BRAZILIAN VIEWS ON KOSOVO RECOGNITION, THE BALKANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000188

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/BSC AND EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2019
TAGS: PREL AORC NATO RS AL BK KV MK BR
SUBJECT: BRAZILIAN VIEWS ON KOSOVO RECOGNITION, THE BALKANS
AND CAUCASUS

REF: SECSTATE 11928

Classified By: political Counselor Stephen Liston. Reason 1.5 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Brazil's position on Kosovo recognition
has not changed: the GOB would prefer a clear UN consensus in
favor of Kosovo independence. Serbia is lobbying Brazil and
other key UN members to file briefs at the ICJ in its favor.
The Foreign Ministers of Macedonia and Bosnia have
recently visited Brazil to seek investment in their countries
and improved bilateral contacts. Brazil will enhance its own
presence in the Balkans with the opening later this year of
an embassy in Tirana. Brazil remains curious about the
situation in the southern Caucasus, prospects for renewed
violence and Russia's relations with its neighbors and NATO.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In an extensive discussion with Ministry for
External Relations (MRE) Director for Eastern Europe
Elizabeth Mazzella, Embassy Brasilia found that there is no
change in Brazil's position on recognition of Kosovo. Brazil
prefers consensus on UN issues and would like to believe that
there can be some arrangement possible whereby Serbia can
accept Kosovo independence, possibly as a condition for EU
membership or in exchange for territory north of the Ibar.
Even though the MRE understands that according to the Serbian
government these scenarios are highly unlikely, Brazil will
continue to prefer not to take a potentially controversial
position. Mazzella mentioned that Brazil has been lobbied
"skillfully" by Serbian MFA Undersecretary Zoran Vujic to
file a brief with the ICJ on Serbia's contention that
Kosovo's declaration of independence is illegal. Given
longstanding Brazilian concerns about the importance of what
it considers international law in defense of national
sovereignty, the
MRE is considering Serbia's request. Comment: That Serbia's
request would receive consideration has little to do with the
situation in the Balkans and much to do with long-standing
Brazilian paranoia that outside forces could potentially act
to take away Brazil's Amazon region. While such concerns are
not based in any real threat, they have a high enough profile
in Brazilian political discourse that they must be given
consideration. End comment.


3. (C) Mazzella also reported Serbian fear-mongering about
the U.S. and Czech governments "arming" Albanian "criminals"
in the guise of the newly-created Kosovo Security Force
(KSF). Embassy polmiloff pointed out that the KSF would be
smaller and less well armed than the Rio Police Department,
would be under NATO supervision and would be heavily
outgunned by Serb forces on Kosovo's borders. Mazzella asked
if the EU would be playing a larger role in Kosovo rule of
law and expressed concern that EULEX was insufficient, citing
Serbian claims that independent Kosovo would become a haven
for crime.
Polmiloff noted that without an improved economy, crime would
be difficult to control and the greatest barrier to economic
improvement was the lack of standing with the UN and IFIs
that discouraged foreign assistance and investment.


4. (C) The first part of 2009 has seen an expansion of
Brazilian attention to the Southeast Europe region with the
January visits by the Foreign Ministers of Bosnia and
Macedonia to Brasilia. Apart from the understandable
objective of escaping a winter in the Balkans for Brazil's
more congenial climate, both Ministers had similar goals: to
improve bilateral ties and to seek investments in their
countries by portraying them as potential "hubs" for
commercial activity in the region. When asked what sorts of
investments might be possible in Macedonia, Mazzella, replied
that Brazil has nothing specific in mind but was looking for
one or two "symbolic" opportunities to demonstrate Brazil's
global reach by establishing a presence in the Balkans. Both
Macedonia and Bosnia signed agreements on visa free travel
with Brazil and stated intentions to open regional embassies
in Brasilia to cover all or most of South America. The
Brazilian government continues to expand its own diplomatic
presence abroad and will later this year open its first
embassy in Tirana.

BRASILIA 00000188 002 OF 002




5. (C) Moving to the east, the Mazzella expressed concern
about the situation in Georgia. The MRE had expected that
President Sakashvili would be forced from office for
"causing" last year's conflict with Russia. (NOTE: Without
diplomatic presence in Georgia, Brazil's information on the
South Caucasus comes only from Moscow.) Brazil is encouraged
by what is seen as more moderate rhetoric from Moscow
regarding the U.S. and NATO, noting that with the fall in
world oil process, Moscow now seems less
confrontational. Mazzella asked if the new U.S.
Administration might signal a change in U.S. missile
defense plans. While understanding that the U.S. has sought
dialogue with Russia to provide assurance that anti-missile
defenses will have no effect on Russian deterrence, Brazil
believes that missile defense will remain an irritant to the
NATO-Russia relationship.
SOBEL