BRAZIL ON THE WAY FORWARD IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001401

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL AF PK BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL ON THE WAY FORWARD IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN

REF: 09 SECSTATE 122731


1. (U) Summary: The GOB's outlook on Afghanistan is

pessimistic, and it is skeptical that additional military

forces can make the situation better. The GOB nevertheless

believes in the Obama Administration's "good intentions,"

and Brazil is willing to participate in Afghanistan's "civil

reconstruction process." End Summary.




2. (U) Approximately four hours before President Obama's

December 1 announcement on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Charge

d'Affaires Lisa Kubiske previewed U.S. strategy with Ministry

of Foreign Affairs (MRE) Under Secretary for Asia Roberto

Jaguaribe and sought the GOB's support for U.S. and

international efforts to bring peace and stability to the

region.




3. (U) Jaguaribe said that the GOB has "a solid belief in the

good intentions" of the USG but is skeptical that additional

military resources will help the situation. He noted what he

described as "a Catch 22": The more Afghanistan is seen to be

reliant on U.S. military power, the less he and the United States

are acceptable to the Afghan population. Yet, without U.S.

military support, Karzai falls. The trick is finding the right

balance.




4. (U) Jaguaribe cited 19th Century Portuguese novelist and

diplomat Eca de Queiroz who mocked Britain's "great victory

over Afghanistan," which Queiroz wrote would have to be repeated

every 10 to 15 years. Charge noted that today the goal of

international forces is not conquest but the contrary, building

the capacity of the Afghan people so that they can defend their

sovereignty. We are accelerating training of the Afghan National

Security Forces so that they won't need foreign forces, and at the

same time we are significantly increasing civilian resources for

Afghanistan.




5. (U) Jaguaribe saw as a hopeful sign the interest of the

international community in Afghanistan, noting that India had a

"huge stake" in the outcome there and that Iran "could be helpful

or could be harmful." He thought it important that the USG consult


internationally as widely as possible before taking actions with

respect to Afghanistan. He said that Brazil had been talking

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recently with Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States who was

in Brasilia and spoke of opening an embassy, something the GOB

would welcome.




6. (U) Finally, Jaguaribe said that the GOB had some limited

Development, mostly agricultural assistance for Afghanistan.

He said that the GOB is interested in participating in the
country's

"civil reconstruction process." Any Brazilian military

involvement in the area is highly unlikely, he added. (Note:
Jaguaribe

did not comment on Pakistan.)
KUBISKE