DAS QUANRUD IN SLOVAKIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000497 SIPDIS DEPT FOR S/CEE FOR AMB MORNINGSTAR, EUR/CE FOR J. MOORE AND M. LIBBY, PRM FOR E. TOURE E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG LO SUBJECT: DAS QUANRUD IN SLOVAKIA REF: Bratislava 490 BRATISLAVA 00000497 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Keith A. Eddins, CDA. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a 29-hour visit to Bratislava, EUR DAS Pamela Quanrud met with a variety of senior Slovak government officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Robert Kalinak and FM Miroslav Lajcak, as well as opposition leaders and members of the judiciary, civil society, and news media to discuss our priority issues. Key topics discussed were Slovak commitments to Afghanistan, energy security, minority rights, governance, the business environment in Slovakia, and refugees. Lajcak and Kalinak reaffirmed Slovakia's commitment to plus-up its ISAF contributions by 2011. Lajcak and others explained how Slovakia is better prepared this winter should there be another natural gas cut-off. Lajcak pledged to continue working to reduce tensions with Hungary arising from the controversial amendment to the Slovak language law. Kalinak expressed openness to the idea of a third party review of judicial issues, and a willingness to resettle more Cuban political refugees from Guantanamo. Lajcak's support for the U.S. position on Iran was reported in reftel. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Afghanistan: Quanrud pressed for more details on Slovak-promised increases in support to Afghanistan in meetings at Ministry of Defense, MFA, and Ministry of Interior. Her Slovak interlocutors confirmed that support to ISAF is their top priority and that the recent announcements of additional deployments to bring the total troop count in Afghanistan from about 250 to over 400 were real and that plans are in the works. Exact numbers and timelines have yet to be worked out, but FM Lajcak told her the full increase would be in place by the end of 2011, with three-quarters of the increase accomplished in ¶2010. Minister of Interior Kalinak indicated that Slovakia would provide special forces among these deployments, but said they would be used primarily for force protection. Quanrud urged him to consider giving the SOF troops the latitude to engage in training of Afghan forces, which might also involve participation in offensive operations. Kalinak also said he was -- in his capacity as Minister of Interior -- prepared to send civilian police trainers as well; he suggested that he could send two police trainers fairly quickly, then work up to six or more. Kalinak and Lajcak both agreed that the current caveats need to be, and will be, lifted. While Kalinak offered to try to get an announcement by the December ISAF Force Generation Conference, Lajcak said that the topics of caveats and offensive engagements in Afghanistan could not be broached publicly until after the June 2010 Slovak elections. ¶3. (C) Energy Security: Quanrud raised energy security in the FM Lajcak meeting as well as in meetings with MinEcon DG for Energy Jan Petrovic and MFA DG for Economic Cooperation Radomir Bohac. Petrovic outlined the extensive work the GoS has done since the January 2009 gas crisis: full storage facilities going into the winter, legal requirements for gas suppliers to keep more extensive reserves, technical modifications to connections with the Czech Republic and Austria to allow rapid conversion to reverse flow, and contingency contracts with Western suppliers. All in all, these measures leave Slovakia in a much better position than last year to deal with a complete cutoff; Petrovic described it as "the best supply situation he has seen" in his long career at the ministry. That said, none of her interlocutors felt confident predicting whether a cutoff would occur. As Lajcak put it, "We have valid contracts with the Russians, yet we are completely vulnerable." Lajcak also noted that in Prime Minister Fico's November 16 meeting with Russian PM Putin, Fico had aggressively asserted to Putin that it was Russia's responsibility to deliver on its contracts. For his side, Putin had painted a pessimistic scenario in which Russia would once again be "forced" to cut off natural gas deliveries to Ukraine if the Ukrainians were unable to pay their bills in a timely manner in early 2010. ¶4. (C) Minority Rights: Quanrud discussed the controversial amendment to the State language law with Lajcak, stressing the need for moderate rhetoric to counter nationalists on both sides of the Danube. Lajcak said that the GoS was working much better with the Hungarian government, though the (outsized) Hungarian reaction to what he views as a normal language law reflects an old position of Hungary's: to try to establish itself as an international rapporteur on minority rights in Slovakia. He said the Slovak position on this is clear: Hungary (as opposed to ethnic Hungarian Slovaks) cannot have a role in the Slovak legislative process. Lajcak voiced concern about the likelihood of an April 2010 Fidesz government in Budapest, which will resort to nationalism whenever it falters in its domestic agenda. Quanrud raised U.S. concerns about Roma in her meeting with Kalinak. Kalinak said that his ministry has grown his BRATISLAVA 00000497 002.2 OF 002 in-house "Roma experts" division from 17 officers to 280 during his tenure, but that he sees a continuing problem with crime rates among Roma. ¶5. (C) Governance: In her meeting with Kalinak, Quanrud expressed concern about the recent politicization and apparent loss of independence of the Slovak judiciary. Kalinak acknowledged that this has become a problem, but said the government cannot do much about it, citing the deliberate separation of Executive and Judicial branches. He also said that the problems go back to old feuds in the judiciary dating back to the Meciar years. (Comment: This interpretation of the protests on the part of over 100 judges is something we have heard before; it appears to be an attempt to minimize the problem by portraying it as a mostly political squabble.) Quanrud suggested that some international fact-finding and evaluation might give the GoS the leverage it needs for reform and Kalinak promised that he would consider such a review. ¶6. (C) Business Environment: In her meetings at the MFA and with Kalinak, Quanrud pressed the case for ensuring that Slovakia's business environment, and the judicial system in particular, supports new investment as the economic crisis winds down. Lajcak confirmed that he is hearing this concern from foreign investors and reiterated his commitment to act if he is presented with specifics. He added that this problem would be much smaller if Smer can change coalition partners after the next election. ¶7. (C) Refugees: In the Kalinak meeting, he expressed a willingness to consider accepting more Cuban refugees and saw no conflict between such an action and Slovakia's plans to accept three Guantanamo detainees. He encouraged the U.S. to go ahead with a request. Kalinak also expressed a desire to do more for the Palestinian refugees from northern Iraq that are currently being processed in Slovakia. This extends to better serving the refugees currently in Slovakia, as well as possibly accepting more. ¶8. (C) Media Freedom: In a wide-ranging discussion with media and NGO representatives, Quanrud heard their concerns about pressure they are feeling from the Slovak government. While acknowledging that no censorship (or worse) was taking place in Slovakia, most expressed worry that the combination of the 2008 Slovak right-to-reply law and the widespread use of libel suits left the press in a vulnerable position. ¶9. (C) Opposition Plans: At a lunch with senior officials from three of the four largest opposition parties, Quanrud heard lots of complaints about the policies of the Fico government, focused largely on lack of economic development, job losses, and corruption. But when Quanrud pressed them on how they intended to persuade Slovak voters to support the opposition's emerging pro-growth, anti-corruption agenda, none of them was able to offer any concrete plans for waging an effective 2010 campaign. They also discussed the impact that the April 2010 Hungarian elections are likely to have on the subsequent June Slovak elections; all three agreed that while PM Fico is currently seeking to distance himself from the nationalist SNS party of Jan Slota, the SNS could draw increased strength in reaction to the anticipate strong showing by Fidesz in Hungary. ¶10. (C) Embassy Comment: Quanrud's well-timed visit offered us the opportunity to convey Washington's latest thinking on Afghanistan and Iran to senior levels of the Slovak government. Equally important, Quanrud -- speaking as a friend and ally -- conveyed U.S. concerns about the deteriorating situation in the Slovak judiciary, which has the long-term potential to harm Slovakia's reputation and credibility, particularly among foreign investors. EDDINS