PMDB WINS TOP CONGRESS POSTS, COULD GET 2010 VEEP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000167 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2024 TAGS: PGOV PREL BR SUBJECT: PMDB WINS TOP CONGRESS POSTS, COULD GET 2010 VEEP CANDIDATE SLOT REF: A. 08 BRASILIA 1414 ¶B. 07 BRASILIA 2233 ¶C. 07 RIO DE JANEIRO 559 Classified By: Political Counselor Stephen M. Liston, reason 1.4 d. ¶1. (C) Summary. The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) consolidated its position as kingmaker for the 2010 presidential election after winning the presidencies of both houses of Congress on February 2. While the PMDB will remain faithful to President Lula and the Workers' Party (PT),the lead party in the government coalition, in an alliance that has benefited the PMDB immensely, allegiance may come at the price of the vice-presidential slot on the ticket. In Brazilian political time, October 2010 is a long way off and other scenarios could play out. The PMDB could persuade Minas Gerais governor Aecio Neves to leave the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and run as its candidate. In a much less likely scenario, the PMDB backs the candidacy of Sao Paulo governor Jose Serra of the PSDB, the lead opposition party. No matter who wins the election, one thing is sure: the PMDB will be invited to join the next government. The PMDB, a non-ideological party, brings no ideological baggage or policy demands into an alliance. It only requires seats at the cabinet table and jobs at the public trough. PMDB participation in the government has no foreign policy ramifications for the USG, although key PMDB figures are generally more favorably inclined towards partnership with the US than their PT counterparts. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) On February 2 former president and current senator Jose Sarney (PMDB, of Amapa) and federal deputy Michel Temer (PMDB, of Sao Paulo) were elected to third non-consecutive terms as president of the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, respectively. Sarney's victory also had the collateral effect of rehabilitating Senator Renan Calheiros (PMDB,of Alagoas),Sarney's chief behind-the-scenes ally who was forced out of the Senate presidency in a 2007 corruption scandal (ref B). PMDB Positioned to Demand Veep Slot with PT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) The PMDB was already Brazil's most powerful party, with more governors, more senators, more deputies, more mayors and more members than any other party. It has six cabinet ministers and countless political appointees throughout the government, especially in resource-rich state firms such as Petrobras and others (Ref C). If the PMDB was already the indispensable ally in Brazilian politics (ref A),it is even more so with Sarney and Temer at the helms of Congress, and can rightfully flex its muscles and demand the vice presidential slot on the PT ticket that is likely to be BRASILIA 00000167 002 OF 003 headed by Dilma Rousseff. Likely picks from the PMDB include Rio de Janeiro governor Sergio Cabral, Rio de Janeiro mayor Eduardo Paes, National Integration Minister Geddel Vieira Lima, Defense Minister Nelson Jobim, and Michel Temer. No PMDB Presidential Material in Sight - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) The PMDB does not now have a viable presidential candidate, and its modus operandi is to ally with winners in exchange for spoils such as cabinet appointments and directorships of large state firms, which in turn gives the party the ability to appoint its members throughout lower levels. The PMDB does not impose ideological conditions - including foreign policy -- and willingly supports an administration as long as its terms are met, as it did under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2003) and, more recently, in President Lula's second term. Above all the PMDB wants to be in the government coalition. The PMDB is in an enviable position: it understands that by dint of its size the winner must invite it to join the government or face an ungovernable Congress. PMDB Has Done Well in Government Coalition - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) According to Cristiano Noronha of the Arko Advice political consulting firm, the PMDB understands that it has benefited from its alliance with Lula and the PT, riding the crest of a wave of personal and government popularity that has now reached record highs. As a member of the government coalition, the PMDB has recovered from a contraction that took place over years, mainly in terms of PMDB local office-holders. For a party that is unlike traditional parties in that it is above all a confederation of local bosses, it was a worrisome trend. For this reason, Noronha believes the PMDB will stay with the Lula coalition through the 2010 elections. The Aecio Neves Question - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Some analysts, including Noronha, believe it is possible the Minas Gerais governor Aecio Neves could leave the PSDB to run as the PMDB presidential candidate. The party has already formally invited him to do so but he diplomatically demurred. But Noronha ruled out the possibility that Neves might become a vice presidential candidate with a PT running mate. At the same time, Noronha believes Neves might accept the veep slot on a "purebred" ticket with Jose Serra, which many view as a sure winning combination. Least Likely Scenario: PMDB Plus PSDB - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Finally, there is the scenario in which the PMDB runs with the PSDB, but there is no reason to believe at present that BRASILIA 00000167 003 OF 003 the PMDB will break faith with the Lula government and support the PSDB candidate in the 2010 general elections. But in Brazil we cannot rule anything out a year and a half before the elections. ¶8. (C) Comment: The PMDB is an immensely powerful giant, but seems unable to lead; it only follows. It has no original program of its own other than being in power. The heavy lifting of formulating policy falls to others, and the PMDB willingly plays a supporting role. To the extent that the PMDB tends to strengthen clientelistic patterns of political behavior and may diminish voter decisions based on ideological considerations in favor of "me first," pork barrel ballot box decisions, the PMDB's ascendancy is not a positive development. However, with no ideological ax to grind, the PMDB is an open and accessible interlocutor for the USG, and we have built productive relationships with top PMDB figures such as Jose Sarney, Nelson Jobim, Energy Minister Edison Lobao, and Education Minister Fernando Haddad. SOBEL