JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27 TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM CO EC VE SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH AMBASSADOR CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassa... id: 231676 date: 10/27/2009 23:00 refid: 09BOGOTA3269 origin: Embassy Bogota classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: header: VZCZCXYZ0005 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHBO #3269/01 3002300 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 272300Z OCT 09 FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0534 INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0126 RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0456 RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0482 RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003269 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/27 TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS PHUM CO EC VE SUBJECT: JUAN MANUEL SANTOS DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS WITH AMBASSADOR CLASSIFIED BY: William R. Brownfield, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Former Minister of Defense and pre-candidate for President Juan Manuel Santos told Ambassador October 23 he believes President Alvaro Uribe is leaning toward reelection but may fail to fulfill the legal and electoral steps to achieve it. While promoting the third term for Uribe, Santos is positioning himself as Uribe's successor if necessary. He thought his chances good against the remaining field of candidates, though much depends on what alliances are struck among them. Regarding the U.S.-Colombia relationship, Santos said his country needed the United States to stand up against others in South America with a contrary political outlook. End Summary. Uribe's "Crucible of the Soul" -------------- ¶2. (C) At a lunch hosted by Ambassador, former Minister of Defense Santos told the Ambassador that he remains dedicated to promoting President Uribe's third term prospects but will gladly step in as the U Party's presumptive candidate if those efforts are not successful. Santos said he believed Uribe had been tending toward not running for reelection last May when Uribe gave him the go-ahead to resign from the Ministry of Defense so that Santos could run for President. At that time, Santos said he thought Uribe's chances of changing the Constitution were good. ¶3. (C) That perception was changed, Santos said, by the illegal wiretap scandal at the Administrative Department of Security (DAS) and intimations by the International Criminal Court that it may entertain cases from Colombia when the GOC's reservation to the Treaty of Rome expires in November. Santos perceived that Uribe viewed these events as potential setbacks to his Democratic Security Policy and, as a result, was now more desirous of a third term. However, Santos believed that time was too short to carry out the steps remaining to achieve reelection. He even doubted that Uribe could mobilize the 7.2 million votes necessary for the referendum to be valid. Candidate Santos -------------- ¶4. (C) If Uribe steps aside, Santos was certain he could win the presidency in two rounds, though much depended on how the other candidates might align before and after the first round. He thought it unlikely that Conservative Party (PC) hopeful Noemi Sanin would join his campaign given their poor relationship. The other PC pre-candidate, Andres Felipe Arias, is embroiled in a scandal over agricultural subsidies; Santos thought the young politician would be patient and wait for a future opportunity to make his run. Santos detailed the Left's dilemma: the Liberal Party (LP) can ally with fellow anti-reelection parties Democratic Alternative Pole (PDA) or Radical Change (CR),but not both given their contrary political leanings. Santos discounted independent candidate Sergio Fajardo altogether, saying that his campaign had stagnated. While the May 2010 elections were "an eternity" away in political terms, Santos imagined a scenario where he and Sanin finish in the top two, making the final round a contest against right-leaning candidates. Colombia Regional Relations -------------- ¶5. (C) Santos said he was disappointed at the Foreign Ministry's handling of the rapprochement with Ecuador. The fact that a judge in Ecuador was seeking his extradition, along with Chief of Defense Freddy Padilla and Director of the Colombian National Police Oscar Naranjo, for the March 2008 attack on Raul Reyes' Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) camp in Ecuador was a problem for the Colombian State, he said. Santos said the Foreign Ministry was too focused on restoring relations with Ecuador and was not doing enough to defend the high-ranking Colombian officials involved in the operation. ¶6. (C) He similarly criticized the Foreign Ministry for not doing more to isolate Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez internationally. He said the U.S.-Colombia Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), which he initiated as Minister of Defense, was a strategic advance for Colombia to deter the threat from Venezuela. BROWNFIELD =======================CABLE ENDS============================