KYRGYZ MEDIA MOGUL ON MANAS AIR BASE CLOSURE RUMORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000082 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN AND SCA/PPD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO PINR KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ MEDIA MOGUL ON MANAS AIR BASE CLOSURE RUMORS REF: A. 08 BISHKEK 1266 ¶B. BISHKEK 67 ¶C. BISHKEK 80 BISHKEK 00000082 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 27, owner of the AKIpress news agency and well-connected political observer Marat Tazibekov discussed the current political state of play and the latest rumors about Manas Air Base with the Ambassador. Tazibekov said that recent rumors about the possible closure of the Base in exchange for Russian loans are a result of inadequate message control by Presidential staff. Tazibekov said that Bakiyev would prefer that Russia and the United States negotiate directly on the status of the Base and simply let him know what the final decision is. He noted that there is increasing government pressure on the remnants of independent media in Kyrgyzstan. Tazibekov said the United States should be generally pleased with current ministerial changes, as the new group is younger and more attuned to improving economic development and the investment climate in Kyrgyzstan. Tazibekov suggested that well-connected politicians are interested in establishing a less formal communications link to the Am bassador. End Summary. You Have to Remember He Started as a Factory Manager -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Marat Tazibekov, owner of the AKIpress news agency and well-connected political insider, met with the Ambassador on January 27 to discuss current press reports about the possible closure of Manas Air Base and recent personnel changes in the government and various ministries. ¶3. (C) Beginning immediately with the Base closure rumors, Tazibekov said that it was his impression that Bakiyev would prefer that Russia and the United States negotiate directly on the status of the Base and simply let him know what the final decision is. Tazibekov said that these rumors did indeed begin with a media interview with President Bakiyev (See Ref A). However, he said that there are more questions than answers about this interview. Tazibekov said that for no apparent reason, Presidential Staff arranged for an exclusive interview for Bakiyev with a little-known Russian internet news agency, "Svobodnaya Pressa" (svpressa.ru), which was published on December 15. This agency had only opened in November 2008 and did not have an established track record that would have earned them an interview of this level. ¶4. (C) In the interview, Bakiyev is quoted as saying that it is time to consider the closure of Manas Air Base, but did not link it to Russian loans. Tazibekov said that such a statement could be understood as a mistaken statement of his true intentions. Tazibekov pointed out that Bakiyev started his career as the manager of a very small factory and that he is happiest when he is giving out small tokens of gratitude to staff or participating in handovers of supplies or equipment to organizations. Tazibekov said that Bakiyev does not deal with the press with the appropriate level of caution or precision, and possibly let this comment slip out. ¶6. (C) Tazibekov said that he was attempting to build a consensus among his contacts that even if a loans-for-Base deal existed, Russia is not currently economically able to follow through on its part of the deal. ¶7. (C) Tazibekov said that almost immediately after AKIpress reported this interview, he was contacted by the Presidential Administration who demanded he remove it from the agency's web site. After some negotiation, he complied, but not before the reports were picked up by other news outlets. He noted that the text of the interview had also been removed BISHKEK 00000082 002.2 OF 003 from the Russian news agency's web site. (Note: On December 17, the Kyrgyz state news agency, Kabar, posted a short summary of the Svobodnaya Pressa interview under the title, "Head of State: No Talk about Expansion of U.S. Airbase in Kyrgyzstan." Kabar took down the article after a couple days. End Note.) Crack Down on Independent Media Continues -------------- ¶8. (C) Tazibekov said that there was a general trend of tightening control over the media. When asked why would the government want to increase control over AKIpress, a news outlet that has remained steadfastly neutral, he said that the content was irrelevant to the government; what was important was that AKIpress was outside their immediate control. Tazibekov also speculated that this was the issue with (local RFE/RL affiliate) Radio Azattyk. He noted that many rural residents received the vast majority of their information from Azattyk, and that news on Azattyk often conflicted with news reported on government controlled news channels. Government Reshuffling: Maybe Not a Bad Thing -------------- ¶8. (C) Moving to the latest round of government personnel changes, Tazibekov speculated that the new group may be more receptive to Western influences. While acknowledging that these changes may be in preparation for possible opposition protests in the spring, he noted that many of the new appointments were businessmen with an interest in economic development and an improved investment climate. He also noted that many of the old ministers were in their 50s and that most of the new appointments are in their 40s with fewer historical and sentimental ties to Russia. People in the Know are Looking for a Back Channel -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Tazibekov implied that he had prepared for his meeting with the Ambassador by meeting with several well-connected pro-American Kyrgyz political figures or possibly family members very close to President Bakiyev. He said that during his meetings he had tried to dispel a common belief that the United States was interested in instability in the region. The Ambassador interrupted Tazibekov and emphasized that stability was very important to the United States and that reoccurring rumors that the United States was building lines of contact with religious extremists to use against the Kyrgyz government were absolutely false. Tazibekov said that several of his unnamed interlocutors, again implying they were either Bakiyev family or White House advisors, expressed a desire for an informal channel of communication to the Ambassador where issues could be informally and quietly discussed and explained. Tazibekov promised to provide the names of his contacts after receiving their permission to do so. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Tazibekov is well-connected, particularly on issues having to deal with the media. However, he is consistently pro-American, and his circle of contacts is also Western-oriented, and his comments should be viewed in that light. It is interesting that Tazibekov (as Ryskulov had as reported in Ref A) also pointed to the now-deleted December 15 Bakiyev interview as the original source of the public Base closure stories. One possible interpretation of the energetic attempts to hide the interview is that Bakiyev may have let slip a hint of a future decision on the Base before it had been finally, formally decided. Tazibekov's offer to help facilitate contacts with sympathetic politicians appears BISHKEK 00000082 003.2 OF 003 sincere. This could mean that there is still time to influence Bakiyev's final decision on the status of Manas Air Base. GFOELLER