EXPECT NEGATIVE RHETORIC ON CLIMATE CHANGE TO CONTINUE FROM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001231 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EIND ENRG EUN EWWT KGHG SENV TPHY TRGY TSPL SUBJECT: EXPECT NEGATIVE RHETORIC ON CLIMATE CHANGE TO CONTINUE FROM EU MEMBER STATES ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Despite efforts to stem unhelpful comments, we can expect certain EU Member States will continue to call for the United States to "do more" on climate change in the run-up to Copenhagen. Recent statements targeting the United States, notably from the Swedish Presidency, Germany, and France, among others, are driven by several factors, including domestic posturing, efforts to place blame in case of Copenhagen failure, and "buyer's remorse" stemming from the climate and energy legislative package passed last December. There is a lack of comprehension how such comments can be considered counterproductive, especially as political changes in Australia and Japan have yielded stronger emissions targets, situations in which the EU is quick to claim some of the credit. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) During a meeting with an advisor to Commission President Barroso, USEU EconOffs learned that EU Member State focus on the United States and mid-term emissions targets will likely continue, and with that, continued negative rhetoric and pressure for the United States to "do more." Nevertheless, he agreed that such comments are counterproductive to efforts to come to agreement in Copenhagen. However, citing domestic considerations such as the upcoming elections in Germany and pressure from the Greens and industry, he said it will be very difficult to sway certain politicians. Additionally, several Member States are suffering "buyer's remorse" following the passage of the climate and energy legislative package. They want the United States to pass a similarly ambitious bill. ¶3. (SBU) Aside from domestic political realities, there is a lack of comprehension in Europe as to why such comments are counterproductive. In a meeting with the UK Permanent Representation, both Australia and Japan, who recently increased their midterm emissions goals after political changes, were cited as successful examples of European pressure. From the EU viewpoint, it follows logically that the same pressure will yield positive results in the United States. Arguments that negative comments simply allow China and India to stand back while the United States and the EU continue to disagree are met with opposition; several EU counterparts contend that if the United States were to do more, then China and India would follow. Officials at the Swedish Permanent �00A;Representation said that the rest of the world is watching the United States, so EU pressure should remain focused on U.S. efforts. However, a British diplomat remarked that the U.S. should be flattered by the attention and its ability to drive the process. ¶4. (SBU) Separately, Barroso's advisor and British officials discussed the Commission proposal to the Council and Parliament on climate finance. Barroso's advisor pointed out that the document included "toughening" of the language regarding conditionality in EU funding. The EU is looking to strengthen its position that any funding from the EU will require actions from developing countries towards agreed climate goals. Additionally, while the proposal presented a likely order of magnitude of global funding needed, 100 billion euros per year in 2020, that level is dependent on ambitious targets from both developed and developing countries. Accepting weaker targets will cost more in the long run, increasing financial requirements. While the British officials said that the Pittsburgh Summit is very important in terms of timing, Barroso's advisor tried to temper expectations, noting that France and Germany, and to a lesser extent, Poland, are likely to slow the internal EU process into October, making it difficult for the EU to bring much to Pittsburgh in September. Reportedly, several Member States want to announce their own financial targets, independent of EU funding, and believe that those will have more impact if made ahead of an EU announcement. There has been limited immediate reaction from Member States to the proposal, though Barroso's advisor explained that the proposal was written with viewpoints of several large Member States in mind, with the hope that it will be more likely accepted in comparable form by Heads of State at the October European Council. ¶5. (SBU) Comment. While meetings with Member State officials in Brussels have shown that there is little interest among some Member States in changing the rhetoric towards the United States, the Commission appears to have shifted to a more conciliatory tone. Led by President Barroso, who seems to be taking a much stronger position on climate and energy, the Commission has worked to keep comments strictly on a bilateral level and out of public forums. Barroso's advisor stressed the importance of the MEF to "grind the process forward" to complement the work in the UNFCCC. In that regard, the Commission appears interested in acting as a key U.S. interlocutor, one which will focus on the need to pull in China and BRUSSELS 00001231 002 OF 002 India. According to a well-placed industry representative, the Commission and/or the UK may be best placed to drive the conversation in Europe, given better understanding of the U.S. domestic realities. The Commission can complement our diplomatic efforts in capitals with its influence with Member States. End comment. MURRAY