SLOVAKIA PAINTED RED: FICO'S SMER STEAMROLLS OPPOSITION IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000484 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE J. MOORE AND M. LIBBY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM LO SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA PAINTED RED: FICO'S SMER STEAMROLLS OPPOSITION IN REGIONAL ELECTIONS REF: Bratislava 476 BRATISLAVA 00000484 001.3 OF 002 ¶1. Summary: The 2009 regional elections were a smashing victory for PM Robert Fico's ruling party, SMER ("Direction"). In four of the eight regions, SMER-supported regional governor or "zupan" candidates won over 50 percent of the vote and do not require a run-off; in the remaining four regions, the second round will take place on November 28. Of the 408 regional parliamentarians elected, 175 were from SMER-HzDS (Party of the Movement for a Democracy) coalitions. Voter turn-out was 22.9 percent, nearly 3 percent higher than the turnout in 2005. End Summary. SMER Doubles Its Regional Parliamentarians ¶2. In the 2005 elections, SMER won 70 regional parliament seats. This year, SMER nearly doubled that number, winning 135 seats. PM Fico said this election demonstrated that SMER is the "stable, politically dominant party of Slovakia." In the zupan races, SMER's candidates in Kosice (Zdenko Trebula),Zilina (Juraj Blanar),Nitra (Milan Belica),and Trnava (Tibor Mikus) won outright in the first round. SMER candidates in Trencin (Pavol Sedlacek),Banska Bystrica (Vladimir Manka),and Presov (Peter Chudik) are heavily favored for the second round. Bratislava the Last Bastion of the Center-Right ¶3. The opposition Social Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU) -- Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) coalition has two candidates who advanced to the second round in Banska Bystrica (Jozef Mikus) and Bratislava (Pavol Freso). However, only Freso is favored to win, which would make him the only non-SMER zupan. Bratislava is also the only region where the SDKU-KDH coalition won a majority in the regional parliament (26 of the 44 seats). The Big Losers ¶4. SMER's current third partner in the national coalition, the Slovak National Party (SNS),headed by Jan Slota, failed in most regions and gained only 9 out of 408 regional slots (of which 6 were in Slota's home region of Zilina). In contrast, Vladimir Meciar's HzDS won over four times as many seats after teaming up with SMER. KDH also performed poorly, falling from 87 seats in the 2005 elections to just 49 in 2009. The SDKU-KDH coalition strategy proved to be as much a failure as the SMER-HzDS coalition proved to be a success. New Hungarian party MOST-HID won only two regional parliament slots, while the veteran Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK) won 40. The new Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party won just one regional parliamentarian slot in Bratislava, but SaS Chairman Sulik claimed victory, as SaS surpassed the 5 percent threshold in the national vote, which, if replicated in June 2010, would earn the new party representation in Parliament. Roma Vote Buying on the Rise? ¶5. Roma vote buying, particularly in Kosice and Presov, where the concentration of the Roma population is highest, but also in Banska Bystrica and Zilina, was a disappointing feature of this year's regional elections. SDKU MP Stefan Kuzma and three other opposition MPs from Presov filed a complaint with the Central Election Commission, stating they "have numerous reports of vote buying from Presov County, where often people made no secret of being paid for their vote. Rather than policies and programs, three to five euros decide who will become the zupan." According to unofficial findings of the opposition deputies, election turnout in some Roma settlements was 60 percent to 70 percent, while the overall turnout was just above twenty percent. ¶6. NDI political program director Zuzana Dzurikova commented that vote buying is something that is always a concern in Romani communities, but what worries her most is that it appears to be getting more sophisticated and organized. In years past, parties would bus Roma to polling stations and buy them sausage or vodka to encourage them to vote one way; there was no guarantee once the Romani voter went into the booth that he or she should actually do it. Now the parties have developed a system by which voters are instructed by their communal leaders, in cahoots with corrupt politicians, to submit a completed ballot and bring their blank ones back out to the vote buyers in exchange for cash. ¶7. Due to suspected voting fraud in the Kosice region, four opposition members of the Central Election Board refused to sign the final report on the election outcome. The police have started an investigation, though the Vice President of the Police, Stanislav Jankovic, says the police view vote buying as an "ethical rather than criminal issue." PM Fico downplayed fraud concerns, saying "In every election, whatever the level is, in whatever European country, always some incident can be BRATISLAVA 00000484 002.3 OF 002 found...and the one who loses, lays blame. And excuse me, but I will not comment on these insults which overwhelm us from the side of the opposition representatives, because it is not worth it." Romani Candidate Elected for First Time ¶8. Miroslav Dano, a successful Romani businessman and candidate for the Roma Coalition Party (SRK),was elected to the Regional Parliament in Presov with 2,491 votes. This is the first time in Slovak history that a Romani candidate has been elected to a position of this level. Dano has not been active in politics in the past, and little is known about his priorities. COMMENT ¶9. A SMER victory was forecast in most pre-election polls (reftel); however, many analysts seem surprised at how resounding it was. Some analysts attribute this to the higher-than-expected turnout, which disadvantaged smaller parties and independent candidates in favor of larger parties and coalitions. While SDKU Chairman Dzurinda and KDH Chairman Figel lamented the vote-buying fraud that they believe cost them seats in the eastern regions, they must clearly be thinking that they need a better strategy to mobilize voters if they are going to keep SMER from marching on next June. As for SNS and HzDS, Fico has clearly shown them he has the power to make or break their political future. End Comment. EDDINS