AMBASSADOR'S OFF-THE-RECORD DISCUSSION WITH KYRGYZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L BISHKEK 000084 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO MARR MOPS RS KG SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S OFF-THE-RECORD DISCUSSION WITH KYRGYZ MEDIA INSIDERS Classified By: AMBASSADOR TATIANA C. GFOELLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d) SENSITIVE. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Following a long-standing tradition of informal gatherings, the Ambassador met with five media insiders to discuss, off the record, current events in Kyrgyzstan. They discussed media reports about the loan that Russia has offered to Kyrgyzstan, reportedly in exchange for Kyrgyzstan closing the U.S. Air Base on its territory. They also discussed the economic crisis, recent changes in government personnel, President Bakiyev's recent speech, and the threat of Islamic extremism. End Summary. RUSSIAN DOLLARS FOR THE BASE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) One journalist stated as fact that the Russian two and a half billion dollar loan to Kyrgyzstan is conditioned on Kyrgyzstan expelling the U.S. Air Base. He said President Bakiyev will make his decision on February 4, when he is scheduled to meet Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Another journalist expressed skepticism, saying even if Bakiyev strikes a deal with Russia, Russia would likely pay out only a portion of the promised funds. PUTIN VS MEDVEDEV: CONFLICTING STRATEGIES IN CENTRAL ASIA -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The journalists told the Ambassador that Putin and Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev have conflicting strategies in Central Asia. Putin's strategy is to give Kyrgyzstan two and a half billion dollars in exchange for Kyrgyzstan closing the U.S. Air Base, thereby "re-colonizing" Kyrgyzstan. On the other hand, Medvedev is more interested in supporting Uzbekistan, as evidenced by his recent trip to Tashkent, where he stated that the Central Asian countries with water resources need to consider the interests of their neighbors in using those resources. When the Ambassador asked why Russia had to choose between supporting Uzbekistan and supporting Kyrgyzstan, the journalists conceded that Russia, in fact, could support both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. However, one journalist said that Uzbekistan would not want Russia to give Kyrgyzstan the two and a half billion dollar loan because "they want to keep Kyrgyzstan dependent on Uzbekistan." BAKIYEV'S RECENT SPEECH TO THE NATION -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The journalists discussed Bakiyev's January 27 �00A;speech to the nation. While they had hoped the speech would explain the recent personnel changes, the speech did not address that issue. Instead, the main message that the journalists took away was that Bakiyev is willing to accept constructive criticism and is reaching out to his political opponents. One journalist noted that "constructive" is a subjective term. Another journalist said that the message of the speech was disconcerting -- if the President is reaching out to opponents, it means that Kyrgyzstan's problems have reached critical mass, overwhelming him and forcing him to cast about for new ideas. The journalist said, "If he's reaching out to the opposition, it is because he has no idea what to do." KYRGYZSTAN'S FUTURE AS AN INDEPENDENT STATE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Journalists expressed concern about demographic projections that more Kyrgyz will emigrate to Russia and Kazakhstan and that more Uzbeks will immigrate to Kyrgyzstan. The journalists agreed that Kyrgyzstan has made little effort to integrate the ethnic Uzbek population in the south. One journalist noted that the Government has invoked the 2008 media law, which strictly requires that fifty percent of programming be in the Kyrgyz language, on only two media outlets. Both are Uzbek-language stations that have been warned by prosecutors for broadcasting in a non-state language. One journalist predicted that because of these demographic trends and the refusal of political leaders to engage ethnic minorities, Kyrgyzstan will disintegrate between the years 2015-2020. He said that Kyrgyzstan "cannot continue to exist as a united state." ¶6. (C) The journalists discussed whether Kyrgyzstan would accept a dictator like Vladimir Putin. The journalists agreed that Putin is incredibly popular in Russia. The consensus was that Kyrgyzstan would accept a dictator, but "he would have to be a 'superman,' someone who flew fighter planes, a hero." The journalists agreed that Bakiyev does not fit the bill. They characterized Bakiyev as inconstant, impulsive, someone who does not fully understand a situation before he makes a decision and often regrets decisions he has made, and someone who is nice as an individual but corrupted by the office of President. KYRGYZSTAN'S ECONOMY RIPE FOR CRISIS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The journalists were very pessimistic about the future of the Kyrgyz economy, noting that Kyrgyz exports to Russia and Kazakhstan have fallen due to the world-wide economic crisis. All agreed that Kyrgyzstan's migrant workers abroad will not return to Kyrgyzstan. One journalist expressed alarm that, according to him, the Canadian gold-mining company, Kumtor, makes up forty percent of the economy and that there is only one company like Kumtor in Kyrgyzstan as opposed to dozens in neighboring Kazakhstan. (Comment: This figure appears inflated. The actual figure is probably closer to ten percent. End Comment.) He said that development of the economy is more important than development of democracy, adding "Democracy is for a fat, rich society." One journalist quoted the Minister of Economics, who publicly declared that in February or March 2009 Kyrgyzstan will suffer an economic and banking crisis. The journalists said that Kyrgyzstan does not have officials who understand the economy. They speculated that Bakiyev appointed Omurbek Babanov to the position of First Deputy Prime Minister because Babanov is a successful businessman. IS ISLAMIC EXTREMISM A THREAT? -------------- ¶8. (C) Most of the journalists claimed that Islamic extremists do not pose a bigger risk to the government than the opposition. One called it a "Western fear" and argued that despite its long history as a Musli country, Kyrgyzstan has never been radicalized. One journalist disagreed, claiming that 12% of the Kyrgyz population already belongs to Hizb-ut-Tahrir and that, contrary to popular belief, Hizb-ut-Tahrir is more active in Chuy and Issyk-Kul Oblasts in the north than in southern Kyrgyzstan. He did acknowledge that most of Hizb-ut-Tahrir's growth has been because members of the group receive monthly stipends as opposed to ideological alignment with the group's beliefs. He claimed that low-level members of the group receive a stipend of five dollars a month, with increases with more active participation. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Though the journalists were drawn from opposition media outlets, their opinions represent the views of the majority of Kyrgyzstan's media community. However, investigative journalism remains a developing art in Kyrgyzstan, and these opinions should be viewed as a barometer of what is being discussed "on the street" versus insights into actual journalistic investigations. GFOELLER