BELGIUM'S GOALS FOR THE AFRICAN GREAT LAKES REGION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001425

SIPDIS
STATE PASS AF/C WOLPE, KEITH, LAMORA AND CASEY, EUR/WE
MARCUS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (GARBLED TEXT)
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2029
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EAID SOCI CG BE
SUBJECT: BELGIUM'S GOALS FOR THE AFRICAN GREAT LAKES REGION

Classified By: Acting DCM for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador Gutman hosted a luncheon October 8
with the Belgian MFA Africa team and the Chief of Staff to
Belgium's Minister for Development Cooperation to discuss
Belgium's priorities in the African Great Lakes region.
Regarding the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC),Belgium
believes the international community must first decide on and
convey a united message to the GoDRC on political and
development issues. Second, the international community must
coordinate closely in Kinshasa, on the ground, and in their
capitals. Third, the responsibility for leading expert
groups on particular areas of action -- security sector
reform (SSR),economic governance, etc. -- should be divided
up among donor countries. Fourth, the expert groups should
meet with the government of the DRC and gauge what the GoDRC
is willing to commit; donors should then monitor and move
forward with programs at a pace commensurate with Congolese
commitment and engagement. The Belgians do not believe
progress can be achieved in a short time frame they would
like the Great Lakes Contact Group (GLCG) to agree on 2-3
year, five year, and ten year targets for political progress
in the DRC. The GOB will measure the success of the October
14 GLCG meeting on whether the five goals above are agreed to
by partners. Belgium believes that DRC President Kabila
responds to international pressure when donor countries speak
with one voice. The time to put pressure on the GoDRC is
now, prior to the 2010 independence celebration and the 2011
elections. The MFA also expressed concerns about the
upcoming elections in Burundi and about the Kagame regime in
Rwanda. END SUMMARY.

Introduction
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador hosted a lunch October 8 to discuss
Belgium's priorities in Africa prior to the October 14 Great
Lakes Contact Group (GLCG) meeting. The Belgian MFA recently
re-evaluated its Africa policies and goals this summer after
Yves Leterme replaced Karel De Gucht as Foreign Minister.
The luncheon participants were: MFA Africa Director Renier
Nijskens, FM Leterme's advisor on Africa Karl D'haene, Congo
Desk Officer Hugues Chantry, Burundi and Rwanda Desk Officer
Stephane Doppagne, the Chief of Staff to Development Minister
Michel, Bruno Van Der Pluijm, and Embassy's Acting Deputy
Chief of Mission, Political Officer and Political Section
Intern.

A United International Community and Congolese Buy-In
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Belgium hopes to obtain partner country agreement on a
united course of action on the DRC at the October 14 GLCG
meeting. The GOB has become frustrated by the GoDRC's
ability to play donors against each other, as well as the
lack of any progress on a host of issues even though millions
of Euros have been spent. Belgium believes a united, well
coordinated international community can effectively pressure
the GoDRC towards real progress on issues of concern.
Belgium will try to obtain agreement on the following goals
at the GLCG meeting:

-- a united message that is to be delivered by each donor
country to the GoDRC.

-- agreement on a three-part coordination mechanism for the
donor countries in Kinshasa, on the ground, and in capitals.

-- a division of leadership for areas of cooperation,
establishing expert groups in each area (SSR, corruption, and
economic governance, for example).

-- the need for these expert groups to meet with and obtain
buy-in from the Congolese. The Belgians believe the GoDRC
must be involved and committed to projects. Ideally, the
international community might even focus on funding Congolese
supported home-grown projects.


4. (C) Belgium is now convinced that only a unified
international community putting pressure on the GoDRC will
obtain the outcome donor countries are seeking. The GOB
believes an incentive or "carrot and stick" approach can be
used once Congolese buy-in and commitment is obtained.
Rather than simply disbursing money regardless of Congolese
behavior, donor countries should only move as fast as the
Congolese, while guiding them in a desirable direction. In
discussing who might have the lead on specific issues, the
Belgians mentioned the EU Special Representative as the best
candidate for leading the expert group on SSR. Belgium
thinks that sexual violence and the problem of official
impunity would be best addressed as part of SSR.

Kabila Responds to Pressure
--------------


5. (C) The Ambassador asked about the GoDRC's responsiveness
to international pressure and Kabila's effectiveness. The
MFA said Kabila has responded to international pressure when
different countries delivered the same message. They also
said he had the power at his disposal to solve problems when
he makes up his mind to do so. Chantry said that Kabila, not
his entourage, is truly in charge, and the question is one of
political will. As an example, the Belgians mentioned a
previous UN Security Council visit, when UN officials
mentioned the problems of abuse within the Congolese
military. Kabila became angry and took action against the
offending officers. Belgium does not want to take the lead
in delivering strong messages, but will discuss appropriate
messaging with international partners. The Belgians think
the international community has let the Kabila government off
the hook too often. They think it is time to put pressure on
him again, and Secretary Clinton's raising of sexual violence
as an issue is just the kind of message that Kabila needs to
hear.

Celebrations and Elections - Act Now
--------------


6. (C) The Belgians believe it is now time to put pressure on
the Congolese. They think Kabila is currently obsessed with
holding a successful celebration of fifty years of Congolese
independence in 2010 and winning the presidential election in

2011. Delivering firm and targeted messages now would
therefore have real impact. The MFA pointed out that Kabila
could put off the election if the international community is
too docile. They suggested a nightmare scenario in which
Kabila might modify the constitution to extend his term from
5-7 years; postpone the 2011 election to 2013; get
international donors to fund his five priority areas for
development without using any GoDRC resources; obtain debt
relief from international financial institutions; use the
Rwanda - DRC rapprochement as evidence that the security
situation in the eastern DRC has improved; and then expel
MONUC. He could then hold an election in 2013, claim he has
set the country on the right path, and set himself up as
president for life.


7. (C) Poloff asked if the Belgians had seen any sign that a
constitutional change extending Kabila's term in office is
plausible. Chantry responded that DRC Foreign Minister
Thambwe was straightforward during his meeting with FM
Leterme at UNGA in New York. Thambwe said, "we poor Congolese
are obsessed with democracy and want to hold elections, but
if you do not pay, we poor Congolese will be forced to change
the constitution." After prodding by the ambassador, the
Belgians said holding elections on time is important, no
matter what Kabila's behavior might be, because parliamentary
and local elections will be held at the same time. The GOB
believes the parliament and local governments are the
breeding grounds for future leaders and grass roots political
development. They therefore encouraged the USG to remain
strong in discussions with GoDRC leaders. They urged the USG
to engage the GoDRC on the broad political situation and not
limit discussions to sexual violence as a lone concern.
Nijskens said that sexual violence is only a symptom of many
problems in the DRC. The Ambassador asked whether an
extension of the MONUC mandate is important, considering
MONUC's shortcomings. The MFA said the violence in the East
would only get worse if MONUC pulled out, and added that the
MONUC presence allows for intelligence collection. It also
supports an NGO presence on the ground that informs the world
about the violence against women occurring there. Van der
Pluijm suggested there are similar problems in the central
and northern parts of the country which are not receiving
publicity because of the lack of an international presence.

Long-Term Engagement
--------------


8. (C) The MFA cautioned against expecting quick results in
the DRC, whether on sexual violence or other issues. Rather,
Belgium believes the international community must remain
committed for the long run and expect it to take at least
fifteen years to obtain real transformation of the GoDRC's
political mentality. Nijskens said he hoped the GLCG could
agree on two to three year, five year, and 15 year targets
for different issues affecting the DRC.
Rwanda, Burundi
--------------


9. (C) The Belgians briefly mentioned Rwanda and their
concern that failure by the strong Kagame regime to address
the underlying problems of the Tutsi-Hutu situation will lead
to another ethnic catastrophe in the future. They were more
positive, if still cautious, about Burundi. The GOB sees
Burundi as a possible success story in Africa, especially if
the elections next year go smoothly. Nevertheless, they
stressed the need for the international community to remain
vigilant and communicate its concerns to the Burundian
government. The GOB's new aid program for Burundi includes
incentives for a successful election, which they expect to
sign during the President of Burundi's state visit to Belgium
on October 22-23.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The GOB clearly views the new Administration's
interest in Africa positively. The MFA perceives that the
United States is moving towards more active engagement in the
Great Lakes region and is hopeful the U.S. government shares
many of Belgium's concerns. The GOB wants to see an active
international donor community that speaks with one voice and
holds the DRC accountable on a wide range of issues from
elections to security sector reform. However, Belgium is not
likely to be as outspoken in its criticism of the GoDRC as it
was under FM Karl De Gucht, when bilateral relations soured
after De Gucht's stinging criticism of the GoDRC in April

2008. Rather, Belgium will push for a strong, unified
international community through the Great Lakes Contact
Group. They hope and expect that the United States will back
their efforts. The Belgians are ready and willing to work
with us to improve the situation in the DRC in the short,
medium, and long term.

GUTMAN
.