OPPOSITION OUTREACH TO CHAVEZ OVER DCA IRKS GOC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 002588 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL CO VZ SUBJECT: OPPOSITION OUTREACH TO CHAVEZ OVER DCA IRKS GOC REF: A. BOGOTA 2520 ¶B. BOGOTA 2449 ¶C. CARACAS 01043 Classified By: DCM Brian A. Nichols Reasons 1.4 (b and d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Several Colombian opposition politicians--most notably former President Ernesto Samper--visited Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in Caracas between August 6-8. All expressed a desire to serve as a bridge between the two countries during the current tensions. The Government of Colombia (GOC) frowned on the visits, publicly reiterating that only the executive branch has the authority to conduct foreign policy. Still, the visits appear to have generated results--Chavez decided to return his Ambassador to Bogota, and he told opposition leaders he would begin to "unfreeze" relations with Colombia. Chavez and the opposition leaders appear to be trying to use the U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) and bases issue for political fodder, but polls show consistently high support for the United States and Uribe--and low ratings for Chavez and the Colombian left. End Summary. COLOMBIAN OPPOSITION REACHES OUT, GETS RESULTS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Former Colombian President (1994-98) Ernesto Samper of the opposition Liberal Party visited President Chavez in Caracas on August 6. Samper met with Chavez for several hours, then issued a statement that he had listened to the BRV's concerns about the proposed USG-GOC Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA - see ref A). For his part, Chavez announced he was glad to begin to "de-Uribize" dialogue with Colombia and said the only way the GOC could defuse the crisis was to refuse to allow USG access to its bases. Still, Samper said he was able to facilitate communication between Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro and Colombian Ambassador to Venezuela Maria Luisa Chiape. Samper also stated that he would brief President Uribe about the meeting, though Chavez later clarified that Samper would not be a mediator because there was "no possible mediation" in the current crisis. ¶3. (U) The next day, Liberal Senator Piedad Cordoba led several members of the "Colombians For Peace" group to Caracas for a meeting with Chavez. During the Cordoba meeting, Chavez announced he would return BRV Ambassador to Colombia Gustavo Marquez--whom he had recalled on July 28--to Bogota, though he also insisted relations would still be "frozen" (ref C). Chavez and Cordoba also announced they would create a series of "peace bases" in the region to counteract what they called the USG-GOC "war bases," starting in Meta, Colombia, and in the Ecuadorian department of Sucumbios, site of a GOC strike in March 2008 that killed Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) Secretariat member alias Raul Reyes and caused Ecuador to break diplomatic relations with Colombia. Cordoba also announced she planned to travel to Quito to discuss the issue with Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. ¶4. (U) Chavez on August 8 received a delegation from the Alternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democratico Alternativo, or PDA) led by PDA President Jaime Dussan. Chavez told Dussan he would reestablish full diplomatic and economic relations with Colombia, according to an August 11 announcement by the PDA's Commission on International Affairs. Dussan also remarked that Chavez had declared he was ready to talk directly to Uribe about normalizing bilateral relations. (NOTE: Despite these conciliatory remarks, Chavez told Venezuelan troops on August 9 they should be "ready for combat." End Note). GOC SAYS NO INTERNATIONAL ROLE FOR OPPOSISION -------------- ¶5. (U) The GOC responded with a tersely worded statement pointing out that under the Colombian Constitution, foreign affairs are the exclusive province of the executive branch, and that no Colombian official could violate that precept. Most other public figures followed party lines, with pro-Uribe politicians such as Andres Felipe Arias and former Foreign Minister Maria Emma Mejia (whom Chavez had publicly suggested as a possible mediator) supporting the GOC statement. Top Uribe advisor Jose Obdulio Gaviria went further, denouncing what he said was a "plot" against Uribe by pro-Chavez opposition members. Meanwhile, opposition leaders like PDA President Carlos Gaviria and Liberal BOGOTA 00002588 002 OF 002 presidential precandidate Cecilia Lopez applauded the outreach efforts as sensible solutions to solving the current crisis. On August 13, a hastily convened meeting of the President's Foreign Affairs Advisory Committee--which includes Samper and other former Colombian heads of state--affirmed the competency of the Executive Committee to conduct foreign policy. CHAVEZ, OPPOSITION, STAND TO GAIN LITTLE -------------- ¶6. (C) Analyses in the Colombian media have suggested the opposition members were hoping to make electoral hay out of the bases issue, that they saw the Chavez meetings as a way to burnish their international credentials, and that Chavez saw the meetings as an inroad to influence Colombian politics. Polls, however, suggest neither the opposition nor Chavez will get much traction from the issue--or from each other. Although polling results are not yet available about the base issue specifically, the July Gallup poll of Colombia's four largest cities shows positive ratings for the United States (65 percent positive) and the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (65 percent support),both of which have been consistently positive since 2008. Meanwhile, about 73 percent approve of Uribe's handling of international relations. Conversely, 65 percent of those polled have an unfavorable opinion of Venezuela, and 71 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Ecuador. In the May 2009 nationwide "Gran Encuesta" poll, 46 percent of Colombians gave Piedad Cordoba a negative rating, with 38 percent rating her favorably. Brownfield