REELECTION EFFORT RUNNING OUT OF STEAM--AND TIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 002482 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL CO SUBJECT: REELECTION EFFORT RUNNING OUT OF STEAM--AND TIME REF: A. BOGOTA 1853 ¶B. BOGOTA 2246 Classified By: Ambassador William R. Brownfield, reasons 1.4(b&d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) President Uribe's allies and opponents alike believe support is evaporating for the referendum to allow Uribe to run for a third term--and all agree time is running out to save it. The referendum bill faces delays in Congress and in the Constitutional Court which could significantly affect the GOC's ability to hold the referendum by mid-to-late November. Any later than that would potentially violate the law that requires a sitting president to declare his intent to run for reelection six months before the election date. In the face of the dwindling time, Uribe-allied parties are beginning to position themselves for a 2010 election without Uribe. Still, Uribe allies have options to keep the bill moving through the remaining steps, and most observers expect them to fight to the end. End Summary. CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT WANING -------------- ¶2. (C) The bill's first hurdle is legislative reconciliation, as the House and Senate were unable to agree on competing versions of the bill (the Senate version would allow reelection in 2010, the House version in 2014) before the end of the last Congressional session. Before the new congressional session began on July 20, Uribe allies believed the process would move quickly, as prominent Uribe allies such as Jose Obdulio Gaviria warned the bill would have to pass by mid-August. However, a meeting of House conciliators on July 29 had to adjourn until the first week of August because it failed to reach a quorum--too few Uribe supporters showed up. In addition, House President Edgar Gomez and other pro-Uribe legislators may have to recuse themselves from the conciliation because of an ongoing investigation into potential improprieties in the House's approval of the referendum (see para 5). The stalled decision on recusals and the naming of replacements will only add to the time constraints. Feeling this pressure, Jose Obdulio Gaviria told us on July 30 he had grown pessimistic about the reconciliation process. ¶3. (C) Senator Efrain Torrado of Uribe's "U" party (and First Vice President of the Senate) told us the erosion of legislative support stemmed from the loss of enthusiasm for the reelection project among many members of the party--himself included. Torrado emphasized that the party would continue to back the referendum out of loyalty, not conviction, meaning that few of its members would take political (or legal) risks to ensure a third term for Uribe. Liberal Party General Secretary Jose Noe separately told us much the same thing, arguing that a lack of zeal among Uribe-allied legislators would slow the process to a crawl, allowing other pressing legislative matters--including discussions of rising regional tensions and a debate over the GOC's negotiation of a Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States--to postpone the reconciliation until at least late August. Senator Torrado, Cambio Radical advisor Gustavo Torres, and Alternative Democratic Pole founder/advisor Camilo Gonzalez (currently director of Bogota-based think tank Indepaz) agreed with the plausibility of that timeline, and blamed the delays on the poor performance of "U" party president Luis Carlos Restrepo. CONSTITUTIONAL COURT APPROVAL UNCLEAR -------------- ¶4. (C) Should Congress approve the bill, the reelection measure would move to the Constitutional Court for a decision on its constitutionality. This might also be a lengthy process--the Court will need about three months to make a ruling. Noe and Gonzalez separately predicted that opposition parties and groups will try to delay the process by demanding hearings and other procedures that would have to be held before the three-month decision process would start. Still, Constitutional Court Vice President and former Uribe advisor Mauricio Gonzalez told us earlier this year the referendum bill would likely get through the Court, though he added that Court members remain wary of handling too much political baggage in the vote. ¶5. (C) In addition, the Supreme Court's investigation of 86 pro-Uribe lawmakers for voting for the referendum bill before National Electoral Council approval could allow the BOGOTA 00002482 002 OF 002 Constitutional Court to nullify the Congressional votes, effectively killing the referendum. Most contacts say this possibility is remote, but did agree that the legal questions raised by the investigation would certainly delay the Constitutional Court's decision. All of these potential delays and opponents will make it difficult to hold the referendum by mid-to-late November. Any later than that would run afoul of a Colombian law which requires a sitting president to declare his intent to run for reelection six months before the election (May 2010 in this case). LOOKING TO A FUTURE WITHOUT URIBE -------------- ¶6. (C) The growing uncertainty surrounding reelection is leading political parties to begin making 2010 election plans that do not include Uribe. The U Party's Torrado told us he and other party leaders hoped to build the party's future around former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos. Torrado said Uribe had been an excellent wartime president, but that Santos would be a better choice for consolidating and building on Uribe's security gains. Still, he maintained that the referendum was the U party's "Plan A" and that the party would only shift its support to Santos if the referendum effort failed or if Uribe chose not to run (reftel A). ¶7. (U) The Conservative Party (PC)--until recently a solid member of Uribe's legislative coalition--is making more concrete plans to run its own presidential candidate in 2010. The party, which backed Uribe in 2006, will go forward with internal primaries on September 27. Former Agriculture Minister Andres Felipe Arias and former Colombian Ambassador to the UK Noemi Sanin are the leading PC candidates (NOTE: Sanin had considered running for the "U" party's nomination if Uribe chose not to run (reftel B) but the party's late-July decision to cancel its primary to focus on reelection closed that option. End Note). Colombian media also reported on July 31 that the PC had invited former Defense Minister Marta Lucia Ramirez to run in its primary. ¶8. (C) Meanwhile, 12 of the 15 senators from Cambio Radical (CR)--also in the "U" coalition--publicly announced on 29 July they would support the presidential bid of CR leader German Vargas Lleras. CR advisor Torres and the Liberal Party's Noe separately confirmed press rumors that the two parties were working toward an alliance for the 2010 presidential and congressional elections. Noe also noted that Liberal chief (and former Colombian President) Cesar Gaviria would not run in 2010, which would leave Vargas Lleras as the coalition's unified candidate. DOOR NOT CLOSED, URIBE ALLIES PRESS ON -------------- ¶9. (C) Although the timeframe is getting tighter each day, most observers believe that, with a concerted effort, a referendum is still possible if the Congress approves a reconciled bill in the first half of August. Uribe on July 30 opined publicly that Congress could reconcile the two bills as soon as the first week of August, while longtime congressional advisor (and "U" party insider) Cesar Barrera told us that the Constitutional Court could expedite the process in the interest of putting the question of reelection to the Colombian public. Still, Senator Torrado observed that Uribe may not have the enormous amount of political capital it would take to achieve this. He pointed to the administration's "humiliating" failure to win internal legislative leadership positions the week of July 20 as evidence that Uribe's political hold may be slipping, while local press analyses point to the parties' jockeying for position as evidence that fewer political leaders believe the reelection bid will succeed. ¶10. (C) Despite the challenges, few observers expect Uribe and his allies to go down without a fight. Jose Noe told us he believes Uribe is committed to see the referendum through to the end, regardless of the political cost, and both Torrado and Torres agreed with the assessment. Noe added that the Liberal Party would continue to work hard to scuttle the referendum. Moreover, Noe, Torres, Torrado and Gonzalez independently reported to us that Jose Obdulio Gaviria, Luis Carlos Restrepo, Roy Barreras, and other leading Uribe allies are working to form a breakaway party aimed at attracting pro-Uribe politicians from parties currently in the "U" coalition--presumably to keep them from pressing for Uribe to stay in office. Brownfield