BRAZIL'S LULA: NO FRAUD IN IRANIAN ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000773 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV IR BR SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S LULA: NO FRAUD IN IRANIAN ELECTION REF: A. 09 BRASILIA 000551 ¶B. 09 BRASILIA 000479 ¶C. 07 BRASILIA 001889 Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Marie Damour, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In reaction to the protests following the Iranian presidential elections, President Lula went beyond the usual Brazilian platitudes about not commenting on the internal affairs of other countries and defended the legitimacy of the vote in Iran while reiterating his invitation to Ahmadinejad to visit Brazil after the latter,s visit was postponed in May (Ref A). Other senior government officials have called the elections and protest a sign of a vibrant democracy. The Ministry of External Relations (Itamaraty) has been more circumspect, avoiding formal or informal statements, at least until the Guardians Council finishes the reported recounting of votes. End summary. -------------- Just Sore Losers -------------- ¶2. (U) In the aftermath of the Iranian presidential elections and the subsequent eruption in street protests, President Lula was quoted in the press as stating that they were merely the protests of "those who lost". He dismissed the importance of the protests, noting that Iran "is not the first country that has an election in which those who lost protest the results...that,s becoming a fashion in Brazil... people who win the election lose them in the courts and the losers enter office." Despite extensive indications suggesting the regime committed massive electoral fraud, he observed that "the margin of victory was too big for anyone to imagine there was fraud," adding, "I don,t know anyone other than the opposition who disagreed with the election results...there are no numbers, there is no evidence." Lula,s senior foreign policy advisor Marco Aurelio Garcia on Sunday echoed Lula's comments, calling the protests a "positive thing" that shows Iran is a vibrant democracy. He praised the high turnout, which "demonstrated the intensity of social and political life in Iran." -------------- Ahmadinejad Still Welcome in Brasilia -------------- ¶3. (U) Lula also noted that the allegations of voter fraud and subsequent violence there would in no way impede a future Ahmadinejad visit to Brazil, after his May visit was cancelled (Ref A). "The moment he wants to (reschedule the visit) I will receive him," Lula noted. He added that he had plans to visit Iran in 2010 because of Brazil,s interest to expand the commercial relationship with Iran and Brazil,s interest in "establishing the best possible relations with all countries in the world, including Iran." -------------- Caution in Itamaraty -------------- ¶4. (C) Secretary Carlos Leopoldo Goncalves de Oliveira told poloff that Itamaraty would not comment officially on events there and would not issue a statement of congratulations to the winner of the election at least until President Lula and Minister Amorim return from their trip to Kazakhstan. For the moment, Itamaraty will monitor the Guardians Council,s recount. Asked if Itamaraty thought reports of election fraud had merit or whether it was concerned about reports of violence, Goncalves replied that Itamaraty had no position and had no further comment on the matter. -------------- Comment: -------------- ¶5. (C) It does not surprise us that President Lula would engage in a speculative comment affirming the validity of the election, even amidst near universal expressions of concern BRASILIA 00000773 002 OF 002 over voter fraud and his own Foreign Ministry,s silence. Lula,s agenda of building closer relations with Iran and possibly positioning himself to serve as a neutral arbiter between Iran and the West is clear. Lula has a tendency to eschew diplomatic-speak when commenting on world events and is often more forward leaning than his foreign ministry would prefer (Ref B). It is also not the first time that he has commented on Iranian issues without carefully scrutinizing the facts, as he did when he declared during the 2007 UNGA that Iran had not violated any international agreements with regards to its nuclear program despite various UNSC resolutions declaring Iran in noncompliance with its IAEA obligations (Ref C). Nevertheless, even if President Lula,s views did not reflect those of Brazil,s official foreign policy establishment, we should not expect the Brazilian government, perennially uncomfortable &messing8 in the internal affairs of other countries, to say anything critical of the election process or the Iranian regime,s actions. In the end, Brazil will probably accept, uncritically, any outcome as determined by the Guardians Council and the Supreme Leader. SOBEL