BRAZIL ON THE MAJOR ECONOMIES FORUM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000507 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC DAVID SCHNIER STATE FOR OES/OGS BARBARA DEROSA-JOYNT STATE FOR S/SECC PETER OGDEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG ECON KSCA BR SUBJECT: BRAZIL ON THE MAJOR ECONOMIES FORUM REF: A) STATE 27497, B) WHITE HOUSE 3210815, C) STATE 40579, D) BRASILIA 202 BRASILIA 00000507 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED AND NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY. Overcoming some earlier concerns, Brazil has embraced the Major Economies Forum (MEF) process. Brazil will send its chief negotiator, Ambassador Vera Machado, the Ministry of External Relations Under Secretary for Political Affairs, as the Leader's Representative plus three other members of the climate change negotiating team. Coming out of the recent meeting in Bonn, the Brazilian team is concerned that the participants have not yet entered into full negotiating mode. END SUMMARY. BRAZILIAN PARTICIPATION AT THE MAJOR ECONOMIES FORUM ¶3. (SBU) The Government of Brazil (GOB) initially had questioned the value of continuing the Major Economies Meeting (MEM) process in 2009 (REFTEL D). Once the decision was made to launch the Major Economies Forum (MEF),however, it has determined to actively participate. In fact, the Minister of Exterior Relations (MRE) Celso Amorim contacted Post to confirm Brazil's inclusion in the MEF. The GOB initially wanted to send a delegation larger than permitted, but now has pared it down to three additional members. ¶4. (SBU) Brazil proposes to send the following delegation: Leader's Representative: VERA Lucia Barrouin Crivano MACHADO MRE, Ambassador, Under Secretary for Political Affairs Other Delegation Members: LUIZ Alberto Figueiredo MACHADO (no relation) MRE, Minister, Director-General of the Department of Environment and Special Affairs JOSE Domingos Gonzalez MIGUEZ Executive Secretary of the Interministerial Commission on Global Climate Change Ministry of Science and Technology BRANCA Bastos AMERICANO Director, Department of Climate Change Ministry of Environment STATE OF PLAY AFTER BONN ¶5. (SBU) On April 17, Post's Environment, Science & Technology, and Health (ESTH) Counselor met with Sergio Serra, MRE's Special Ambassador for Climate Change, and Andre Odenbreit, MRE's Director of the Environmental Policy and Sustainable Development Division, to learn Brazil's views on the state of negotiations coming out of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Bonn, March 29 - April 8. Serra and Odenbreit expressed satisfaction in hearing and meeting with Todd Stern and Jonathan Pershing in Bonn. (REFTEL C) They saw the USG playing a critical role in the negotiations and so were concerned that the U.S. negotiators were being reserved as they wait to see what climate change legislation the U.S. Congress will produce later this year. Serra thought the timing was very tight, especially if the U.S. Congress doesn't enact something before later in the summer. ¶6. (SBU) At Bonn, Serra and Odenbreit had mixed reactions. They thought that the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) was serious and making real progress. However, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) seemed to be paralyzed. They said it looked like the AWG-KP was on hold while everyone waits to see what the United States will do. Given the very tight schedule leading up to Copenhagen in December, they were becoming worried about meeting the deadline. Moreover, they commented that the UNFCCC was not yet in a "full negotiating mode," which it will have to do so very soon to meet its schedule. ¶7. (SBU) Serra and Odenbreit returned to the theme of "comparability" of policies and measures, which they raised in Janaury. (See REFTEL D) That is a priority for Brazil. Unlike the United States and many other industrialized countries, Brazil has a very clean energy matrix (vast majority of electricity comes from BRASILIA 00000507 002.2 OF 002 hydropower and it uses more biofuel than gasoline),but has substantial emissions due to a massive deforestation problem. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT. Brazil now may be considering taking a more pro-active role in the negotiations including agreeing to targets in some form. Environment Minister Carlos Minc has called for Brazil to pursue just such a course. He sees a grand compromise where developed countries agree to sharp emissions reductions and generous financial assistance and technology transfer for the developing countries, which in return would agree to targets. Although MRE leads the Brazilian international climate change team, the Environment Ministry is seeking to play a larger role. END COMMENT. ¶9. (SBU) In December 2008, Minister Minc succeeded in changing domestic policy to include in the National Plan on Climate Change targets for reducing the deforestation rate from about 20,000 square kilometers per year (1996-2005) to about 6,000 square kilometers per year for the period 2014-2017, which would be about a 70% reduction. Since deforestation accounts for roughly 75% of Brazil's emissions, that would amount to about a 30% reduction in emissions by 2017 compared to the 1996-2005 period, based on the assumption that emissions from all other sources doubled during this period. SOBEL