LEADING ST. VINCENT'S OPPOSITION -- WHAT'S SECOND

UNCLAS BRIDGETOWN 000500 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL XL SUBJECT: LEADING ST. VINCENT'S OPPOSITION -- WHAT'S SECOND PRIZE? -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Jonathan Peters, the former Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) Ambassador to the UN and Minister of Trade under Sir James Mitchell, met with poloffs to discuss his plans to run for opposition leader in St. Vincent. This was his third trip to the Embassy in less than a year, to ask for financial assistance and assail the politics of the current government of Ralph Gonsalves -- an indication of the continuing woeful state of a fractured and penniless opposition in St. Vincent. -------------- Race for Opposition Leader -------------- ¶2. (C) Peters officially entered the ring to become the next leader of the opposition New Democratic Party to replace Arnhim Eustace. Peters claimed that Eustace has been ineffective as leader and that the NDP needs change into order to challenge Gonsalves. Peters claimed to have the backing of Sir James Mitchell, the ex-PM who still holds considerable sway in the country, and under whom he served as UN Ambassador and Trade Minister. Peters said there was also a possibility of a 'Compton Scenario' bringing Mitchell back as NDP leader, akin to the return to power of elder statesman and ex-PM Sam Compton in St. Lucia. According to Peters, Gonsalves is following the advice of Venezuelan President Chavez and intends to be a President for life. The ordering of Electronic Voting Machines from a company associated with Chavez is causing worry that the vote could be rigged in the upcoming election. Plans for redistricting to weaken the opposition are moving forward, Peters said, and voter rolls are not as accurate as one would hope. ¶3. (C) Peters again sought financial assistance from the USG, noting "it is expensive to run a political campaign in the Caribbean" and decrying the funding gap between the opposition and the government, which he said continues to take money from Taiwan, Venezuela and Iran. Peters claimed that the nature of local politics forces a level of corruption due to the low wages paid to public servants, and the way that the populace expects direct handouts and assistance from candidates themselves. The government is often unable to build structural assistance programs at an institutional level, as the size of the islands tends to allow for personal contact between constituents and politicians to drive decisions. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) Peters' most recent visit continued to highlight the difficulty of running against the establishment, especially when it is backed by Venezuelan, Iranian, and/or Chinese sponsors. Peters repeated the refrain that the current government is a lackey of the Chavez plot to take over the Western Hemisphere or an Iranian plot to take over the world, but more as a means to encourage our financial backing than any cogent political analysis. This refrain, though, obscures the more banal reality that most leaders in small island states simply aren't very discriminating about accepting financial assistance. Any leader that replaces Gonsalves would likely do the same thing, or risk being blamed for leaving money on the table and not doing enough to help his people -- to say nothing of ensuring a continuation of his party in government. GOGGIN