ST. KITTS AND NEVIS OPPOSITION LEADERS ANTICIPATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000417 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL XL SUBJECT: ST. KITTS AND NEVIS OPPOSITION LEADERS ANTICIPATE ELECTIONS SOON Classified By: CDA D.Brent Hardt, Reason 1.4(b) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Opposition leaders from the People's Action Movement (PAM) on St. Kitts are renouncing their U.S. citizenship in anticipation of possible elections in July. Using the out of control crime wave and the government's lack of action as corner stone of a PAM campaign, leaders are confident they can wrestle control away from the ruling St. Kitts and Nevis Labor Party (SKLP). Even if the PAM is able to win 4 or 5 seats on St. Kitts, they will be forced to ally themselves with one of the parties from Nevis to obtain the necessary 6 seats needed to form a government. Meanwhile, the fudging of constituency boundaries by the SKLP and the Boundaries Commission threatens to drag any election results into the court system. -------------- PAM LEADERS RENOUNCING U.S. CITIZENSHIP, PREPARING FOR ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) Lindsay Grant, leader of the opposition People's Action Movement (PAM) in St. Kitts stopped by the Embassy on June 29 to renounce his U.S. citizenship ahead of possible elections in St. Kitts and Nevis. The constitution of St. Kitts and Nevis prohibits members of the parliament and government from swearing allegiance to other nations. Grant informed Poloff that Shawn Richards, the only member of the PAM currently serving in parliament, will renounce his U.S. citizenship shortly for the same reason. Grant expects the ruling St. Kitts and Nevis Labor Party, with its weakening polling numbers, will swing into action this Friday, July 4th, and call elections for a July 23rd election day. Recent radio announcements by the SKLP state there will be an historic announcement on July 4th, and the SKLP has a large rally planned for that evening at the cricket stadium. Grant is confident the PAM can win a majority of the eight seats up for grabs on St. Kitts, citing polling numbers the PAM commissioned from a U.S.-based polling firm that has PAM taking five seats. He noted that, with the economy slipping deeper into recession and elections due by the end of 2009, the SKLP thinks their polling numbers will only get worse in future months, so the time is now for the SKLP to call elections. -------------- CRIME IS THE MAJOR ISSUE -------------- ¶3. (C) Grant outlined the PAM strategy against the SKLP with its corner stone being the out of control crime wave in St. Kitts and Nevis. Crime levels, specifically the murder rate, have risen to alarming levels in recent years, placing St. Kitts and Nevis number 2 in the world in murders per capita. The PAM routinely criticizes the government for its laissez faire attitude and lack of action toward the problem. Grant went as far as to call a recent Regional Conference on Youth Crime and Violence in St. Kitts (reported septel) a "political charade" to give the illusion the government is addressing the issue. Any PAM campaign will highlight crime and the SKLP's inability to deal with it, and Grant said his party has concrete ideas for addressing at-risk youth issues, including using institutions like the boy scouts and girl guides as compulsory membership organizations to instill structure and discipline into the lives of the country's youth. ¶4. (C) Issue number two, he said, would be reviving the economy, which has seen increased unemployment keeping pace with decreased tourist arrivals, and with the government staggering under a crippling debt burden - he estimated 90 cents on every dollar goes to some sort of debt servicing, leaving the government with only 10 percent of its revenues to address crime, education, health, and other social services. Official corruption, he said, was unlikely to be a big campaign issue, even though he said corruption in the government was "obvious," citing the PM's accumulation of an estimated $14 million in property since taking office. -------------- GERRYMANDERING OF CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES -------------- ¶5. (C) Complaining of unfair "gerrymandering" of the election districts by the Boundaries Commission, Grant believes the boundaries will be manipulated to increase the chances of an SKNLP win. Grant said the Boundaries Commission will submit their final resolution to the Parliament on July 4, and then the Prime Minister will dissolve the parliament and call elections, putting the resolution into effect for this election with little time to dispute or discuss it. Grant nevertheless stated that any meddling in the existing boundaries will be challenged by the PAM immediately, since he says the Commission will not have followed legal procedure, which requires at least six months advance notice of findings, in making its recommendations. ¶6. (C) Grant admitted that local courts would be unlikely to hear the PAM's challenge in time for the elections, but said the party would have grounds to challenge the outcome if elections are held utilizing any newly-drawn constituency boundaries and PAM does not secure a majority. Grant also noted that voter rolls and out-of-constituency voting remains a serious problem, but said that particular "fraud" has now been institutionalized in the voting process and so he sees little that can be done about it. He also said diaspora wwere likely to play a large role in the outcome, as has traditionally been the case, but noted that the government's decision not to hold elections during a U.S. holiday - a first, he said - and recession impacts might reduce the number of diaspora voters who travel to St. Kitts this year. -------------- NEVIS PARTIES PLAY KINGMAKER -------------- ¶7. (C) In St. Kitts and Nevis politics, there are eight parliamentary seats on St. Kitts where the two major parties are the SKLP and the PAM. The island of Nevis maintains three seats where the two major parties the Concerned Citizens Movement (CCM) and the Nevis Reform Party (NRP). Because of the peculiarly federal nature of the St. Kitts-Nevis political structure, the parties do not cross the narrows between the islands and compete against each other. In order to gain control of the federal government, though, a party must win 6 of 11 seats. According to Grant, if the PAM wins 5 seats as predicted, he will have to reach out to either the NRP or the CCM in order to form a coalition government (or, at a minimum, secure support out of coalition for a minority government). Grant believes both the NRP and the CCM will come down on their side of any closely contested election but admits the PAM does not have an established relationship with either party on Nevis. ¶8. (C) Grant's nightmare scenario, he said, is one in which the seats are evenly split on St. Kitts and the Nevis parties refuse to back either group - this could lead to a crisis in government, as there would not be enough support in parliament to form even a minority government. Grant said he sees that scenario as unlikely but not impossible, since the Nevis parties do not concentrate much on federal-level elections, taking their own Nevis elections much more seriously (Nevisians, he said, see the federal government as a necessary evil at best). What makes the scenario unlikely, though, he noted, was that such a situation had come about before, in 1993, and the result was several days of civil unrest and lawlessness. He said politicians on both islands would have a strong desire to avoid that possibility - especially in an economic slump and high levels of crime and gang activity. HARDT