KYRGYZ FOREIGN MINISTER'S TOUR D'HORIZON OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000600

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ FOREIGN MINISTER'S TOUR D'HORIZON OVER
LUNCH AT AMBASSADOR'S

REF: A. BISHKEK 598

B. BISHKEK 543

C. BISHKEK 521

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Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador hosted Foreign Minister
Sarbayev for lunch on June 9. They discussed
election-related issues, Kyrgyzstan's international
relations, and problems with Uzbekistan. Sarbayev said that
President Bakiyev had agreed to an increase in the number of
OSCE observers who would be invited to monitor the July 23
Presidential Election. He sought the Ambassador's advice on
strengthening relations with Saudi Arabia and the Arab world.
Sarbayev also complained about relations with Uzbekistan and
claimed he had advised Bakiyev to confront Uzbek President
Karimov directly. End Summary.

More Election Monitors
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador hosted Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek
Sarbayev for a one-on-one lunch on June 9. Sarbayev told the
Ambassador that President Bakiyev would be meeting with OSCE
Parliamentary Assembly President Joao Soares later that day,
and Bakiyev would inform Soares that Kyrgyzstan would allow
"as many observers as the OSCE wants" for the July 23
Presidential election. (Note: As reported in Refs B and C,
Kyrgyzstan had issued an invitation to the OSCE which limited
the number of observers from OSCE/ODIHR and from the OSCE
Parliamentary Assembly. Per June 10 press reports, Bakiyev
proposed to double the number of OSCE observers, which should
satisfy OSCE/ODIHR's interest in conducting a standard,
statistically valid Election Observation Mission. End Note.)


3. (C) Sarbayev claimed that the OSCE was quick to criticize
Kyrgyzstan, but never offered words of praise for things done
right. Sarbayev said he hoped the increase in election
observers would "get the OSCE off our backs" and make the
relationship with the OSCE less adversarial. He asked for
U.S. support in this regard.

Opening to the Arab World
--------------


4. (C) Sarbayev said he was concerned that Kyrgyzstan was
becoming isolated internationally, "wedged" between China and
Russia. He said that he was trying to keep a line open to
the West, but he also wanted to strengthen ties to the Arab
world in order to balance China and Russia. Sarbayev said
that, in particular, he wanted to strengthen ties to Saudi
Arabia, and he asked the Ambassador for her advice because of
her recent service as Consul General in Jeddah and in other
parts of the Arab world. "You know the Saudis," he said.


5. (C) The Ambassador asked why Sarbayev wanted to strengthen
ties with Saudi Arabia, when Kyrgyz government officials and
others had previously indicated that Saudi interests were
funding extremist elements in the country and the Saudis took
such a strict approach on religious issues. Sarbayev blurted
out: "Because they are the richest and we need financial
help." Giving Sarbayev a primer on the Arab world in general
and the Gulf states in particular, the Ambassador suggested
that Sarbayev might want to consider strengthening ties to
other Arab states in addition to Saudi Arabia, particularly
those more in synch with Kyrgyzstan's secular approach to
governance.

More Complaining about Uzbekistan
--------------


6. (C) Once again, Sarbayev turned to complaints about
Uzbekistan and disagreements over water issues. Commenting

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on the MFA-organized visit on June 5 to the Toktogul
Reservoir and the Kambarata 2 hydroelectric construction
project (Ref A),Sarbayev moaned that Uzbek Ambassador
Pulatkhodzhaev had run around during the tour telling
everyone that Kambarata 2 was a bad idea. Sarbayev claimed
that he had advised Bakiyev to confront Uzbek President
Karimov directly over the disagreements concerning water,
dams, and electricity.

Gossip from Fellow FMs
--------------


7. (C) Sarbayev relayed gossip about the Russian leadership
gleaned from his recent meetings with fellow regional foreign
ministers (the recent SCO Foreign Ministers meeting in
Moscow, and the EU Troika-Central Asia meeting in Dushanbe).
Sarbayev said that according to his colleagues, there is
"terrible tension" between Russian President Medvedev and
Prime Minister Putin. "It's gotten so bad that their wives
don't even talk to each other any more." Medvedev had been
cautioned against confronting Putin, but Medvedev was
"stubborn" and "legalistic." "He thinks that because he is
legally the President, he really does have certain rights and
intends to stand on them."


8. (C) Sarbayev said he and others were concerned that the
situation could become "incendiary," as the two divide power
and businesses and "could even lead to another Russian civil
war." The Ambassador pointed out that as the two appear to
have largely the same program and the same ideological
approach, it was unlikely that any conflict between the two
would lead to a wider conflict in society. Sarbayev nodded:
"Actually, you're right. There will probably be a Palace
coup instead of war. But we're nervous. War would be a
disaster for the entire world." Sarbayev concluded that
"everyone in the Russian government" loves Russian Foreign
Minster Lavrov because "he's tough," and morale "had never
been higher" in the Russian MFA.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) We see Bakiyev's decision to allow more election
observers from OSCE as a step forward that should strengthen
the credibility of OSCE/ODIHR's Election Observation Mission.
The core OSCE/ODIHR team arrived in Bishkek June 9.
GFOELLER