ANTIGUA'S RULING PARTY UNDER PRESSURE FROM COURT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000358 E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2029 TAGS: PGOV PINR CN XL SUBJECT: ANTIGUA'S RULING PARTY UNDER PRESSURE FROM COURT BATTLES AND INTERNAL DISSENSION Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. D. Brent Hardt, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In the three months since the election that saw the United Progressive Party (UPP) returned to power in Antigua, the government has found itself under pressure from legal challenges to election results from opposition Antigua Labor Party (ALP) and internal party infighting. The Antiguan courts have agreed to hear cases for five constituencies, which are expected to last until November. The UPP was dealt anther blow when Deputy Prime Minister Wilmoth Daniel publicly broke with PM Spencer and asked to be relieved of his duties as Deputy. This instability has many concerned that the government could fall, leading to either new elections or the formation of a new government coalition that could bring the ALP to power. The Government, however, has its own ace in the hole in the form of an inquiry about corruption during the ALP,s years in power whose damaging report could soon be made public. End Summary. -------------- UPP Victory Challenged In Court -------------- ¶2. (C) Antigua and Barbuda's March 12 election ended with the United Progressive Party (UPP) winning a slim majority, taking 9 of the 17 seats. The narrow victory was marred by problems at polling stations on the day of election that led many stations to open late. The opposition Antigua Labour Party (ALP) has filed legal complaints covering five of the 17 constituencies, alleging that their late opening, ranging from two to six hours, disenfranchised voters. Attorney General Justin Simon explained to PolOff in a recent meeting that the government has retained legal counsel from Trinidad and expects to begin its defense in court in June. The exact date of the hearings has yet to be determined, however the AG does not expect a verdict to be reached before sometime in November. ¶3. (C) ALP MP Robin Yearwood recently told PolOff that the ALP had decided to challenge five of the elections on legal grounds; however, he believes that only two of the cases have real merit. In those two cases the margin of victory was low and the voter turnout was significantly below the turnout for the previous election. Many political observers have told us that the ALP has a less than fifty percent chance of winning 
any of the cases, but if they were to win it would be in only one or two of the districts where the court might rule that voter disenfranchisement changed the election outcome. If this were to happen, explained several contacts including AG Simon, Prime Minister Spencer would likely call national elections because he would not allow the ALP to cherry pick, constituencies for reelection. -------------- UPP Defections -------------- ¶4. (C) In mid-May, UPP Deputy PM and Health Minister Wilmoth Daniel sent a letter to the Prime Minister asking to be relieved of his position as the Deputy PM. His letter of resignation outlined a series of disagreements between himself and the PM and stated that he could no longer serve as his deputy. The principal disagreement had to do with Daniel,s desire to move his ministry to new quarters at a higher lease cost. When questions were raised about the move, Spencer failed to support Daniel. As a result of this, Daniel told PolOff that he and PM Spencer were no longer speaking outside of their official functions. The PM, Daniel reiterated, had failed to support him when he came under attack from opposition forces and refused his counsel on several issues under his purview. He claimed that this situation has prevailed for some time, and that while he had tolerated it previously, the direction of the country has led him to change his position. (Note: Daniel won his seat by the largest majority of any of the candidates in the previous election, winning by an almost 2 to 1 margin and is extremely popular in his own district. End note.) ¶5. (C) According to Daniel, there is a "kitchen cabinet" around the PM, most of whom are not elected, who make all of the real decisions in Antigua. He claimed that the PM is very close to the Venezuelans, the Chinese and the Iranians -- the latter two through his close ties to the Shoul family on the island. The Shouls are a wealthy family of Lebanese descent who are closely connected to the PM and the UPP. The PM has decided it is in Antigua,s interest to play in the world of superpower politics, Daniel lamented. -------------- Growing Indebtedness to the Chinese -------------- ¶6. (C) He shared his concern about the sheer volume of projects purported to be funded by the Chinese over the next few years, which will put his heavily indebted nation millions of dollars further in debt. He said the Chinese are building an expansion of the international airport, a new power plant, and have just completed a feasibility study to redo the port. The PRC recently completed a new hospital, which is the largest in the Eastern Caribbean, and a new cricket stadium, which combined reportedly cost well over US$200 million. These projects are reportedly financed largely though low interest loans and will be constructed with imported Chinese labor. The PM has been selling these projects with the promise that the Chinese may forgive much of this debt in the future, Daniel noted. -------------- The Fallout From a Daniel Defection -------------- ¶7. (C) The Independent Barbuda People's Movement (BPM) MP Trevor Walker explained to PolOff in a recent meeting that Daniel is constitutionally barred from leaving the UPP to join the ALP. However, if he were to resign his cabinet position he could inform the Governor General that he intends to leave the UPP and sit as an independent. Were this to happen, Walker explained, he would personally feel compelled to support his "long-time friend" and leave the government. (Note: Walker formed a coalition government with the UPP and is the Minister of Public Works.) Moreover, he conjectured that it would only be a matter of time before others from the UPP defected from the PM and perhaps formed a third party, which could then form a new coalition government with the ALP. -------------- ALP Corruption Remains Achilles Heel -------------- ¶8. (C) The problem with this scenario, however, is that the government holds its own ace in the form of a soon to be completed inquiry into major high-level corruption during the many years of Lester Bird,s leadership. The government is in possession of a potentially very damaging report, which the UK High Commission passed to the Embassy, that would undermine the ALP,s credibility as an alternative to the current government. -------------- Chinese Concerns about Antigua "Stability" -------------- ¶9. (C) The PRC,s Ambassador to Antigua and Barbuda Chen Ligang asked PolOff at a recent dinner hosted by a local real estate developer for his opinion on the "political instability" in Antigua. Chen explained that his government was concerned that the UPP will fall given the large number of projects that they have running on the island. Chen said he was unaware that some of the proposed projects were controversial on the island, and insisted that China was only trying to help on projects at the request of the Antiguan government. When asked how much money his country had involved in projects on the island he said he was not aware of the exact amount, but estimated that it would be hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars after all of the recently announced projects are completed. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Antigua's political power structure is divided by the thinnest of margins. A one seat swing in the last election would have left the two parties tied, which is why so many have taken the announcement by Minister Daniel seriously. Given his close relationship with Walker and the potential for one (or both) of them to covet the Prime Minister's chair, it is possible that Daniel could bring the government down. The outcome of the court cases could make this move unnecessary -- though this is unlikely. China's apparent consternation over the raucous nature of Antigua's political system is understandable given that they have a significant amount of money invested in their relationship with UPP and that the ALP has pledged publicly to reevaluate Antigua's cozy relationship with China. Personal self-interest tends to win out in the local political calculus, however, which could in the end keep all the UPP stars in their current orbit to keep the UPP in power. HARDT