KYRGYZSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY

UNCLAS BISHKEK 000989

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR CA/FPP: EHOLMES, CA/VO/F/P: MEARL, DS/CR/VG
DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC
POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION MANAGERS
FRANKFURT FOR RCOS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS KFRD KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Bishkek conducted a validation study of
B1/B2 and referral issuances. As in the previous validation study,
post combined the results from DHS's Advanced Targeting System
(ATS),the Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS),and
follow-up telephone calls. The study covered 100% of B1/B2 and visa
referral cases from October 1, 2007 to December 1, 2008. The sample
group consisted of 1421 applicants and it showed a total rate of
5.1% of applicants who overstayed or adjusted status. END SUMMARY.

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Data Collection and Methodology
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2. (SBU) B1/B2 visas comprised approximately 43.5% of the total NIV
workload for this period. Post looked at all the B1/B2 visa
issuances from October 1, 2007 to December 1, 2008, and at 298
referral issuances on visa categories other than B1/B2s. The total
sample group was 1421 individuals. The whole sample group was
submitted to CA/FPP who, as in previous years, kindly provided
assistance in obtaining arrival and departure information via ATS
and ADIS. According to the initial results, 106 applicants
overstayed or adjusted status. Post then made telephone calls to the
applicants who showed no departure records to confirm if they had
actually overstayed. The follow up calls showed that the actual
number of applicants who did not have a departure record and were
unreachable through the phone calls, and therefore had presumably
overstayed, was 30. An additional 42 had adjusted their status. In
total, 72 applicants, or 5.1% of the total, did not depart in line
with their original visa application.

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Comments
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3. (SBU) Post examined the biographical data of the applicants who
overstayed or adjusted status. Of these 72 applicants, only 13
applicants (18%) are 60 years and over, 17 applicants (24%) are from
36 to 59 years, and 42 applicants (58%) are 35 years and under.
Therefore for the period covered in this validation study, almost
sixty percent of the applicants who deviated from their visa
application were 35 years or younger. Post took an even closer look
at this last and largest group and found that 57% of those
applicants are 24 years or younger.


4. (SBU) In comparison with the previous validation study, the
percentage of applicants who overstayed or adjusted status decreased
from 6.3% to 5.1%. The higher refusal rate for this period could be
one of the reasons for this decrease. According to reports generated
using the NIV system, the overall refusal rate increased from 25.8%
during the period of the previous validation study to 31.7% during
the current one.

Gfoeller