Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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09BRIDGETOWN774 | 2009-12-02 12:59:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Bridgetown |
VZCZCXYZ0000 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHWN #0774/01 3361300 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 021259Z DEC 09 FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0048 INFO RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN |
UNCLAS BRIDGETOWN 000774 |
1. (SBU) Vincentians voted convincingly November 25 to reject a constitutional referendum that would have significantly changed St. Vincent's structure of governance. The surprisingly sharp 56-44 percent defeat set Prime Minister Gonsalves on his heels and dashed his plans to follow the referendum with early elections to extend his mandate in office. Instead, the referendum has reinvigorated the previously moribund Opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), whose leader, Arnhim Eustace, called for early general elections given the lack of confidence expressed by the voters in the Prime Minister's leadership. The Organization for American States (OAS) sent a fifteen-member observer team throughout the country's fifteen constituencies, and found the referendum to be handled freely and fairly. The governing United Labor Party, which had rallied intensely for the passing of the bill, was palpably surprised by the result, prompting Gonsalves to rail against opposition "scare mongers" who he said poisoned voter opinion on the matter. In rejecting the proposed changes, Vincentian voters highlighted a popular uneasiness to changes whose impact was unpredictable and, possibly, a growing wariness of Prime Minister Gonsalves' ties with Venezuela and Iran and his desire to weaken traditional ties with the British monarchy. End Summary. -------------------------- A VOTE MIRED IN POLITICS -------------------------- 2. (SBU) St. Vincent and the Grenadines' November 25 constitutional referendum, which culminated six years of parliamentary and political discussion and debate, had been touted heavily by PM Gonsalves as a necessary document to "complete" independence from the British monarchy and move the country forward democratically (see reftels). During the run up to the referendum, however, the reform process became increasingly politicized, with many Vincentians coming to view the draft constitution as a pet project of Gonsalves' and his United Labor Party (ULP). Although the constitution bill was passed by parliamentary majority in the Vincentian General Assembly in September, the debate that ensued followed partisan political lines, and became in the end more an issue of whether or not voters sided with PM Gonsalves and his administration's policies. Gonsalves himself admitted privately that the referendum was as much an indicator of confidence in him and his government as it was about constitutional issues, and optimistically planned to call early elections had he garnered at least 55 percent of the vote. 3. (SBU) The referendum voting itself closely resembled a general election, with political party representatives observing at each polling station and Gonsalves himself reportedly glad-handing voters in various constituencies. Occasionally, electoral officials had to clarify for voters that they were voting for or against (via a "yes" or "no" vote) the constitution bill and not Gonsalves or NDP leader Arnhim Eustace, or NDP supporter and still-influential former PM Sir James Mitchell. Following the final vote tally, which resulted in roughly 56 percent against and 44 percent in favor of the new constitution, local commentators agreed that popular support for the ULP had waned, and that Gonsalves himself could find the next general election difficult to win. In his post-referendum address, Gonsalves asserted that the referendum and outcome had become politicized, suggesting publicly that the voters were comprised largely of NDP supporters and others who "succumbed to scare mongering." Eustace said separately that the results showed that the population was against "poor governance," and rejected the current government's policies and programs. -------------------------- ELECTORAL PROFESSIONALISM -------------------------- 4. (U) The electoral process itself was deemed to be generally free and fair and void of any serious irregularities or abnormalities by the fifteen-member OAS electoral observation mission, in which an Embassy Poloff participated. The mission's members were present in all fifteen constituencies, and were joined by a smattering of local non-governmental organization (NGO), CARICOM, and Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) observers. All OAS mission members agreed that Vincentian electoral officials handled the day's procedures professionally and legally, and that the entire process was sufficiently transparent. The voters themselves were found to be well-versed in their roles and well prepared, as order was maintained throughout the day. Voter turnout was high, at about 54 percent, with over 50,000 total votes cast despite heavy rains during the day. The OAS mission itself was well-received, with a number of voters telling Poloff that its presence was reassuring and welcome. -------------------------- COMMENT -------------------------- 5. (SBU) Given the partisan politics that dominated the referendum, its outcome was an obvious blow to Gonsalves and the ULP. While Gonsalves knew that the 66.7% threshold to pass the constitution bill was a long shot, he was convinced he would garner a majority and had high hopes of winning at least 55-58 percent. Gonsalves blamed the opposition for polarizing the debate, but Gonsalves himself had turned to blatant electioneering to boost the "yes" vote by rolling out over USD 11 million in cash benefits to students, seniors, government workers, and others a month before the vote. Gonsalves' failure to turn out his own base suggests that he is vulnerable and may not survive the next electoral cycle. Ironically, the only change resulting from Gonsalves' now dashed constitutional reforms has been a complete reversal of political fortunes for the opposition NDP. The opposition had been left for dead by political observers, but has been revived by the referendum and will begin to press its advantage by calling for early elections. 6. (SBU) The reluctance of Vincentian voters to embrace changes to existing governing structures will have ripple effects elsewhere in the region, where efforts to adopt the Caribbean Court of Justice, replace the Queen as Head of State, and alter "first-past-the-post" electoral systems will now be quietly shelved. While Gonsalves' ties with Venezuela and Iran may not have been directly at issue in this vote, it is likely that his close ties to these countries, combined with his aggressive comments about St. Vincent's ties to traditional allies (he blasted the UK repeatedly for genocide in his Independence Day address), made votes uneasy about the PM's intentions and the longer term impact of the proposed changes to the status quo. HARDT |