EU/USA/UNDP MEET WITH MINISTER IN CHARGE OF ELECTIONS:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRAZZAVILLE 000080

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CF
SUBJECT: EU/USA/UNDP MEET WITH MINISTER IN CHARGE OF ELECTIONS:
STATE OF PREPARATIONS

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On March 17, at the initiative of the
European Union, the EU (commission and presidency (Belgium) plus
the resident chiefs of mission of France and Italy),the UNDP
resrep/resident coordinator, and the U.S. Ambassador met with
Minister of Territorial Administration Raymond Mboulou and a
large team including the National Elections Commission (CONEL)
head and the Director General of Electoral Affairs (DGAE) from
the Ministry. The meeting was an opportunity to pose questions
in a semi-public format to those who are charged with organizing
the July 5 Presidential elections. Though they project
confidence about the technical details of the process, there are
significant political, technical, and timing hurdles ahead if
Congo is to have a relatively successful election this year.
This cable is both a report of the meeting and a discussion of
the technical state of preparations. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) BACKGROUND: The role of external donors in Congo's
presidential election this year is yet to be determined, but is
likely to be very small. In mid-December, the U.N. organized a
headquarters mission to assess and propose a possible U.N.
program of assistance, resulting in a proposal estimated to cost
$2.5 million to provide four technical advisors and material
support for the election period, largely devoted to advising the
DGAE and CONEL and training and supplying Congolese NGOs
interested in participating in civic education and verification.
However, according to UNDP, the proposal is not yet funded. We
understand that a proposal by the European Commission office
here for EU funding for a similar effort was not immediately
approved and was somewhat controversial in Brussels; current
indications from the EU commission office here are that Brussels
is considering a contribution of 500,000 Euro to the
UNDP-managed "basket." We are not aware of any other bilateral
funding under consideration at this time, and with the election
(July 5) just 100 days away, it is doubtful that funds could be
programmed responsibly.


3. (SBU) Under the terms of the Cotonou Agreement, the EU
conducts a periodic political dialogue with the Congo
government, and in that context, during a session on March 6,
the commission, the presidency, and the other member states
represented here (only/only Belgium, France, and Italy) obtained
Congolese agreement to a follow-up session on the subject of the
preparations for the July Presidential election. They invited
UNDP, as the prospective manager of the only external support
forthcoming for the election, and the United States, to
participate. The meeting, held on March 17, brought together
the aforementioned foreign representatives with a large number
of Congolese officials, including Minister Mboulou, the
President of the National Elections Commission, and the Director
General for Electoral Affairs of the Ministry of Territorial
Administration.


4. (SBU) STATE OF PLAY ON ORGANIZING THE ELECTIONS: The
heavyweight on the Congo government side is the Ministry of
Territorial Administration, whose mandate, funding, and
personnel far outweigh the very much less effective National
Elections Commission (CONEL). In fact, it is our assessment
that CONEL is very much a marginal player. Its mandate seems to
be limited to a supervisory role on the actual day of polling,
with all other matters, including voter identification and
registration, manning the polling stations, and vote counting
largely in the hands of the Ministry. It would not be an
exaggeration to say that CONEL seems very much to be an
appendage added to the process as a result of the National
Conference, with very little authority or funding actually
exercised. The government attempts to present an image of CONEL
as an inclusive and independent electoral commission, as
required under various international agreements, but it is not.
It is chaired by a government nominee (a judge),with a first
vice president from the "presidential majority" (apparently
specified this way by the national conference),a second vice
president from "the opposition" (which the government believes
is the opposition represented in the national legislative
bodies),and a third vice president from "civil society."
However, in each case of the three vice presidents, the actual
appointment to CONEL is made by President Sassou-Nguesso,
choosing from a list of three offered to him by the constituency
represented. Furthermore, in the case of at least two of the
most viable opposition candidates for this year's election,
their parties are not represented at all in the national
legislative bodies.


5. (SBU) POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: There are now roughly eight

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candidates announced for the July election (and this does not
include President Denis Sassou-Nguesso, who has not announced
despite daily press-conferenced appeals to him to do so by
various unknown parties and miniscule organizations). We will
be providing a more detailed look at the candidates in the
coming weeks, but in this message, suffice to say that none of
them enjoys national backing nor, indeed, adequate financial
support to conduct a national campaign. There is one grouping
of parties, the "Opposition Headquarters," that has spoken out
on organizational issues. In a meeting in February, eighteen
parties came together to offer comments and resolutions
regarding the process. Notably, they urged the government to
call together the "presidential majority" and the opposition to
agree to a structure for organizing the elections, and offered
thirteen suggestions for what ought to be included in such a
structure, including (a) repealing the existing election law;
(b) adopting a new law setting up an independent electoral
commission; (c) dissolving CONEL; (d) annulling the results of
the December-January revision of voters lists; (e) conducting a
special administrative census (instead of using the revised
voter lists); (f) assuring equal access to public media for all
candidates; (g) respecting free movement of politicians; (h)
assuring freedom of the press; (i) financing for political
parties; (i) permitting the return of political self-exiles; (j)
publication of the 2007 general census; and (k) opening of an
official internet site on the elections. They also accused the
government of padding the voter lists with 500,000 extra voters
during the ongoing revision exercise. The "Opposition
Headquarters" did not offer any program for the future or new
ideas, aside from the procedural steps listed above.


6. (SBU) With the opposition taking at least preliminary steps
toward adopting a common procedural program, the question of the
"concertation" between the government side and the opposition
has been much-commented-upon in the press, both before and since
the meeting of the "Opposition Headquarters." Most recently,
the "Prime Minister," Isidore Mvoua, made a statement falling
short of a firm commitment from the government side, indicating
that such a process would take place. However, no time or venue
has been proposed, and more importantly Sassou-Nguesso has not
been heard to endorse the launching of such a
politically-fraught exercise. Every day that passes renders it
less likely that any of the suggestions made by the opposition,
some which have merit if there to be a reasonably well-conducted
election here, could be put into effect.


7. (SBU) MEETING THE MINISTER: The meeting March 17 was
largely devoted to a series of technical questions posed by the
foreign participants and responses from the Congolese. In their
extremely detailed responses, the Congolese said that the next
stage in the process, which will occur within a few days, will
be the posting of the revised electoral lists at each polling
station. There will be a two-week period during which members
of the public or representatives of the putative candidates can
bring errors and omissions (dead/underage/fictitious voters,
absence from the lists, for example) to the attention of the
responsible officials. They noted that election management had
been (underline) completely/completely decentralized since the
2008 legislative elections. Thus correcting the lists was a
question for the departmental-level officials who are in charge
under decentralization. (COMMENT: Apparently there are 6,000
polling stations, so any national effort to verify the lists (by
one or more opposition parties) during a two-week period would
be a massive and expensive undertaking. End comment.)


8. (SBU) The Minister also detailed the local organization of
the polling stations as a mirror of the organization of CONEL,
with a presiding officer "representing the State" and assisted
by representatives of the presidential formation, the
opposition, and civil society, in addition to several other
officials with designated functions who will be on hand as well.
He said that after a given polling station closes at 6 p.m.,
vote counting will begin immediately and will be open to
representatives of candidates at the polling station level.
Results will be posted at the polling station when completed and
forwarded to the department-level elections committee to be
consolidated into a report to CONEL. He noted that UNDP has
already provided computer hardware, software, and training to
each of the department level election committees.


9. (SBU) Addressing another political question, the resignation
of the "second vice president" (i.e. from the opposition) from
CONEL, the Minister washed his hands of it by saying that he had

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discussed the need for a slate of three names with the leader of
the opposition formation in the National Assembly and could do
no more until the three names were put forward. He noted that
the largest opposition party, the UPADS, has three factions,
each of which will probably present a candidate, and two of the
factions are represented in the Assembly.


10. (SBU) The UNDP resrep made a strong statement in support of
the "concertation" between ruling group and opposition and noted
that UNDP had been designated by donor countries to assure
coordination of external support. The Minister responded that
the door was open, but on the government side he emphasized
firmly that it was Prime Minister Mvouba who was in charge. He
also noted that the central financial authorities had made
available one-quarter of the envisaged political party funding
for the Presidential election, which would be allocated in
accordance with the criteria established in the electoral law,
perhaps in about a month. The minister emphasized as well that
the election would be held on July 5. This was necessary, he
said, because the President's term expires on August 14 (also
Congo's national day),and there is a mandatory time delay
established by law between the publication of the results and
the inauguration of the elected President.


11. (SBU) Wrapping up, the EU representative made a pitch for
the concertation to include the adoption of a code of good
conduct by the competing parties in the runup to the election.
The Minister acknowledged that he had received a draft of such
an agreement provided by the EU's experts and that this
document, along with an actual example from Benin, was under
review. He made no commitment regarding the code of conduct.
He then tweaked the Americans for not having made any
commitments to support the elections (though, in the absence of
any funding, we have done some low- or no-cost work with NGOs)
and asked whether, in light of the American experience in
absentee/advance voting, we thought it would be a good idea to
have the security forces (army, police, gendarmes) vote in
advance of the general population so that they would be able to
give their full attention to security on July 5. The Ambassador
said that in the U.S., the military's votes were considered in
terms of their duties as citizens. He cautioned the Minister to
look at the political impact of having those under military
discipline be ordered to vote on a particular day, and on a day
when civilian citizens did not have the opportunity themselves
to vote, lest it be regarded as an effort to maximize turnout by
a group of Congolese who might have a particular vote in mind.
(Comment: This was a lead balloon for the Minister - he does
not like to have his ideas called into question, and was clearly
looking for a ringing endorsement. End comment.) The minister
concluded with a surprise announcement that the government had
decided to drop the fees for the issuance of national identity
cards and that he would be going to the press later in the day
to ask all citizens to obtain their free cards to facilitate
their participation in the Presidential election.


12. (SBU) COMMENT: Taken at face value, the comments of these
Congolese officials portray a sincere desire to have a decent
election. But stripping away all the official reasons why
something is being done a particular way or why it can't be done
another way, it is clear that so far, the organizers of the
election are proceeding in their own way without any
accommodation of the views of the outside-government political
class. None of the concerns of the opposition have been
addressed, and there is so far no dialogue under way between the
presidential "majority" and the opposition. It is thus
overwhelmingly clear that the government, beholden to those in
power, holds all the cards in this election and does not intend
to shuffle them.


13. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: The impending presidential
election has also introduced an element of unease and
apprehension about security into the body politic here, given
that Congolese history shows a correlation between elections and
violence, particularly in 1997. We are hearing of many
Brazzaville residents, both Congolese and foreign, who are
scheduling their annual leave for late June-July, not because
they necessarily expect unrest but because of this history, and
many dependents of European diplomatic missions have been
quietly encouraged to take a break during the campaign period
and the weeks after the election. END COMMENT.
EASTHAM