BRAZIL: U/S MACHADO ON GOB'S CLIMATE POSITION GOING INTO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001402 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV KGHG EFIN EAGR EAID BR SUBJECT: BRAZIL: U/S MACHADO ON GOB'S CLIMATE POSITION GOING INTO COPENHAGEN - A POSITIVE FORCE REF: 09 BRASILIA 1136 (U) THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED AND NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Brazilian Ministry of External Relations Under Secretary for Policy Vera Machado and her deputy, Special Ambassador for Climate Change Sergio Serra, told Charge that Brazil is more optimistic about the outcome for the Conference of the Parties-15 (COP-15) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen than they were a month ago. In the last 18 months, Brazil has moved from often being an impediment to being a positive force in many areas of the negotiations, most notably with its recent announcement of an ambitious (36% to 39%) economy-wide reduction in emissions by 2020 compared with business as usual. Brazil openly seeks to play a "bridging" role between the developed countries and the developing ones. The GOB sees the U.S. proposal on mitigation actions and that of the Chinese as contributing to an improvement in the prospects for success at COP-15. The two critical outstanding issues in their view are (1) the need for substantial increase in financing and (2) maintaining the architecture set forth in the Bali Roadmap, which has two tracks, one for Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol and another for developing countries under the UNFCCC. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) On December 2, Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Lisa Kubiske met with Brazilian Ministry of External Relations Under Secretary for Policy Vera Machado to discuss the Government of Brazil's (GOB) position going into Copenhagen UNFCCC COP-15. Machado was accompanied by two of her deputies: Special Ambassador for Climate Change Sergio Serra, and Director of the North America Division Carlos Abreu. Science Counselor joined the Charge. ¶3. (SBU) While Machado was pleased that President Obama would be going to Copenhagen on December 9, she regretted that there would be no overlap with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva or many other foreign leaders, who would be coming later during the conference. She indicated that Obama's presence when other leaders were there the second week would have helped them come to agreement. She added that Brazilian public opinion has been a positive factor in developing Brazil's position. Charge asked about Brazil's views on the U.S. position on mitigation, noting that it was a pathway for deep cuts and well before 2050, such as 30 percent reduction below 2005 levels in 2025 and a 42 percent reduction in 2030. Machado demurred, saying that they were going to talk to President Lula next week. However, Serra was more upbeat. He said that in light of the positions announced by the United States and China and Brazil he was more optimistic about COP-15 than he had been a month ago. Machado and Serra were accepting of having a political agreement at Copenhagen, rather than a legal agreement. ¶4. (SBU) Now that there is movement on mitigation, Serra opined that one of the most critical issue for Copenhagen will be fleshing out financial support. He thought that without concrete numbers on financing there would be little chance for progress. THE BASIC GROUP - MAINTAIN BALI ARCHITECTURE ¶5. (SBU) Serra discussed the November 26-27 meeting in China of the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China). He highlighted that the BASIC group was focused on architecture issues. They wanted to see implementation of the Bali Roadmap with its two track approach. Annex I countries would sign up for a new round of binding emissions reductions obligations - and the United States too - and the developing countries would agree to non-binding Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). BRASILIA 00001402 002 OF 003 ¶6. (SBU) Neither Machado nor Serra had seen the latest draft of a BASIC group statement, though they commented that there probably would be one prepared and released. They did not treat a joint statement as a major matter for Brazil. Further, they laughed at the prospect of India walking out. Serra assured the Charge that based on a report he had heard from India that they would not do so. Machado joked that Brazil would be there to keep them from leaving the building. INTERNATIONAL VERIFICATION - FINE WITH BRAZIL ¶7. (SBU) Serra told Charge that Brazil accepts the idea of international verification of mitigation actions, even if those actions are taken without international support. He noted that Minister of Exterior Relations Celso Amorim had already declared that Brazil is ready for peer review of Brazil's mitigation actions. Serra said that this peer review was consistent with monitoring in other international fora, such as with respect to human rights. Nonetheless, Serra emphasized that Brazil's position was not shared by some other developing countries. These others countries were putting up a strong resistance to international verification for unsupported mitigation actions. COMMENT. While Brazil is willing to accept international verification, it appears that it also can go along without it too and that it isn't currently inclined to press hard either way. END COMMENT. PEAK YEAR CONCEPT - 2020 IS TOO EARLY ¶8. (SBU) When asked about the use of the peak year concept, Serra responded that Brazil viewed 2020 as being too soon to be used as a peak year for developing countries. He appeared less concerned about establishing a peak year later on. CAP ON THE USE OF OFFSETS - REMAINS UNCLEAR ¶9. (SBU) Serra said that Brazil - meaning his Ministry of External Relations - would like to have a cap on offsets because it wanted Annex I countries to make most of their emissions reductions in their own countries. He said that Brazil could envision allowing some use of offsets for forest conservation, as a part of a package of financing for forest conservation. In such case, Brazil would like to see the majority of the funds come from public financing and other sources, and only a smaller portion from offsets. Serra acknowledged that his Ministry's view was not universally accepted within Brazil. Machado pointed out that there was substantial pushback within Brazil to this position, especially from the governors in the Amazon region who want to tap the funding possible from allowing forest offsets. For now, the idea of imposing a ceiling or cap on offsets is something that the Ministry of External Relations favors, but which has not been agreed to by the rest of the government, much less by other countries with forests. BRAZILIAN PARTICIPANTS GOING TO COPENHAGEN ¶10. (SBU) Head of the Presidency, Minister Dilma Rousseff, will head the Brazilian delegation to Copenhagen. President Lula will attend the second week of the conference during the high-level session. Minister of the Environment Carlos Minc will be there throughout with his team, including Director of the Climate Change Secretariat Suzanna Kahn and special advisor Tasso Azevedo. The Ministry of External Relations is sending Minister Celso Amorim, Director of the Environment Department Luiz Figueiredo Machado, and Ambassador Serra. Under Secretary Vera Machado was not sure if she would attend and, if she did, she said it would be just for a short period during the high-level session. It is likely that Minister of Science and Technology Sergio Rezende will attend some of the conference, and Minister of Mines and Energy Edson Lobao might go BRASILIA 00001402 003 OF 003 too. The governors from various Amazon states will be bringing large delegations to Copenhagen, including Governor Eduardo Braga from the State of Amazonas (who is seeking meetings with both President Obama and Todd Stern) and Governor Blairo Maggi from the State of Mato Grosso. COMMENT ¶11. (SBU) Brazil has come a long way in the last 18-months and mostly in the right direction. Back then, the GOB was on the defensive due to a jump in its already high rate of Amazon deforestation. The GOB concentrated much of its effort on pursuing a restrictive view of the "common, but differentiated responsibilities principle," i.e., Annex I countries must take on obligations for further reductions and for providing financial assistance to developing countries, while Brazil, India, China and other developing countries had nothing more to do than report on their emissions. Also back then, senior GOB officials told USG counterparts that the GOB could not see itself - or other developing countries - agreeing to economy-wide or sectoral emissions reductions targets even though they were not legally binding. Further, the GOB adamantly opposed offsets and credits for forests. ¶12. (SBU) Today, the GOB seems confident of its position going into Copenhagen and wants to play a leadership role or more precisely, play a "bridging" role between the developed countries and the G-77. Brazil is proud that this year it has lowered the Amazon deforestation rate by around 40 percent compared with last year, to a record low level in the last two decades. The GOB is bringing to the table in Copenhagen one of the most ambitious mitigation proposals among developing countries, and this proposal includes an economy-wide reduction target. Despite reluctance from the Ministry of External Relations, the GOB is now willing to accept the use of offsets to conserve forests. ¶13. (SBU) The GOB leadership is investing significant political capital in making Copenhagen a success, including having President Lula trying to call President Obama and other world leaders to urge their personal participation, and going there himself. Lula and his team have been active in trying to produce a positive outcome at COP-15, meeting numerous times with French President Sarkozy, other European leaders, leaders from Amazon countries, and key officials from China, India and South Africa. Of course, the GOB from Lula, to Rousseff, to their senior officials frequently have met and discussed climate change with their U.S. counterparts. Rousseff is a candidate for president in 2010. Her role as head of the GOB delegation means she could become linked to the outcome from Copenhagen - good or bad -in the eyes of Brazilian environmentalists. Also, ex-Environment Minister Marina Silva has indicated she is planning to enter into the presidential race. This makes environment a more prominent issue in the contest and makes it more important for Rousseff, a former Energy Minister, to burnish her environmental bona fides. ¶14. (SBU) Now, Brazil appears to view the U.S. position, as well as that of China's, as contributing to the prospects for success at COP-15. For Brazil, the questions of financing and of the architecture of the agreement - i.e., whether Kyoto Protocol continues as it has been or is modified - will be the dominant issues to be addressed in the two weeks in Copenhagen. In short, Brazil in the last 18-months has transitioned from often being an obstacle to a good conclusion at COP-15, to being either not an obstacle or, in many key ways, a positive force for success. END COMMENT. KUBISKE KUBISKE