SLOVAK GAS CRISIS UPDATE: IT'S GETTING POLITICAL

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000017 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE K. ERTAS, L. LOCHMAN STATE FOR EUR/ERA E. MCCONAHA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG ECON EINV LO SUBJECT: SLOVAK GAS CRISIS UPDATE: IT'S GETTING POLITICAL REF: BRATISLAVA 0008 This message is sensitive but unclassified. NOT for internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) As the gas crisis continues to play out in Slovakia, it is becoming more and more a playground for political maneuvering. The GoS has declared an intention to re-open a 440MW nuclear power plant at Jaslovske Bohunice, which had been closed on December 31 as part of Slovakia's EU accession agreement. The plan to re-open the plant has predictably elicited protests from the strongly anti-nuclear Austrians and the EC, and plaudits from Slovak politicians across the political spectrum. Energy analysts in Slovakia have been skeptical, seeing this as a populist move that shows the government taking heroic action in the face of the gas crisis and sticking a thumb in the EU's eye at the same time. ¶2. (SBU) As to the necessity of mobilizing extra electrical generation capacity, the GoS has been playing two conflicting messages: on the one hand, that it has made provisions to keep the gas flowing to residences and critical public infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, and government buildings; and on the other hand, that the crisis is severe enough to re-start Bohunice. To the latter end, Minister of Economy Lubomir Jahnatek has since late last week been sounding increasingly shrill messages about the possible blackout of the entire country. The numbers that he has shared with the public, however, back up the calmer case: Slovakia has a sizable reserve, though with some limitations on the speed with which it can pump from the reserves (reftel),and it is examining how to triage its thermal plants in case system pressure should drop in some parts of the country, particularly the East. The emergency measures imposed on large industrial plants last week remain in effect and have not been raised. As well, Jahnatek's deputy, Peter Ziga, has consistently offered the calmer version of the condition of the electrical grid. ¶3. (SBU) One real development is a fire in the early hours of January 12 in a coal conveyer servicing the 440MW thermal power plant at Novaky, in western Slovakia. The fire has been extinguished, but the damage to the conveyor has shut down the plant. The Ministry of Economy and the electrical utility operator, Slovenske Elektrarne, have offered strikingly different interpretations of the fire's impact on the electrical grid. The Ministry has said that the stability of the grid is threatened, while the operator says it has some 518MW of reserve capacity at Zemianske Kostolany to put online immediately. The operator has estimated that the Novaky plant will remain offline for about three weeks. OBSITNIK