KYRGYZ ELECTION: GOVERNMENT KEEPS CLOSE EYE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000783 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI) E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS PHUM KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ ELECTION: GOVERNMENT KEEPS CLOSE EYE ON TALAS OPPOSITION RALLY REF: A. BISHKEK 156 ¶B. BISHKEK 511 BISHKEK 00000783 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Lee Litzenberger, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: An rally for opposition candidate Atambayev in Talas on July 15 was largely representative of the campaign to date: While the authorities were clearly watching the rally closely, and were not above some petty harassment -- changing the time of the permit at the last minute, imposing non-sensical restrictions on vehicle traffic -- for the most part, they stood back and let the rally happen. End Summary. Authorities at the Gate -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Poloff and FSN visited Talas, a small provincial capital in Northwestern Kyrgyzstan, on July 14-15 to meet with representatives of several political parties and NGOs. During their visit, they also observed a rally in support of Almazbek Atambayev, the candidate of the opposition United People's Movement (UPM). In spite of being the site of a January confrontation between the government and opposition (ref A),the town was absolutely tranquil, before and after the rally. The rally itself was largely representative of the campaign to date: While the authorities were clearly watching it closely, and were not above some petty harassment -- changing the time of the permit at the last minute, imposing non-sensical restrictions on vehicle traffic -- for the most part, they stood back and let the rally happen. ¶3. (SBU) The rally was originally scheduled for 10:00 a.m. at the Talas sports stadium on July 15, but at about 8:30 that morning, according to a UPM contact, the Talas Mayor's Office told them that the time for the one-hour rally was changed to noon. (Note: Under a public assembly law passed in 2008, political groups must obtain permits from local authorities to hold meetings. End note.) The militia arrived at the rally site well before 11 a.m., and began turning cars away from the stadium and its parking area, leading to traffic snarls. The Atambayev campaign truck bearing the portable stage and sound system made it through the first militia checkpoint, but the local police chief refused to open the gates to the stadium complex. After a half hour of argument, with opposition members taking pictures and militia officers demanding that they stop, the police chief relented, leaving the organizers about five minutes to set up the stage. Shortly after that, Atambayev's caravan of white Toyota Land Cruisers arrived, which the militia let pass without incident. A Man on Horseback -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Speeches began with the crowd still trickling in from wherever they had found parking. In front of a crowd that eventually numbered about 700, opposition Ata Meken Party chair Omurbek Tekebayev said that he "will not forgive those who sleep" through this election, and former Prosecutor General Azimbek Beknazarov, in a reasonably successful attempt at a stem-winder, cast the goal of the UPM as the end of family rule, once and for all. ¶5. (SBU) Atambayev, speaking without notes in Kyrgyz, appeared to be making up his speech as he went along. He began with a recollection of the mighty deeds of Manas (the Kyrgyz epic hero),and from there went to an implicit accusation that the Bakiyev Government is anti-Manas because they erected a statue of Manas' killer in Bishkek, a rhetorical leap that clearly puzzled the audience. He also attacked the government for arresting those who call out the name of Allah, an apparent criticism of the government response to events in Nookat (ref B). BISHKEK 00000783 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) The remainder of Atambayev's speech consisted of personal reflections ("the (ethnic) Uzbeks in Osh received me very warmly,") and criticisms of the Bakiyev government, including several labored attempts to compare Bakiyev to former President Akayev. As he did at a previous rally in Naryn, Atambayev ended by donning a traditional chief's robe and mounting a white horse, raising his arms to acknowledge the audience's applause. Bakiyev is Popular (Outside the Cities) -------------- ¶7. (C) On July 14, Poloff and FSN met with Japar Turjanov, the Ak Jol Party Regional Coordinator for Talas, who was visibly proud that President Bakiyev had chosen to start his campaign with a rally at Manas Ordo in Talas Oblast, and said that the President had "inspired" those who attended. Turjanov was emphatic that the majority of the population of Talas Oblast supports Bakiyev, but later in the conversation noted that Bakiyev's support is relatively weak in Talas city itself, and far stronger in rural areas, where people are far more appreciative of the Bakiyev government's achievements. Turjanov also said that local party members had developed their campaign work plan on their own, and that the central campaign office had provided only materials. Civic Alliance: The "Inspired" Were Ordered -------------- ¶8. (C) On July 15, Poloff and FSN met with Shamil Murat, the Talas Regional Coordinator of the Alliance of Civic Organizations, an election monitoring group. Murat said that the local authorities are suspicious of his group's activities, and have come to his office to question him, but that he has not actually been threatened. According to Murat, the Alliance plans to have two observers at each of the 100 polling stations in Talas Oblast, as well as at the four district election commissions and the Talas city election commission. ¶9. (C) Regarding his observations of the campaign, Murat said that administrative resources are being widely used to support the President. As one example, he said that almost all of the "inspired" people who packed the President's campaign opener at Manas Ordo were teachers, students, and government workers who had been ordered to attend. Murat also observed that Manas Akmatbekov, the Deputy Interior Minister and a Talas native, had recently been appointed to a second post as the Chief of the Talas Regional Militia Office, and he has been actively campaigning for Bakiyev. In the past few days, according to Murat, Akmatbekov has given 20,000 som (465 dollars) to a village school for renovations, and donated the use of a grader to repair local roads. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) In addition to Manas Akmatbekov, at least one other Talas-born high-ranking government official has been hanging out in Talas recently. Among the crowd on the police side of the gate at the opposition rally, Pol FSN noted Alymbay Sultanov, a former Director of the Drug Control Agency, and currently the Chief of the Department of Defense, Legal Order and Emergency in the Prime Minister's Office of Government. It was unclear whether Sultanov was directing or just observing the drama at the gate, but his and Akmatbekov's presence indicates that the government is keeping a close eye on opposition activities in Talas. And well they might: Talas was one of the places where 2005's "Tulip Revolution" began, which launched then-opposition leader Bakiyev into power. LITZENBERGER