CONGRESS APPROVES REELECTION REFERENDUM, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 002833 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CO SUBJECT: CONGRESS APPROVES REELECTION REFERENDUM, BUT HURDLES REMAIN REF: A. BOGOTA 2772 ¶B. BOGOTA 2625 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: DCM Brian A. Nichols, reasons 1.4 (b&d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Colombian Congress has approved legislation for a referendum on a third term for President Alvaro Uribe in May 2010, with the September 2 affirmative vote in the House of Representatives. After presidential signature, the Constitutional Court -- thought to be supportive of Uribe -- must rule on the constitutionality of the third term. There are additional legal hurdles that the Uribistas must navigate, in addition to the task of winning a referendum in which 25 percent of the electorate must participate. Other candidacies may be declared as late as mid-March, so Uribe still has some flexibility in this ever-contracting timeline. End Summary. HOUSE PASSES REFERENDUM BILL BY A SQUEAKER -------------- ¶2. (SBU) With a slim one-vote margin, the House of Representatives on September 2 approved the bill that could allow President Uribe to run for a third term in 2010 (see reftels). Approval in the House was an arduous affair, as 96 separate plenary roll-call votes over three days were needed to permit votes by members who were under investigation for their previous, allegedly premature, votes for the referendum. At the eleventh hour, the Radical Change (Cambio Radical) party also tried to bar five members from voting because they had violated the party's instructions to oppose the referendum, but the five members jumped ship to Uribe's "U" Party and the President of the House allowed them to vote. These five votes were crucial to the 85-5 result, as 84 votes were needed to approve the measure (most opposition parties abstained). Interior Minister Fabio Valencia Cossio led the successful whipping of votes. ¶3. (C) The opposition continues to cry foul on several procedural questions, and there are numerous accounts alleging that the government and "U" Party promised positions, projects and other spoils in exchange for congressional votes. A range of observers allege that only such a "fire sale" can explain how the three-month logjam in Congress was broken. Thus far, no evidence of wrongdoing, beyond normal political horse trading, has emerged. NEXT STEPS, REFERENDUM BY MARCH? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The bill now moves to the President's desk for signature, and then to the Constitutional Court. Uribe's supporters hope to expedite the court's review by submitting all documentation in advance, so that it renders a final verdict within 90 days (instead of the normal maximum of six months). If the court approves, the Registrar would then have about three months to organize the referendum, which could theoretically happen in February or March. The referendum cannot be held on the same day as an election (e.g., legislative elections on March 14),but other referendum questions can be included with the reelection question. For example, it is likely that a question will be included on establishing an exception to the constitutional ban on life sentences for cases involving the rape of a minor. The addition of this high-profile item could help increase voter turnout. Presuming the referendum reaches the required turnout of 7.3 million voters, if current polling trends hold, Uribe would easily win the referendum (see ref B for more on obstacles). A LEGAL CONUNDRUM -------------- ¶5. (C) Besides the aforementioned procedural steps, another major hurdle that Uribe supporters are brainstorming to resolve is how to reconcile the legal requirement in the "Law of Guarantees" that a sitting president must declare his candidacy by November 30 given that the referendum legally allowing him to declare his candidacy probably will not be approved until early 2010. Possibilities include amending the law (requiring yet another battle in the Congress) or arguing that the referendum (as the will of the people) supersedes the law. Both "U" Party Secretary General Mario Solano and "U" Senator Carlos Ferro admitted that Uribe's supporters had yet to solve this legal puzzle. However, if the past weeks are any indication, Team Uribe will likely find a way around this and the other remaining hurdles, allowing the electorate to have the final say. COMMENT: URIBE ALSO HAS A SAY -------------- ¶6. (SBU) While it is clear that the Uribe Administration is pulling out all the stops to make the referendum a reality, Uribe's final intentions remain a mystery. He has yet to publicly (and even privately beyond perhaps his closest circle) state whether he will run for reelection. Interior Minister Cossio said on September 2 that Uribe would hold off on declaring his intentions until after the results of the public referendum. Some observers suggest that Uribe is keeping the referendum alive to avoid lame duck status, but will claim victory from the public support and eventually step aside "for the good of democratic institutions." Others, convinced he wants to extend his legacy to twelve years, point to Uribe's competitive streak and a widespread belief that only he can lead Colombia in these trying times of internal terrorism and external threats. "U" Party members have confirmed that the strategy has been to keep the referendum as "by and for the people," and not about Uribe's wishes. By keeping silent, Uribe keeps the option of gracefully bowing out if any of the remaining steps become too difficult to overcome. The several Uribe supporters who have their own presidential ambitions will have to wait until he makes up his mind. The deadline for those potential candidates to declare their candidacies is March 12, so the wait could be a long one. End Comment. Brownfield