URIBE SILENT AS "DEADLINE" TO DECLARE CANDIDACY FOR

UNCLAS BOGOTA 003485 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KJUS CO SUBJECT: URIBE SILENT AS "DEADLINE" TO DECLARE CANDIDACY FOR REELECTION LAPSES REF: BOGOTA 3373 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) With less than six months until the May 30 presidential election, the political panorama is as murky as ever (reftels). There is still no answer to the million dollar question: "will President Uribe run for a second reelection?" Observers and the entire spectrum of presidential candidates had hoped Uribe would make his intentions known on November 30, as the Law of Guarantees enacted before Uribe's first reelection in 2006 requires a sitting president to declare his candidacy for reelection six months before the election date. The Law of Guarantees comes with restrictions on the activities of a sitting president seeking reelection, in order to level the playing field somewhat for candidates that do not control the state apparatus. However, the initiative calling for a referendum to modify the constitution to allow a third presidential term is still under review by the Constitutional Court. Since the referendum has not been held, Uribe can not legally declare himself a candidate. Uribe, who was at the Ibero-American Summit in Portugal on November 30, made no comment on his reelection plans or the Law of Guarantees. ¶2. (U) Whether or not the failure to comply with the Law of Guarantees inhibits Uribe's potential candidacy remains an open question. Some Uribe opponents were quick to point out that the Law is still in force, opining that by not declaring his candidacy by November 30, Uribe can not run in the May 30 elections. Supporters stressed that Uribe could not legally declare his candidacy before the referendum, and opined that if the Constitutional Court sanctions the referendum, Uribe will be allowed to be a candidate despite the Law of Guarantees since the referendum is a "higher law." Another possible loophole is that the Law of Guarantees deals with "reelection" and not "re-reelection," so does not apply to a subsequent constitutional reform allowing a third term. ¶3. (SBU) It seems clear that this latest obstacle will be overcome or ignored just as previous, more onerous impediments were surpassed. It is equally evident that, as Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA) presidential candidate Gustavo Petro said, "President Uribe's interest in reelection is leading the country to a rupture of institutions that deepens with every passing moment." Liberal Party presidential candidate Rafael Pardo urged President Uribe to voluntarily comply with the Law of Guarantees' restrictions on ethical grounds. This is a real possibility, described to us weeks ago by "U" Party Secretary General Mario Solano, but Uribe should announce his voluntary compliance in order to give other candidates and Colombia's citizenry increased peace of mind. The relatively sparse media coverage of the passing "deadline" is a further indication of the pervasive feeling in Colombia that President Uribe is happy to let this state of limbo endure for the months remaining until the Constitutional Court issues its decision. COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Uribe's potential candidacy allows him to avoid lame duck status and to keep the political machinery in his pocket. His low profile on the reelection question allows the initiative to continue to be portrayed as of the people, by the people and for the people, rather than as an executive's refusal to relinquish the reins of power. We will likely have to wait until February or March for the presidential race to become clearer. End Comment. BROWNFIELD