PM PONDERS ELECTIONS AFTER FAILED REDISTRICTING BID

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000741 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/04 TAGS: PGOV PINR ST XL SUBJECT: PM PONDERS ELECTIONS AFTER FAILED REDISTRICTING BID CLASSIFIED BY: D. Brent Hardt, Charge d'Affairs a.i.; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) With no date yet set for St. Kitts and Nevis General elections, the constitutional deadline of March, 2010 is looming Larger, leaving the government with ever-more restricted room to maneuver. After an apparent opposition legal victory stemming from accusations of gerrymandering by the ruling party, the government has indicated that it may appeal the ruling or repeat the redistricting exercise prior to the March date. Meanwhile, rising crime and an explosion of gun violence is giving a boost to the often weak and ineffective opposition, which is also banking on incumbent fatigue among Kittitian voters. With pundits predicting a potential dead heat on St. Kitts, the parties from the island of Nevis are almost certain to play a significant role in picking the next government. End summary. -------------- Waffling on Election Date -------------- ¶2. (C) St. Kitts and Nevis Prime Minister Denzil Douglas told us in November that a date for the upcoming elections would have to wait until after all the court proceedings concerning the election boundaries redistricting dispute between the St. Kitts and Nevis Labour Party (SKNLP) and the opposition People's Action Movement (PAM) had played out. The high court's recent decision against the government's initial boundary changes has further restricted PM Douglas' room to maneuver, though he appears determined to make another push on border changes. Attorney General Dennis Merchant indicated that he believed elections would be called in January and would be held sometime in February. -------------- Crime is THE Issue of the Campaign -------------- ¶3. (C) Skyrocketing crime rates, particularly violent crime, is a serious concern for all Kittitians, as St. Kitts now has the second highest per capita murder rate in the world. Crime is indisputably the issue that will determine to outcome of the upcoming elections, according to both ruling party and opposition contacts. The opposition PAM has made fighting crime and addressing youth violence the centerpiece of its party platform. The daily drumbeat from the party's social media website is almost solely devoted to pointing out the government's failure to address the issue and highlighting PAM's plan to bring law and order back to the island. PAM has also highlighted the fact of St. Kitts and Nevis world leading per capita murder and gun violence rates, and has laid the blame squarely at the feet of the SKNLP and PM Douglas. For its part, the SKNLP has sought to highlight its efforts to combat crime, often blaming the issue on external factors beyond their control, such as criminal deportees from the U.S. and the UK. They also blame the rise in gun violence on gun smugglers and the ease with which individuals can illegally ship guns from the United States. -------------- Pre-Elections Violence on the Rise -------------- ¶4. (C) According to PAM contacts, armed intruders broke into the home of PAM candidate Bernard Welsh on October 17 and terrorized his family. In a speech following the event, PAM leader Grant contended that the assault was the direct result of his party's strong anti-crime platform. Grant also claims that PAM candidate Eugene Hamilton suffered injuries when a group of individuals targeted the PAM platform of speakers when they were assembled for a rally. There have been no reports of specific election-related violence in the official media. However, according to local lawyer Charles Wilkins, who represents many of the largest land owners on the island, there is a real chance for election violence as the elections drawn near. -------------- Opposition Wins Key Redistricting Court Case -------------- ¶5. (C) In July, the ruling SKNLP passed a parliamentary ruling changing the election boundaries in several key districts, including the district of PAM leader Lindsay Grant. The Harvard-educated Grant contends that the move was a deliberate attempt to move PAM voters out and SKNLP voters into his district. The Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court recently found in favor of the PAM, ruling that the procedures used in drawing up the constituency boundaries were invalid and therefore null and void. The PAM argue that this was a victory for democracy in the face of the SKNLP's attempt to steal the upcoming election. "They know that they can't beat the PAM in the upcoming election, not with their record on crime over the past 10 years, so they had to resort to schemes like changing the election boundaries in order to win," PAM party leader Lindsay Grant complained. ¶6. (C) The SKNLP, meanwhile, has taken a decidedly more positive spin on the rejection of its redistricting plan by the courts. PM Douglas noted that the court ruled that the SKNLP had not acted improperly, as the opposition had claimed, simply that procedurally the boundaries changes were invalid. According to Douglas, the court found no cause in the PAM's assertions that the SKNLP attempted to gerrymander the constituency boundaries. While not yet certain if they will appeal the high court ruling, Douglas explained that the best course of action may be to restart the boundaries redistricting process again prior to the elections. -------------- Nevis Party Likely to Play King Maker -------------- ¶7. (C) The parties from Nevis, The Nevis Reform Party (NRP) and the Concerned Citizens Movement (CCM),hold 3 of the 11 elected seats in parliament, which is linked to the number of electoral districts on Nevis. Both sides admit that this election is likely to be closer than the last election, which means that if the PAM can secure 3 seats in the upcoming election then the parties from Nevis will determine the winning coalition in Parliament. With the two parties from St. Kitts fighting it out over 8 seats there is a real chance that the elections could lead to a divided government. When this occurred in the 1993 elections the Nevis parties refused to form a coalition government, which lead to civil unrest in the two island federation. Alluding to this concern, CCM party leader Vance Amory, told us that the CCM would likely caucus with the PAM if they can secure enough seats to form a coalition. Amory believes the people of SKN are ready to for a change and said it was time for Douglas to give someone else a chance to run the country. -------------- Tourism push is centerpiece of ruling party -------------- ¶8. (C) The government has placed high hopes on its tourism-centered development plan and is hoping that tangible returns in the form of increased local employment opportunities will carry them to victory. Government-sponsored signs proclaiming, "Tourism -- It's Working" abound across the island. According to Tourism Minister Ricky Skerrit, the government's tourism push has led to a significant increase in employment within the sector, which is translating into broad support for the SKNLP among the electorate. -------------- No Dual Nationals Allowed to Run -------------- ¶9. (C) The Parliament passed legislation November 5, requiring that all candidates swear that they are qualified under Sections 27 and 28 of the Constitution of St. Kitts and Nevis to run for legislative office. Sections 27 and 28 under the constitution stipulate that members of the national legislature may not hold the nationality of or allegiances to any other country. The SKNLP is concerned that several members of the PAM have retained their U.S. nationality, which would disqualify them from running for office. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) The SKNLP appeared to be the clear favorite in early 2009. Since then, however, the PAM's campaign to blame the government for the stratospheric rise in crime has started to pay dividends. SKNLP party members, including Finance Minster Harris and Attorney General Dennis Merchant, admit to us privately that the party has a real fight on its hands this time. The last election saw the SKNLP take 7 of the 8 seats coming from electoral districts in St. Kitts, but few expect a landslide of this proportion coming out of the upcoming elections. This time around, the SKNLP will be lucky to lose only one or two more seats, and may lose more if recent trends in the region in favor of opposition parties holds sway in St. Kitts. HARDT