FORMER KYRGYZ DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER IBRAIMOVA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BISHKEK 000907 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KG SUBJECT: FORMER KYRGYZ DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER IBRAIMOVA PESSIMISTIC ON CURRENT POLITICAL OPPOSITION REF: (A) BISHKEK 236 (B) BISHKEK 206 (C) BISHKEK 831 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Deputy Prime Minister Elmira Ibraimova briefed Pol/Econ Chief August 5 on the current political situation in Kyrgyzstan, her recent trip to the U.S., and the issue of political asylum for a local mid-level opposition member. Ibraimova is well known to the Embassy and in March approached the Embassy regarding her plans to bring together four other opposition leaders to form a "unified group" to oppose President Bakiyev in the July Presidential election. Ibraimova painted a pessimistic political picture in Kyrgyzstan, in particular the lack of a viable opposition to President Bakiyev. She indicated that the current opposition would be divided into two groups by the government: a group of opposition figures that would be co-opted by the government and another opposition group on the outside which the government would use force and violence to silence and minimize. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On August 5, former Deputy Prime Minister Elmira Ibraimova met with Pol/Econ Chief to discuss the political environment in Kyrgyzstan, her recent trip to the U.S., and the issue of political asylum for a local mid-level opposition member. Ibraimova had previously told the Embassy in March that she was attempting to bring together four other opposition leaders to form a "unified group" to oppose President Bakiyev in the July Presidential election (REFTEL A). Now she told Pol/Econ Chief that she had recently returned from the U.S. where she had met with a variety of USG officials and nongovernmental organizations. She called her trip to the U.S. "productive and successful." ¶3. (C) Turning to the post-election political environment, a confident Ibraimova stated that the current opposition leaders were "history" and that the final page in the history books had been turned when opposition leader Atambayev announced on election day that he was no longer a candidate. Ibraimova said that the current opposition would be divided into two groups: a group of opposition figures, including Atambayev, that would be co-opted by the government and another opposition group on the outside which the government would use force and violence to silence and minimize. Regarding her current efforts to build an opposition to President Bakiyev, Ibraimova said that she was in the process of developing a project to publish the non-government view of the key challenges facing Kyrgyzstan. ¶4. (C) Ibraimova raised the recent beating of a mid-level opposition leader, Emil Kaptagayev, and her desire that he receive political asylum. Shortly after the elections, unknown individuals beat Kaptagayev severely and threatened to kill him, allegedly kidnapping him and taking him to a location outside of Bishkek for execution. Eventually, the assailants abandoned Kaptagayev and he returned to Bishkek. Kaptagayev later returned to the Atambayev opposition offices in Bishkek where he received an anonymous phone call threatening him, asking if he had not learned the previous lesson. Kaptagayev is currently in hiding. Ibraimova also told Pol/Econ Chief that Kaptagayev is the author of the Kyrgyz language novel, "Bloody Road," based on the murder of former Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov (RETEL B) which has been published under a pseudonym. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Ibraimova did not raise with Pol/Econ Chief her efforts in March to organize a viable opposition to President Bakiyev. Her pessimism on the current opposition is noteworthy given her previous access to opposition leadership. It appears that the late July failed efforts by the opposition to protest the election results (REFTEL C), have left the opposition rudderless. Many observers, including Ibraimova, speculate that main opposition leader Atambayev may get a position in the new government which would remove him as a major opposition figure. Ibraimova could not identify any new opposition, stating in general that the "younger generation" would have to take over. GFOELLER