BELGIAN MP TO PROPOSE LAW BANNING NUCLEAR WEAPONS

S E C R E T BRUSSELS 001044 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RPM, ISN/WMDT:TLOWE AND PM SECDEF FOR OSD/EUR:AWINTERNITZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2019 TAGS: MNUC MARR PREL BE SUBJECT: BELGIAN MP TO PROPOSE LAW BANNING NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM BELGIAN SOIL Classified By: Acting Political Economic Counselor Robert Kiene, reason 1.4 (b) and (f). (C) Summary: A Belgian francophone Socialist Member of the House of Representatives, Philippe Mahoux, has announced that he will introduce a bill in the Belgian House banning all nuclear weapons from the territory of Belgium when Parliament reconvenes in September. Similar bills and resolutions have been proposed in the past and have failed to gain significant support in Parliament. Mahoux's bill is not expected to result in legislation, but it will likely spark a public debate about the desirability of nuclear weapons. The Belgian government prefers not to approach the issue of disarmament unilaterally but in the context of NATO, the NPT and bilateral discussions between Russia and the United States. End summary. (S) The exact text of Mahoux's proposed bill is not yet prepared, but it will likely prohibit the manufacture, repair, display, sale, transport and storage on Belgian territory of nuclear arms. The language is similar to existing Belgian law that prohibits chemical weapons, anti-personnel mines, cluster weapons and depleted uranium weapons. Previous efforts by Mahoux and other pacifist members of Parliament to pass legislation or resolutions on nuclear weapons have disappeared quietly without receiving a floor vote. This legislation is most likely to meet the same fate. NATO, the U.S. and Belgium do not confirm or deny the presence of nuclear weapons at the Belgian air base in Kleine Brogel in Eastern Belgium. Mahoux's bill is clearly intended at a minimum to influence Belgian policy regarding activities at that base and disarmament generally at a time when international discussions on nuclear disarmament are beginning to gain steam. Mahoux announced his intentions just as the slow vacation period is beginning in Belgium. He is both trying to get a jump on his fellow legislators on the issue and to take advantage of a slow time in the news cycle. One Japanese newspaper noticed Mahoux's announcement and seized on it as a perceived bellwether of more forceful international efforts toward disarmament. (U) Mahoux received a quick public response from Armand De Decker, President of the Belgian Senate. Although he speculated that there are no arms at Kleine Brogel, he stated that nuclear arms are essential to the defense of Europe. He pointed most directly at the risks of a potentially nuclear armed Pakistan. De Decker sees no reason for Belgium to renounce a nuclear mission when for sixty years the country has been solidly behind all NATO missions, including the nuclear mission. He was also content that France has a nuclear force adequate to deter an attack not only against France but Belgium, and would not object to nuclear arms on Belgian soil as a complement to that defense. "The goal being, in time, to create an integrated European army." (C) Poloff discussed the Mahoux initiative with Vincent Mertens De Wilmars, Diplomatic Advisor to Minister of Defense De Crem and with the MFA's Director for Security Policy, Pol De Witte. Both officials are convinced that Mahoux's individual initiative will never become law. However, they do expect it to become a topic of discussion and debate in the fall. Mertens said that "the government will be ready to meet it" and will find ways to ensure it becomes bogged down in procedures and ultimately fails. Mertens also said that an information note on upcoming disarmament issues in the EU, the NPT review and bilateral Russian-American dialogue. The main reason the GOB opposes the Mahoux bill is that it does not want Belgium to take unilateral steps but rather to approach disarmament in coordination with the international community, and make decisions in common, in the various international fora where discussions are taking place. De Witte fully agreed with Mertens view that Mahoux's bill has no future and that the GOB believes it is not right to approach disarmament issues unilaterally. However, he expects the government to have to respond publicly to Mahoux's initiative, and to take a more cautious than direct approach to opposing it, given widespread sympathy for Mahoux's views. The government may seek various amendments to buy time until it can find a way to quietly dispose of the bill. (S) If international debate on disarmament is more active in the fall, Mahoux's bill may in that context spark more interest and comment, although not to the extent that it would gain a serious chance of passage. The USG and the Belgian MOD are just beginning a discussion of procedures for dealing with nuclear weapon accidents and incidents. These discussions are as low key as possible with due regard for the sensitivity of the subject matter. Given the early stage of these discussions, it is probable that the debate on Mahoux's bill will have been over for quite some time before they are close to a conclusion. BUSH / .