USEU SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY LEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BRUSSELS 001202

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL EAID EUN AF PK IK
SUBJECT: USEU SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY LEW


1. (SBU) You are visiting Brussels at an ideal
time to discuss Afghanistan and Pakistan with the
EU. Already a major contributor of development
and humanitarian assistance, the EU is in the
midst of writing a new Af/Pak strategy paper for
release in October. Although European public
opinion is skeptical of efforts in Afghanistan,
the Swedish EU Presidency is committed to this
project, which EU foreign ministers will discuss
in the days before your arrival. The EUQs
commitment to Afghanistan and Pakistan includes
billions of dollars in aid, a police training
program in Afghanistan, and increasing political
and economic engagement with Pakistan. Your
interlocutors should be keen to discuss the
emerging EU strategy, as well as to look for areas
for concrete U.S.-EU cooperation, such as in the
field of police training, particularly as the EU-
U.S. summit approaches. Europeans need to
appreciate better what is at stake for them in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. On Iraq, the EU has
been more forthcoming in looking for ways to
coordinate or partner with us since the change of
administration, expanding and starting to do in-
country judicial training, undertaking
negotiations on a partnership agreement, and
continuing to support refugee return; however,
they are less enthusiastically involved than in
Afghanistan/Pakistan.

A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR IN AFGHANISTAN
--------------


2. (SBU) The European Commission (EC) is a large
donor to Afghanistan and is one of the few that
provides a multi-year commitment. This is on top
of the support that individual EU member states
provide to Afghanistan. The EC provided
approximately 1.3 billion euros in assistance for
the period 2002-2006, overshooting its pledged 1
billion euros. For 2007-2010, the EC pledged 610
million (e.g. approximately 150 million/year).
This figure still holds in EU planning, although
there will likely be additional funding from the
European CommissionQs Humanitarian Aid Office
(ECHO) and other areas of the Commission that
could bring the total figure closer to 750 million
euros. The Commission is committed to assistance
to Afghanistan through at least 2013, and External
Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner told
the press earlier this year that the current
financial crisis will not deter the CommissionQs
commitment to Afghanistan. The ECQs funding
target for the entire 2007-2013 period is at least
1.3 billion euros. The ECQs assistance strategy
reflects the priorities laid out in the
Afghanistan Compact and the Afghan National
Development Strategy. EC assistance for 2008-2010
focuses on three areas: reform of the justice
sector; rural development, including alternatives
to poppy production; and public health. About 10
percent of EC funding goes to non-focus areas,
such as de-mining, regional cooperation, and
support to vulnerable groups. We have coordinated
with the EC to encourage regional economic
cooperation, including working together to craft
the agenda for a successful Regional Economic
Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan in Islamabad
last May.

STRONG SUPPORT TO AFGHAN ELECTIONS
--------------

3.(SBU) Responding directly to VP BidenQs request
in March, the EC provided considerable support to
the August 20 presidential and provincial
elections. The EC pledged 35 million euros to the
UNQs fund for electoral support and launched a
120-person election observation mission headed by
former French general Philippe Morillon. Days
after the election, Morillon commented to the
press that the election had been fair, but not
entirely free due to violence preventing some
voters from reaching the polls. Both EU Council
and EC officials will be keen to discuss post-
election Afghanistan with you.

4.(SBU) Sweden, which leads the EU as president
until the end of the year, has been energetic in

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coordinating contributions from EU member states
and will shepherd a paper on EU strategies for
post-election engagement. Swedish Foreign
Minister Bildt told NATO, and EC Commissioner
Ferrero-Waldner told the Secretary in July that
the EUQs Af/Pak strategy would probably be adopted
in October, after discussion at the informal
foreign ministersQ meeting (Gymnich) on September
4-

5. While foreign ministers will not officially
take decisions during the Gymnich, they will start
to shape discussions in Brussels leading up to
formal adoption at the October ministerial. You
may want to ask about the Gymnich discussion
during your visit to Brussels.

LOOKING TO EXPAND POLICE TRAINING EFFORTS
--------------

5.(SBU) In 2007, EU member states launched an EU
police training mission in Afghanistan (EUPOL).
After some initial difficulties, the mission is
gaining strength and new commander Kai Vittrup is
winning praise in Kabul and Brussels. The EUPOL
mission currently numbers about 265 police
trainers, with an eventual target of 400. The
mission was initially focused on civil policing
tasks in Kabul, but as the mission has grown, it
has pushed more trainers out to the provinces.
EUPOL officers are currently present in 14 PRTs,
and EUPOL is seeking to increase its presence in
the U.S.-administered Regional Command-East. To
do this, the EU is asking for a technical
agreement with the United States, which would have
the U.S. provide housing, medical care, logistics,
and Q most importantly Q in extremis life-
protection support to EU civilian police at our
PRTs. Your interlocutors may want to discuss the
possibility of negotiating an agreement with the
USG, as the EU has done with most other non-EU
countries leading PRTs in Afghanistan. We have
sought guidance from Washington on whether there
could be such an agreement.

INCREASING OUTREACH TO PAKISTAN
--------------

6.(SBU) The EU recognizes the need for additional
focus on and support to Pakistan. The first EU-
Pakistan summit took place in Brussels on June 17
and initiated a strategic dialogue on development,
education, science and technology, security,
counter-terrorism, democracy, human rights and
trade. The joint summit statement said the EU and
Pakistan would work towards further liberalization
of trade, and that the EU would continue to help
Pakistan meet the EUQs sanitary and phyto-sanitary
requirements for fishery and other products. The
parties also agreed to undertake a counter-
terrorism dialogue, notably in the field of law
enforcement and criminal justice, and to consult
regularly on arms control, disarmament and
nonproliferation issues.

7.(SBU) The Commission has allocated 200 million
euros to Pakistan in its program for the period
2007-2010, focused on poverty reduction, as well
as education and human resources development, in
particular in the North-West Frontier Province and
Baluchistan. At the April Tokyo donors
conference, the EC pledged 485 million euros
between 2009 and 2013. EU member states and the
EC together pledged around $1.8 billion of the $5
billion in total pledged at the conference. In
the wake of the Pakistani military offensive in
the Swat Valley, the EC also increased its
humanitarian aid to Pakistan from 7 million euros
to 72 million. While visiting Brussels in late
July, SRAP Holbrooke urged EU leaders to consider
a further increase in humanitarian aid, as well as
support to the Pakistani electricity sector, ideas
EU officials may want to discuss with you. The EU
will probably be open to specific proposals for
increased aid to Pakistan, given their growing
engagement.

KEEPING THE EU ENGAGED IN IRAQ
--------------


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8.(SBU) In contrast to Afghanistan and Pakistan,
overall EC donor support to Iraq has been
decreasing since 2007, with the allocation for
2009-2010 reaching only 65.8 million euros.
Although the EU has been more willing to listen to
requests for Iraqi IDP and refugee support since
President Obama took office, they remain skeptical
about the reported numbers of displaced Iraqis in
the region and claims about their needs. On
returns-related initiatives, however, the
Commission is more supportive, and is moving from
single-year assistance programs to a multi-year
strategy focused on creating a favorable
environment for refugee and IDP returns. In the
2009-2010 program, 20 million euros will go to
good governance and rule of law; technical
assistance to the Independent High Commissioner
for Human Rights; modernization of the legal
education system; implementation of a new NGO law;
and the creation of an NGO network. The other
43.8 million euros for 2009-2010 are allocated to
the provision of basic health, education, and
migration/displacement services. Additional
support on migration and displacement issues
includes a 20 million euro package of humanitarian
aid from ECHO.

9.(SBU) While we still expect your interlocutors
to be reluctant to provide major new contributions
for refugees outside of Iraq, we want to encourage
European donors to join us in providing critical
assistance to ensure that returning Iraqis
successfully reintegrate into former communities
or settle in new communities. Early success will
demonstrate to Iraqi refugees in the region that
return and national reconciliation are possible.

10.(SBU) The EU Council is increasing its
activities to reform the Iraqi judicial sector and
may look for opportunities to partner with us.
Since its launch in 2005, the EUQs Integrated Rule
of Law Mission for Iraq (EUJUST LEX) has provided
training to senior Iraqi criminal justice
officials. The mission has held over 100 training
courses and trained over 2,700 Iraqi officials.
Until this summer, all training activities had
been held outside Iraq, but in July, the EU kicked
off several in-country pilot programs, which could
provide the basis for expanded activities in Iraq.
As the EU considers further action inside Iraq,
your interlocutors may be interested in discussing
partnership opportunities. In addition to refugee
and rule of law programs, the EU is IraqQs second
largest trading partner and is in the process of
negotiating a Trade and Cooperation Agreement,
which may be concluded by the end of 2009.

RESOURCES
--------------

11.(SBU) The U.S. Mission to the EU (USEU) is one
of our largest policy and reporting missions
abroad. USEU comprises eight agencies that convey
USG positions and report on EU-wide developments
as they affect U.S. interests, especially in
economic, foreign policy, and justice related
areas. USEUQs 70 American and 35 European staff
follow EU activities as they evolve in the two
dozen Directorates-General of the EU Commission;
in parallel structures of the EU Council, which
comprises the 27 member state embassies in
Brussels; and in the still modestly-empowered
European Parliament.

12.(SBU) USEUQs substantive priorities are led by
Afghanistan, followed by energy security and
climate change, dealing with Russia, Middle East
peace, the Doha Trade Round, the Transatlantic
Economic Council, and personal data protection.
Justice and law enforcement activities, including
counterterrorism, are moving up the agenda.
Present levels of staffing and facilities are
right for now, and for the foreseeable future.
The complexity of EU institutions and procedures
tends to inhibit U.S. officialsQ understanding of
what the EU can and cannot accomplish. And, as
such, the EUQs complexity can operate either to
our benefit or to our detriment. We benefit when
the EUQs consensus requirements forestall radical

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positions or decisions with which we disagree, but
consensus as well as complex procedures can impede
the EU from taking strong, positive action when
called for.

MURRAY