Brazil: Liberalization, Possibility of Expanded Frequencies

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000896 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR EEB/TRA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC STATE PASS USTDA FOR NYOUNG STATE PASS USDOC FOR LFUSSELL STATE PASS USDOT FOR BHEDBERG STATE PASS FAA FOR BAHUMADA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAIR EINV ECON BR SUBJECT: Brazil: Liberalization, Possibility of Expanded Frequencies and USTDA Cooperation in Civil Aviation SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED REF: A) BRASILIA 0016, B) BRASILIA 0076, C) BRASILIA 0303 D) BRASILIA 0395 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The president of Brazil's Agency for Civil Aviation Regulation (ANAC),Solange Paiva Vieira, provided a detailed update of Brazil's civil aviation sector during a July 8 dinner hosted by Ambassador Sobel that was also attended by several of Brazil's leading investment bankers. Vieira outlined new ANAC sponsored market liberalization initiatives aimed at increasing competition, provided updates on an airport concession model (reftel D) to be delivered to Brazil's President Lula in August, detailed the role management consulting firm McKinsey & Company has in developing organizational and operational strategies aimed at ensuring ANAC operates successfully in a more liberalized aviation market environment, and discussed areas of opportunity and engagement between Brazil and the U.S. Vieira was receptive to Ambassador Sobel's request that ANAC consider authorizing additional frequencies beyond the numbers established in the current U.S. / Brazil civil aviation memorandum of understanding (MOU) and recommended that the USG initiate dialogue on this topic directly with ANAC. Vieira also agreed to meet with Nathan Young, USTDA's regional director for Latin America, during his next visit to Brazil to explore additional areas of cooperation in aviation related infrastructure projects. End Summary. ANAC's Legislative Initiatives -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Vieira highlighted a July 8, 2009 decision by Brazil's Civil Aviation Council, whose membership consists of 10 Brazilian federal agencies including ANAC, to increase foreign ownership in Brazilian airlines from 20% to 49%, and to facilitate quicker entry of new airlines into the Brazilian market by no longer requiring that they sign a public concession contract with limited validity. Instead, ANAC would simply authorize, without an expiration date, the new entrant's aviation license once they meet the established financial, safety and operational requirements. Vieira noted that this new proposal, which has been presented to the President's office for approval and will then travel to the Congress for passage, will significantly increase the potential growth in the aviation sector while streamlining the market access process. Vieira explained that these new rules would simplify the often confusing and conflicting public service contracts that many airlines operate under today, and eliminate what the Brazilian Governmental Accounting Office described as irregular contractual situations. Vieira revealed that during the final discussions, ANAC proposed that foreign ownership be unlimited for those companies from countries that have existing bi-lateral aviation agreements with Brazil. Vieira mentioned that this concept could face some hurdles in the Congress, but that ANAC is in support of this clause. Nonetheless, Vieira believes that there is sufficient support in Congress to pass this proposal by year's end. ANAC's Operational Initiatives -------------- ¶3. (SBU) ANAC will be pursuing two operational initiatives aimed at increasing competition in Brazil's civil aviation sector. The first goal is to lift the operational restrictions at Pampulha airport in Brazil's third largest city, Belo Horizonte, in the the state of Minas Gerais. This issue is identical to the lifting of operational restrictions that ANAC achieved at Rio's Santos Dumont airport (reftel C),which, as the smaller of the city's two airports, was subject to operational restrictions designed to promote the city's other larger, international airport. The initiative faces stern opposition from Minas Gerais State Governor Aecio Neves, who is currently focused on expanding the airport infrastructure at Belo's larger Confins airport to increase its capacity to hub status. However, Vieira does not think that ANAC will face the same resistance from Neves as it did from Rio's state governor Sergio Cabral because Pampulha, once its restrictions are lifted, would still be operationally limited to 1 takeoff and 1 landing per hour given its small passenger terminal. This would result in very few routes siphoned from Confins for Pampulha. The second operational initiative involves the reallocation of slots at Sao Paulo's Congonhas airport, the only airport whose slots are completely saturated. ANAC's proposal is to re-allocate, every 2 years, 20% of the airport's slots to those airlines whose operational performance warrants such rewards. The performance criteria used by ANAC will be the airline's schedule regularity and punctuality, and adherence to established safety standards. According to Vieira, this would BRASILIA 00000896 002 OF 003 enhance competition among the airlines and possibly lead to new entrants at Congonhas. The initiative's two year window has been criticized by many airlines for being too short to properly evaluate an airline's performance, and specifically, by Brazilian airline GOL, whose purchase of Brazil's Varig airline in 2007 was partially driven by their desire to capture Varig's coveted slots at Congonhas. ANAC CONTRACTS CONSULTING FIRM -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Vieira announced to the group, whose participants included Managing Director Roderick Greenless from Merrill Lynch Brazil, Director Daniel Sonder from Brazil's Credit Suisse Global Structuring Unit, and Citi's Managing Director in Brazil Jairo Loureiro, that the consulting firm of Mckinsey & Company has been contracted by ANAC to assist in the development of an organizational and operational structure suited to a more liberalized market. Antonnaldo Neves, McKinsey's lead in working with ANAC, advised that he has been working with Vieira for 2 months and is expected to submit organizational and operational strategy papers by October ¶2009. Neves also revealed that he has been consulting ANAC on the concession airport infrastructure model (reftel A, D) that is now scheduled to be presented to President Lula at the beginning of August 2009. Vieira explained that the model will no longer recommend incorporating specific airports into the concession model, but instead provides general criteria that should be used in determining whether an airport should be included in the model. The findings of the latest research, according to Vieira and Neves, recommend that any Brazilian airport with over one million annual passengers be considered suitable for the model. This would encompass 20 airports and leave INFRAERO, the government-funded airport infrastructure and operations management company, with the responsibility of running the remaining 47 airports. When pressed by Loureiro from Citi about the fate of INFRAERO, Vieira said that INFRAERO's operational capacities appear to fail at the one million passenger level and that its internal structure and business model were not compatible with a growing, more liberalized aviation market. Vieira also revealed that a separate evaluation of INFRAERO was being performed by an unnamed consulting firm. Vieira informed the group that there would be no cap on the level of foreign investment in the proposed concession model. Although the model is on schedule for delivery next month to President Lula, Vieira commented that the political decision of which airports to choose will be very time consuming given the elections in 2010 and the complicated web of stakeholders involved. AREAS FOR US/BRAZIL ENGAGEMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) While conceding that an Open Skies (OS) agreement will most likely not occur during the Lula administration, Vieira recommended that both parties adhere to the agreed OS strategies (reftel D). Ambassador Sobel commented that demand for frequencies had already exceeded supply in each of the last 2 rounds of frequency allocations authorized by the DOT and that ANAC should be receptive to more frequencies, noting that several other US airlines were interested in starting or expanding service in Brazil. Vieira suggested that the USG contact ANAC's Director of International Relations, Ronaldo Da Motta, and his assistant, Superintendent Bruno Dalcolmo to discuss increasing frequencies. Vieira pointed out that Rio's Galeao airport and the entire group of airports located in the northeast are operationally capably of handling additional international frequencies, but in Sao Paulo, only Viracopos airport is viable given the operationally restrictions still in place on adding additional international frequencies to Guarulhos airport based on the MOU signed in 2008, and the fact that Congonhas is a domestic airport. However, Viracopos' distance from Sao Paulo (62 miles) makes it unattractive to US carriers. Ambassador Sobel offered ideas of engagement involving USTDA funded studies in airport infrastructure expansion, citing the USD 573,000 USTDA grant signed earlier this year that will fund a study to determine and recommend various options available to Brazil as it invests $1.3 billion in upgrading and expanding the Tancredo Neves International Airport in the Brazilian city of Belo Horizante. Vieira agreed to meet with USTDA Regional Director Nathan Young on his next visit and also recommended reaching out to the state governments. Vieira spoke proudly of ANAC's performances during recent safety audits by both ICAO and the FAA in May and referenced ANAC's collaboration with the TSA in scheduled TSA security visits in August and September 2009 as a testament to ANAC's cooperative spirit and capabilities. BRASILIA 00000896 003 OF 003 ¶6. (SBU) Comment: ANAC continues to be committed to market liberalization in Brazil's civil aviation sector and given its recent successes in lifting operational restrictions at Rio's Santos Dumont airport, the successful implementation of international airfare deregulation, and impressive marks from the two safety audits in May, ANAC is an emboldened agency that is pressing its liberalization agenda with greater force and confidence. Vieira commented on the late hours that she and her staff were working in achieving these successes, despite continued sectoral and political opposition. However, with the 2010 election year approaching, ANAC's abilities to implement new market liberalization measures may be tested. End Comment. Kubiske