FLEMISH AND FRANCOPHONE LIBERAL PARTIES VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000107 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL BE SUBJECT: FLEMISH AND FRANCOPHONE LIBERAL PARTIES VIEWS ON LINGUISTIC DIVIDE IN BELGIUM Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Richard Eason, reason 1.4(b ) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: During her January 14 visit to Brussels, EUR/WE Director Pamela Spratlen met with representatives of the francophone and the Flemish liberal parties. She spoke with Koert Debeuf, Director of the Flemish Open VLD's Liberal Studies Center and Corentin de Salle, Counselor at the francophone Mouvement Reformateur (MR) think tank, the Jean Gol Institute. Debeuf and de Salle described the complex functioning of the Belgian body politic, at the center of which is the question of how to manage Belgium's bitter linguistic dispute between Flanders and Wallonia, with Brussels stuck in the middle. Their parties are middle of the road European liberal in outlook, and they share confidence in free markets, reduced taxation and regulation and the need to rein in generous social benefits. End Summary. A COMPLEX GOVERNMENT THAT REQUIRES COMPROMISES -------------- - ¶2. (C) In his meeting with Spratlen, Debeuf focused much of the discussion on Belgium's constant search for a workable compromise on every political issue, which he paradoxically sees as both a weakness and a strength of the system. In the difficult search for compromise, he said, Belgium's political parties and their leadership are most important. Compromises are frequently worked out in the "kern (nucleus) cabinet", comprised of the Prime Minister and key ministers representing the governing parties. The compromises are made in the context of a small federal budget, because significant amounts of money are parceled out to the regions and communities. Parliaments are weak, Debeuf said, because the rank and file members are ordered to follow the "ugly compromises" worked out in the kern cabinet and do so to avoid a return to negotiations. The qualities of the Prime Minister in such a system are also important. He must be strong in order to force compromises and create an image as a uniter of different factions. This requires both a certain attitude and realism in order to reach across party lines, Debeuf said. LETERME'S WEAKNESSES -------------- ¶3. (C) In his opinion, PM Leterme failed because he promised too much, including rapid institutional reforms, and failed to deliver. He said that Leterme, a Fleming who knows French well, had a good profile as a "Belgian" and was serious. But with his CD&V party in partnership at that time with the NVA, a strongly nationalist group, it was difficult for the francophone parties to trust him. It was difficult to create an atmosphere for the necessary compromises. Debeuf said that he had expected Leterme's government to fall at the time of the regional elections in June 2009. Now that it has fallen in December, he expects the current government to last until 2011, as the parties are forced to work together to deal with the economic crisis. It would be "criminal" to have premature elections at this time, he said. He also observed that the crisis has not yet hit the average Belgian, although it will soon begin to bite, he predicted. Politicians will have to be more serious at that point, he said. LIBERAL ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY -------------- ¶4. (C) Debeuf said that the began his political career as a member of the CD&V, the Flemish Christian Democrat party. He said that the Christian Democrats originate from a nineteenth century concept of politics that gathered unions, entrepreneurs and farmers into one conservative party. This grouping now makes compromise and decisions within the party difficult, and Debeuf found it lacking in a "point of view". He said that he turned to the VLD because although its liberal economic ideas may be considered radical, at least it offers a vision for the future. Its strongest constituents are entrepreneurs and the party is strongest in cities in East Flanders, in Ghent and on the East side of Brussels. By contrast, he said, the Christian Democrats are stronger in rural areas including West Flanders and Limburg. Debeuf said that although all the Belgian parties tend toward the left end of the scale in Europe, the Open VLD's views on the economy are classic free-market, including cutting red tape that hamstrings businesses. It advocates confronting the economic crisis with temporary tax relief to spur individual investment rather than big government infrastructure programs. He pointed out that when veteran Open VLD politician Guy Verhofstadt was in power, he combined tax cuts BRUSSELS 00000107 002 OF 003 with a balanced government budget, and growth in Belgium was among the highest in Europe. The party opposes protectionism and subsidies for agriculture. At the same time the party's views on ethical issues are progressive, he said, as it supports same-sex marriage and euthanasia. The party welcomes immigrants, but believes that once in Belgium they must find work. It would prefer an immigration regime based on skills and talents, such as exists in Canada. It favors a social security system that motivates people to work and gets them out of unemployment. ¶5. (C) Debeuf said that the Open VLD supports the more active approach Belgium has taken toward Afghanistan. The party also agreed with the government's efforts to reinforce MONUC in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. MONUC, he said, is a disaster and Belgium's engagement is natural given its colonial history. Aside from that "little disagreement over the war in Iraq," Debeuf said, the Open VLD's attitude toward the United States is basically positive -- especially among the more libertarian wing of the party. However, he cautioned, despite the United State's high profile in the media, most people in Belgium do not know much about it, and they don't take positions on issues based on what the United States favors or disfavors. Still, he concluded, the recent presidential campaign was the best advertisement for the United States. ¶6. (C) Asked about the Flemish socialist party (the Sp.A), Debeuf said the party, which is now outside the federal coalition government, is finding it hard to be a tough opposition when their francophone socialist colleagues are in the coalition. He criticized their plan to increase unemployment benefits as a means of boosting consumption and stimulating the economy, saying it is too expensive. However, he said that populism is rising in Belgium, as well as in the Netherlands and Germany, defining that term as "promising things that please the voters but aren't realistic." ¶7. (C) Handicapping the June 2009 regional elections, Debeuf predicted that the Lijst Dedecker would gather 15 percent of the vote, far-right Vlaams Belang another 15 percent and smaller parties 5 percent. But these outsider parties could never form a government, so the traditional parties (the CD&V, the Sp.A and the Open VLD would most likely again be in power. ¶8. (C) Looking farther into the future, Debeuf said that he expects the regions will gain more and more autonomy. Flanders has been seeking more autonomy since the 1880's and the devolution of powers to the regions is a "never-ending story." At the same time, he said, Belgium will not disappear. Debeuf deems this a good thing because even though the nation's existence is not easy it brings the three regions together and forces compromise. If Belgium fails, he wondered, how can the European Union hope to work? But the biggest reason for continued national unity (albeit in a more and more federal way) is Brussels. You can't have an independent Flanders without Brussels, he said, because "Brussels is our oil" -- i.e. the source of Flanders' wealth. BRUSSELS AS THE GLUE THAT HOLDS BELGIUM TOGETHER -------------- --- ¶9. (C) Interestingly, Corentin De Salle, from the MR think tank, later said that if forced to speculate on what an independent Wallonia would look like, it would be the francophone region plus Brussels. (Comment: that one contradiction points up the role that Brussels plays in keeping the country together, since no side could agree to part with it.) De Salle agreed with Debeuf about Brussels as a source of Belgium's wealth. However, he notedthat although Brussels produces more wealth than any city in Europe other than London, many eople are poor. He blames their poverty on te failure of the Belgian system to integrae and stimulate the immigrant population. AN ECONOMIC SOLUTION TO AN ECONOMIC PROBLEM -------------- ¶10. (C) De Salle also agreed with Debeuf that the Belgian system is dismayingly complicated. He noted that if China had the same proportion of federal and regional government ministers to its population as Belgium, it would have 20,000 of them. De Salle prefers to view the regional divide in Belgium from an economic perspective. He said that during the industrial revolution, it was Wallonia that created Belgium's wealth. After World War I, however, Wallonia's economic strength declined while Flanders' increased as its trading and commercial skills gave it the advantage. With a BRUSSELS 00000107 003 OF 003 generous social security system and a larger portion of its population unemployed and disadvantaged, Wallonia receives more benefits from the federal government than Flanders and has long been ruled by the francophone Socialists. As De Salle put it, every Flemish family gives every Walloon couple the equivalent of a Mercedes every three years. It is a question of fairness, he said. The problem is not cultural or linguistic, he said, but economic. As a result, it has an economic solution through growth and development of the Walloon economy, in the eyes of the liberal MR. ¶11. (C) De Salle was not hesitant to blame the Socialist Party (PS) for Wallonia's ills and the "too generous" social security system, with its lifetime unemployment benefits, that the PS has constructed in Belgium and Wallonia. The MR outpolled the Socialists for the first time in 2007, but it can't propose time-limited unemployment payments without being labeled as fascist, De Salle said with regret. He also was strongly critical of the educational system in Wallonia. He noted that according to the OECD PISA tests Wallonia students perform at a very low level, while Flemish students are at the top of the list. Therefore the MR program promotes improvement of educational standards and development of technical training that fits the needs of employers. The universities are producing too many unemployed persons, he observed. The rest of the MR program shares many common features with that of the Open VLD in Flanders, and De Salle said that there is a strong relationship between the two parties. ¶12. (C) De Salle lamented that many people in Belgium do not understand the causes of the current economic crisis. The calls for a Keynesian stimulus to the economy from the government do not take into account that it was Keynesian policies that created the crisis, in his opinion. He worries that the MR has lost support as a result of the crisis because many Belgians see the MR as the party of capitalism. (Note: Didier Reynders, the MR party's head, has served as the federal Finance Minister for the past nine years.) De Salle said it is too early to predict the outcome of the June 2009 elections, however, because things can change in five months. In any event, he doesn't see the Socialists taking advantage of the MR's temporary weakness, but rather the Christian Democrats (in Wallonia, known as the CDH). ¶13. (C) Comment: The Belgian political system is intricate and requires myriad compromises to balance regional and linguistic differences. De Salle takes a more simplistic view of the central political problem, the tug-of-war between Flanders and Wallonia. However, both he and Debeuf, and their political parties, share a belief in free-market solutions to Belgium's economic problems and a conviction that the country is not likely to split in two in the near future. BUSH .