REELECTION BILL PASSES FINAL SENATE VOTE - THREE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001587

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO
SUBJECT: REELECTION BILL PASSES FINAL SENATE VOTE - THREE
STEPS REMAIN

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer
Reasons 1.4 (b and d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) The Senate approved a bill on May 19, that would
modify the constitution to allow the 2010 reelection of
President Uribe in the fourth, and final, vote on the measure
in Congress. The House version, which would allow for
reelection only in 2014, and the Senate version will need to
be reconciled in conference committee. House President
German Varon told us he will try to block the 2010 version,
but most observers expect the Senate version to eventually
prevail. The measure would then move to the Constitutional
Court for review, and then to a referendum. Constitutional
Court Magistrate Mauricio Gonzalez implied the Court would
approve the bill in time to allow for a referendum in
November. Uribe maintains a solid approval rating of 71%,
but signs of vulnerability have emerged, and approval of his
handling of the economy, unemployment, and corruption have
slipped. End summary.

REELECTION BILL PASSES FINAL SENATE VOTE
--------------

2. (C) The bill that would change the Colombian Constitution
to allow President Alvaro Uribe to run for a third term in
2010 passed its fourth and final vote by a 62-5 margin in the
Senate on May 19. Senate President Hernan Andrade told us
the vote was originally set for May 4, and then for May 13,
but the Senate failed to reach quorum. Andrade told us that
the recent resignations of GOC coalition senators as a result
of the parapolitical scandal and pressure from six Uribe
coalition senators looking for bureaucratic perks led to the
delays.

NEXT STEP: RECONCILIATION
--------------

3. (C) The Senate bill will need to be reconciled with the
House version, which only allows for reelection in 2014, in
conference committee. House President and Cambio Radical
Party member German Varon opposes immediate reelection, and
told us he will name members to the conference committee who
are against the 2010 reelection. U Party President Luis
Carlos Restrepo announced that he will try to have Varon
recused from the reconciliation process by the House Ethics
Committee for violating his "neutrality." Varon said his
recusal would be illegal and immediately challenged in court.



4. (C) Andrade and presidential advisor Jose Obdulio Gaviria
told us that Varon would be "committing political suicide" if
he tries to block the measure. Still, Varon will leave the
House presidency on June 20, and a new president more
amenable to immediate reelection is expected to be named for
the next Congressional session starting July 20. Hence, the
Senate version will likely move ahead in July at the latest.

COURT REVIEW AND REFERENDUM
--------------

5. (C) Once the bill is reconciled in House-Senate
conference, the reelection measure will move to the
Constitutional Court for approval, and then to a popular
referendum. Constitutional Court Magistrate and former Uribe
legal advisor Mauricio Gonzalez told us the timing for
reconciliation, Court approval, and a vote would be tight,
but said the GOC is still on schedule to hold the referendum
by mid-to-late November. Any later than that would run afoul
of the Law of Guarantees, which requires a sitting president
to declare his intentions six months before the presidential
election. The Court will need approximately 90 days to make
its ruling.


6. (C) Gonzalez said the Court would be hard-pressed to
settle the 2010 vs 2014 issue if it remains unresolved in
Congress, but he did not rule out a Court decision on this
issue. He concluded that the Court would not want to incur
the political cost of delaying a decision until a referendum
was no longer viable. If approved by the Court, the
referendum would require a majority vote with a minimum 25%
turnout (7.2 million voters) to pass.

OPPOSITION PLANS ABSTENTION CAMPAIGN
--------------

7. (U) The opposition Liberal and Polo Parties plan to launch
a campaign to encourage abstention in the referendum, in the
hopes of killing the reelection effort through a lower than
required turnout. Liberal Party Chief and former-President
Cesar Gaviria told the media after the Senate vote that
reelection would be "inconvenient, unconstitutional, and
illegal." Far-left Polo Party President Carlos Gaviria said
reelection could lead to a "dictatorship" in Colombia.

URIBE STRONG IN POLLS, BUT VULNERABLE
--------------

8. (U) Uribe remains popular, with approval ratings in the
low-70s. Still, vulnerabilities have recently emerged due to
a slowing economy, rising unemployment, and several
corruption scandals. A May Gallup poll showed Uribe with a
71% job approval rating, down from the July (post-Operation
Checkmate) high of 86%. Moreover, for the first time since
2003--and for only the second time in his presidency--a
narrow majority of 49%-48% disapproved of Uribe's management
of the economy. Sixty-nine percent disapproved of Uribe's
handling of unemployment. Approval of Uribe's handling of
corruption since July also plummeted from 77% to 51%.
Despite the difficulties, U Party President Luis Carlos
Restrepo and Jose Obdulio Gaviria remain upbeat that Uribe
will be able to mobilize the votes needed to pass the
reelection referendum.
Brownfield