UNDER SECRETARY TAUSHCER TO EU: BE READY TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001270 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2019 TAGS: PARM ETTC PREL XF IR EUN SUBJECT: UNDER SECRETARY TAUSHCER TO EU: BE READY TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE ON IRAN BRUSSELS 00001270 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Christopher Murray for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C//NF) Summary: Under Secretary Ellen Tauscher's September 1 visit to Brussels was an important opportunity to reinforce to the EU that Iran has until September 24, between the start of UNGA and the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, to respond to the U.S. and P5 1 offers to negotiate on the nuclear program. If Iran does not respond, she said heads of state will consider measures to increase the pressure on Iran, including significant sanctions. She also stressed that the U.S. and EU cannot allow the Iranian government to use the political crisis as an excuse not to respond to our offer, and that we must take the initiative rather than ceding it to the Iranians. Annalisa Giannella, Javier Solana's personal representative on non-proliferation, said a UNSCR on sanctions -- even an incomplete one -- would help lay the foundation for autonomous EU sanctions, but absent a UNSCR, EU Member States will have difficulty agreeing on autonomous measures. In a separate meeting, Robert Cooper, Director-General for External and Pol-Mil Affairs, projected that the international community may have years until Iran takes a decision to weaponize, suggesting that we need to prepare to increase the pressure, but that we need not panic yet. Over lunch, EU Ambassadors noted that their foreign ministers will discuss the Iran issue at the EU's informal ministerial on September 4-5, with Denmark adding that we need to begin to consider "crippling sanctions" and the UK asking if "Russia is starting to get it." End Summary. ¶2. (C) On September 1, Under Secretary Ellen Tauscher discussed Iran in separate meetings with the EU's envoy for non-proliferation, Annalisa Giannella, EU Council Director-General for External and Political-Military Affairs, Robert Cooper, and over an official lunch with the 27 EU Member State Ambassadors to the Political and Security Committee. Giannella is the EU Council's point person for all non-proliferation issues, while Cooper focuses on Iran, among other pol-mil issues. Ambassadors are also preoccupied with the Iran issue, especially with the approach of UNGA and in the wake of the Iranian political crisis. EU Foreign Ministers are scheduled to take up Iran during an informal ministerial on September 4-5 in Stockholm. WE EXPECT A RESPONSE TO OUR OFFER ¶3. (C) U/S Tauscher told all her interlocutors that Iran has until September 24, between the start of UNGA and the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, to respond to the U.S. and P5 1 offers to negotiate on the nuclear program. She said she was optimistic that Iran would respond, but argued that the U.S. and EU need to stick together and increase the pressure on Iran with "significant sanctions" that prove the international community's mettle if Iran continues to delay or stonewall. She stressed that the U.S. and EU cannot allow the Iranian government to use the political crisis as an excuse not to respond, since Iran has been adding centrifuges even during the crisis. Tauscher noted that the process of negotiation will be slow and deliberate, but that we have to use our leverage now to show Iran that our offer to begin that process does not stand indefinitely. GIANNELLA: WE NEED A UNSCR ¶4. (C) Annalisa Giannella agreed with U/S Tauscher's points, but said she is not optimistic for an Iranian response by September 24. If Iran continues to stall, she argued, the international community should consider not just economic sanctions, but political sanctions as well. She noted that it will not be easy for the G-20 to agree as a group on a way forward, especially since Iran is likely to take some last-minute action that casts Tehran in a positive light. She also noted that there are parts of the recent IAEA report that are less critical of Iran, which some countries will point to in order to avoid taking further punitive action. If Iran does not respond, Giannella said BRUSSELS 00001270 002.4 OF 003 the EU would be more likely to adopt autonomous sanctions if the UN Security Council passes a sanctions resolution. Ideally, she said, the UNSCR would include all the necessary designations. Even if the UNSCR is incomplete, however, it would provide the EU with a point of departure. Autonomous EU sanctions would be very difficult to initiate without the cover of a UNSCR of any kind, she said. COOPER: OPTIMISTIC IN THE LONG RUN ¶5. (C) Robert Cooper, like Giannella, said he is not optimistic in the short term. However, he said the international community may have more time than we are willing to acknowledge publicly. The EU's nuclear expert has run some projections for Iranian weaponization capability, he said. Taking a median set of assumptions, the expert predicts that Iran already has enough enriched uranium for one bomb if further enriched to weapons grade, and will be able to enrich enough uranium for one additional bomb per year in each of the next few years. Cooper stressed that the issue is not only one of enrichment capability, however, but of the decision to weaponize -- a decision he said would not come easily. India, he said, waited years before weaponizing its nuclear material. The West should not panic, therefore, and should not show signs of panic. Following this line of reasoning, Cooper said the West must be ready to increase the pressure on Iran, but should think along a longer timeline than Israel does. It will be critical to convince Russia of the severity of the issue, he said, both to support strong sanctions and in negotiations. ¶6. (C) Cooper said the Obama administration's approach to the Iran issue has been "masterly." With the Prague speech, followed by the Cairo speech, and backed by our full com which ¶7. (C) oations. She said me to recognize the fQ WE NEED TO TAKE THE QCommittee (PSC) Ambassadors, Danish Ambassador Lars Faaborg-Andersen said EU foreign ministers would discuss Iran on September 4 at their informal ministerial. The possibility of a non-response from Iran means the West will have to consider the "crippling sanctions" the Secretary referred to, he noted, asking U/S Tauscher for her appraisal of the prospects for progress. UK Ambassador Tim Barrow asked whether "Moscow is starting to get it," and specifically whether the START negotiations had helped Russia recognize the problem of a nuclear Iran. Romanian Ambassador Viorel Ardeleanu said the U.S. and EU will need to be unified in opposing the Iranian proposal during the next IAEA Board of Governors. ¶9. (C) U/S Tauscher responded that instead of asking ourselves what Iran will do next, we need to ask ourselves what we should do next. She argued that the international community needs to take the initiative, rather than ceding it to Iran and adopting a reactive posture. She said the U.S. recognizes the importance to the EU of a UNSCR with BRUSSELS 00001270 003.2 OF 003 additional sanctions, and reiterated that the Iranian political crisis is not an excuse for a non-response. On Russia, she said the United States has made clear to Moscow our opposition to the sale of S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran, but noted that we could use the EU's help in reiterating the point to the Russians. ¶10. (U) Under Secretary Tauscher has cleared this cable. MURRAY .