ever successfully reform the military if each decision had to be made in compromise among the regions and the federal government, as is the case in most situations in Belgium. De Crem was also satisfied with the reaction of the Parliament's defense committee gave to his presentation on October 14. The deputies were upset that the plan had been discussed with the military unions and with the press before being presented to them, but had little more to say. At the defense committee presentation, De Crem challenged his critics to come up with a better plan that would be workable within the reduced budget. He acknowledged that the parliamentarians are mostly concerned with the impact of local base closings in their particular constituencies than the other aspects of the reorganization. One of De Crem's critics, former Defense Minister Andre Flahaut, took a front seat at the Defense Committee hearing and made an opening statement lamenting the lack of previous notice of the plan. He was the only deputy who left the room before De Crem began his presentation. De Crem said that it was his impression that Flahaut did not find much of substance in the plan to complain about. As he has in other conversations, De Crem said that he was disappointed that his critics were not more vocal and prepared. (Even though the plan was presented to the Defense Committee officially at the last moment, its outlines were well reported in the press beforehand). Such criticism keeps him on his toes, he said, and allows him to make his points so the press will cover them. JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER -------------- ¶7. (C) De Crem mentioned in an aside that he supports the idea of Belgium purchasing the Joint Strike Fighter when the lifespan of Belgium's existing fleet of F-16's expires, estimated to be 2015 for the oldest planes and continuing up to about 2025. He recognized that Belgium is too late to enter the production process of the aircraft as a partner. However, he thinks that the GOB should purchase some of the aircraft "off the shelf" from the partners as they become available, perhaps in the 2020 time frame. FLANDERS/WALLONIA DIFFERENCES -------------- ¶8. (C) De Crem spoke at length about historical, cultural and economic differences between Flanders and Wallonia. He said that the decline of the traditional coal and steel industries forced a difficult transition on both regions of Belgium. The transition began in the late 1950's in Wallonia, he said, and in the 1960's and 1970's came to the coal mines in towns like Hasselt in Eastern Flanders. He believes that the government of Flanders handled the transition better than that of Wallonia, in that it ensured that federal money for restructuring was channeled into post-industrial business development and job training in Flanders, while it was used to fund social institutions and soccer fields in Wallonia. The result, he said, is that too much employment in Wallonia depends directly on the government, and the region has yet to develop a more entrepreneurial culture such as exists in Flanders. He laid the blame in large part on the long rule of the Socialist Party in Wallonia, which has only recently begun to accept a more liberal approach to the economy, and which has always defended generous social benefits that discourage the unemployed from seeking jobs. BRUSSELS 00001512 003 OF 003 RELATIONS WARM WITH NETHERLANDS -------------- ¶9. (C) De Crem was asked about the ongoing controversy with the Netherlands over deepening of the Scheldt river bed to allow larger ships to enter the port of Antwerp, which as been delayed by environmental concerns in the Netherlands, to the dismay of the GOB. Despite this dispute, De Crem said that relations with the Netherlands are close and friendly, especially in the area of defense. He reminded the Ambassador that links with the Netherlands have been extremely close since the establishment of the Benelux in the early 1950's. In particular, De Crem said, he is good friends with fellow Christian Democrat and Prime Minister of the Netherlands Jan Peter Balkenende. THE NEED FOR A YOUNGER MILITARY -------------- ¶10. (C) In a side conversation, Van Der Veken talked about ongoing concerns about the average age of military personnel. Under the reorganization, in order to reach the goal of a 3,000 person cut to 34,000 troops, the ranks of senior officers will be reduced by attrition based on ordinary retirements and a limited number of early retirement incentives. Efforts up to this point under Minister De Crem have reduced the average age to 38, less than it has been for some years. The intake is expected to be about 1200 to 1300 per year. In order to increase recruitment, a system of "voluntary conscription" is soon to be introduced. This will allow men and women with lower educational qualifications (less than high school) to enter the military on a probationary basis. Many of them are likely to be new immigrants to Belgium, mostly from North Africa. If they prove their mettle, their commanding officers can recommend them for entry into the ranks of the regular military. Van Der Veken said that Belgium recruitment efforts have benefited from the difficult job market resulting from the worldwide economic crisis. TAKING COMMAND OF ATALANTA -------------- ¶11. (C) In another side conversation, Admiral Ectors told Poloff that Belgian participation in the EU's Atalanta anti-piracy operation in the Indian Ocean is proceeding satisfactorily. As the weather in the area improves, the Belgians are noticing an uptick in piracy attempts. The pirates use the many uninhabited islands of the Seychelles as hideouts, he said, and the Seychelles is having a difficult time controlling them. Belgium is scheduled to take over command of the operation after it takes over the EU presidency in July 2010. Ectors is discussing with the Dutch obtaining space on a Dutch ship in the area to accommodate necessary personnel and equipment. The Marie-Louise, the Belgian ship participating in the exercise, has no space for the extra crew required for command and control purposes, and also has no space or configuration for the necessary communications equipment. Although the Belgians have a team of military ship-riders ready to go on the Marie-Louise, there has not been much demand from shipowners to have them provide security on Belgian ships passing through the region. GUTMAN .