THE URIBE COALITION: LESS THAN SOLID

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 002246 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM KJUS CO SUBJECT: THE URIBE COALITION: LESS THAN SOLID REF: BOGOTA1853 Classified By: Ambassador William R. Brownfield Reasons 1.4 (b and d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) President Uribe's legislative coalition is focused on changing the Constitution to allow Uribe to run for a third term in 2010, but the House and Senate must reconcile differing versions of the reelection bill before it can go forward. After Congressional approval, Colombia's Constitutional Court must approve, after which a nationwide referendum must take place. If the reelection effort fails, or if Uribe decides not to run, the U Party candidate will probably be former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, who continues to outpoll all other potential candidates. Still, it is unclear whether the U coalition will rally around Santos--or any other potential Uribe successor--leaving the door open for former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo to succeed in the event of splintering within both the governing coalition and the opposition. End summary. U PARTY: REELECTION OR JM SANTOS -------------- ¶2. (U) The U Party, along with Cambio Radical, most of the Conservative Party--and some Liberals--are focused on trying to change the Constitution to let President Alvaro Uribe run for a third term in 2010. The bill to allow reelection passed all four required votes in Congress, but the House and Senate were unable to reconcile separate versions of the bill (the Senate version would allow reelection in 2010, the House version in 2014) before the end of the last Congressional session. Congress will try again in a Conference Committee during its next session, which starts July 20. Even with a fast resolution in Congress (by no means a foregone conclusion) the delay, added to the required Constitutional Court review, probably means that the legally mandated referendum on the change could not happen until early 2010--with congressional elections set for March, and the presidential vote in May. Polling shows some uncertainty whether the referendum would reach the required 25 percent voter threshold, but Uribe would easily win the referendum and a third term. ¶3. (C) As reported in reftel A, if the effort to amend the Constitution fails or if Uribe decides not to run, the U Party candidate will probably be former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos. U Party President Luis Carlos Restrepo told us that Santos and Uribe do not trust one another. Still, Santos has wide support within the party, and is quietly planning his campaign. A Gallup poll taken in early July shows that Santos's favorability continues to rise, with fully 60 percent of those polled giving him a favorable rating (his highest marks since the days immediately after the Operation Jaque rescue of 15 FARC-held hostages, including three Americans) and 22 percent giving him an unfavorable rating. Santos also led all other candidates--not including Uribe--in a hypothetical first-round ballot in the poll. Recent efforts by the Ecuadoran legal system to arrest and try Santos for the March 2008 Raul Reyes bombing operation may, paradoxically, increase his electability. U COALITION CANDIDATE UNLIKELY -------------- ¶4. (C) Restrepo predicted that personal and partisan rivalries within the U coalition would almost certainly rule out a unified coalition candidate if Uribe does not run--unless Uribe works with U and Conservative Party leaders to impose one. Similarly, Secretary of the Presidency Bernardo Moreno told us in May that the coalition would splinter into various individual factions without Uribe on the ticket. Conservative Party chief Senator Efrain Cepeda told us that Uribe was the only non-Conservative party candidate likely to receive his party's backing. Even so, party heavyweights Carlos Holguin and Fernando Araujo (former Interior/Justice and Foreign ministers, respectively, under Uribe) oppose reelection, and many Conservatives consider Santos a poor candidate due to his "total lack of charisma." ¶5. (C) Still, party leaders appear to be moving forward to try to forge consensus within the coalition. Cepeda told leading daily El Tiempo that Restrepo had accepted in principle a proposal for both parties to change their internal primaries from September 27th to late November to let them agree on a joint candidate. It is not clear, however, that such a move would pass muster with the National Electoral Council. Restrepo also told us he was looking beyond the coalition by trying to talk with the center-left Alternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democratico Alternativo, or PDA) and other small parties. He said he wanted to achieve minimum consensus among Colombian parties on issues such as illegal armed groups, regional policy, and institutions in effort to reduce politicization in these key issues. He conceded this would be difficult against the backdrop of reelection. OTHER CANDIDATES FROM THE COALITION -------------- ¶6. (C) Noemi Sanin made national headlines with her July 11th announcement that she would soon resign as Ambassador to the United Kingdom and return to Colombia to launch her own presidential bid. Sanin had told us in January that she would not run against Uribe, but that she believed he was unlikely to run again. Several leading dailies interpreted her decision as a signal the referendum is likely to fail or that Uribe has decided not to run. Sanin also told us she thought she was well-positioned for a third run at the office (after unsuccessful attempts in 1998 and 2002) because she was stronger on the social and economic issues she thinks will be at the heart of the 2010 election. According to the July Gallup poll, Sanin has a 58 percent favorability rating and an overall name recognition of 80 percent. According to local press, Sanin has not decided which party she will seek to represent, and both the Conservative and U parties appear to be interested in courting her. ¶7. (U) Former Agriculture Minister Andres Felipe Arias (known as "Uribito" for his resemblance and closeness to the President) resigned his post to stand for the Conservative Party's nomination. Still, he is unabashed supporter of reelection and has made clear he will end his campaign immediately if Uribe runs. Arias's poll numbers are mixed--the July Gallup poll showed him with a 35 percent favorability rating and a name recognition of 51 percent, but with a four percentage point lead over Sanin in a joint U-Conservative primary. Other potential coalition candidates include Cambio Radical leader German Vargas Lleras--who opposes reelection even though most of his party supports it--and Uribe ally Rodrigo Rivera, who is still a member of the Liberal Party. FAJARDO COULD BE BIG WINNER -------------- ¶8. (C) Former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo believes Uribe will not run and that the rifts in the U coalition open the door for him to win in the second round against any non-Uribe candidate. Secretary of the Presidency Moreno told us in May that he feared just this outcome, saying that Fajardo was the only candidate who would benefit from a splintering U coalition. Fajardo also appears to benefit from infighting within the PDA (reftel B) and other opposition parties--the July Gallup poll shows a narrow first-round race between Santos (36 percent) and Fajardo (31 percent),with PDA leader Carlos Gaviria a distant third (10 percent). BOTTOM LINE -------------- ¶9. (C) The horses are organizing themselves at the starting gate, but until Uribe's status is clarified, we do not really know if or how many others will run. Brownfield